When everyone is not optimistic about paper money, including paper money issuers, gold becomes a helpless alternative.

Some central banks are buying gold. The World Gold Council announced not long ago that in the first half of this year, the world's major central banks increased the scale of gold purchases, and the purchase volume in the first half of the year has exceeded that of last year. Central bank gold reserves increased by 203' this year, compared to 76t a year-ago increase. South Korea, Mexico, the Soviet Union and Thailand are important buyers this year. In 1986, governments reduced their holdings of gold in general, and now the winds are reversed.

Gold rises, the economy declines.

Gold has a clear correlation with macroeconomic strength. Since the 70s, gold has seen two distinct upward cycles, one from the 70s to the early 80s: the other after the global financial crisis, when gold jumped above $1,600 an ounce from $680 in November to over $1,600 on July 19, 2011. Previously, gold has been in a relatively stable phase of a slight rise, rising from November to $680 eight years later, with an average annual growth rate of 1 kick, and in the past two and a half years, the gold price has increased by more than 408 per year. Going back another decade, when the economy was strong, gold was hovering at the bottom for a long time.

The reason for the sharp rise in gold in the 70s is very clear: recession, monetary easing, and rising debt ratios. After two oil crises, the United States, Japan and other countries fell into a state of economic stagflation, which added fuel to the fire of the United States' withdrawal from the Bretton Woods system, paper money was freed from the shackles of gold, and the depreciation was unlimited. At the same time, the U.S. government's debt has accumulated at an alarming rate, doubling from $100 million in 1970 to nearly $1 trillion in nine years.

The price of gold rose sharply beyond anyone's imagination. In 1973, the price of gold rose above the US dollar per ounce mark, three times the official exchange rate of $35. In 1979, gold incarnated into the Yellow River carp, constantly jumping the dragon gate, and in the first half of 1979, the gold price exceeded 360 US dollars / ounce, and then the integer threshold was broken one by one. By January 1980, the gold price had been pushed to an all-time high of $852 before the price increase.

When the economy rises and inflation falls, so does the price of gold. The iron-fisted Fed Chairman Paul = Volcker raised the federal funds rate in 1981 to 1983, and inflation in the United States fell rapidly from the previous average of more than 10%. When the recession cycle passes, the economy rises, the dollar appreciates, and gold fades.

Now, global investors are paying homage to Mr. Gold once again. In the post-financial crisis era, the price of gold has been rising, and recently it has reached the stage of wild dance. Since January this year, gold has risen from around $1,400 per ounce to a slight decline due to better economic data, but when the U.S. economic data fell again in early July, gold prices after July 4 saw a rare eleven consecutive yang, breaking through the highest ever $1,600. Although from a technical point of view, gold prices have a pullback requirement, but in the long run, the upward pattern will be maintained.

Although the U.S. debt ceiling has been raised, people cannot forget the weak economic data in the United States, and global inflation has not fallen because of the gentle interest rate hikes by the central banks of Europe and China, and the same as in the 70s, the debt crisis in the United States has risen wildly beyond people's imagination. According to the report of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, as of May 16 this year, the U.S. federal government's debt has reached the statutory debt ceiling of $1,429 trillion, and according to the data of the U.S. Treasury Department, the current public debt of the U.S. federal government has exceeded 90% of GDP, exceeding the 60% warning line.

With the uncertain outlook for economic recovery, the depreciation of the dollar, and the slower than expected growth in the US economy, there is no choice but to stand up and pay homage to Mr. Gold once again after the 70s.

After the negotiation, Sandywell left with a trace of excitement, a trace of hesitation, a trace of worry, for him, this war must be the largest war he has ever participated in, currency wars, trade wars to oil wars, and even gold wars, a series of actions involved together, making the whole battle extremely complicated, if there is a link negligence, then it will inevitably suffer unimaginable losses, he needs to go back and prepare immediately.

Lin Yu looked at his disappearing back for a long time before sighing.

On October 1, 198, when China began to celebrate the National Day, a sudden storm descended on the United States, and the US financial market suddenly came out with a bombshell news, that is, the Soviet Union's nuclear weapons would be test-fired in the eastern waters of the border between Canada and the United States, and at the same time, the Soviet Union was discussing the tearing up of the agreement signed by the United States and the Soviet Union in 1985 to limit medium- and short-range missiles.

At the same time, the news of the signing of a cooperation agreement between the European Union and the Soviet Union brought about the joint deepening of cooperation between the European Union and the Soviet Union in the development of nuclear weapons and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

This news obviously gave people the meaning that the Soviet Union wanted to provoke the United States, and made the people in the United States feel that a mountain rain was coming.

Although the major American media tried their best to downplay the impact of this news, it was still spread by the sensitive market investor population, which soon caused a wave of panic selling in the major stock markets in the United States, and the Dow Jones index and the major stock indexes of the New York Stock Exchange fell one after another, among which the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 59 points in a very short period of time.

U.S. Treasury bonds were also sold off by creditors and cashed out, and the price of Treasury bonds fell sharply.

Soon, the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in Treasury interest rates, and the Federal Reserve also announced an increase in Treasury bonds, slowing the downward trend in Treasury bonds, and then the Fed announced that it would inject money into the market to boost the stock market.

At the same time, U.S. President Ronald Reagan also climbed Chapter 611, the dollar entered commodity trading, futures also climbed, and the price of gold in New York rose by $13 in one day, from $341 an ounce to $354 an ounce, and gold prices in other regions also rose.

However, this is only the first day, and in the next few days, due to the influx of funds, the price of gold still rose sharply, and within a few days, the price of gold rose from more than $610 per ounce, and global investors have chosen gold, oil and other safe havens.

Affected by the collapse of the U.S. stock market, major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe also fell sharply, and the economies of Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, which had just stabilized, encountered a cold winter again.

The global stock market is in turmoil, and an invisible war is unfolding.

On October 20, the volatility of the U.S. stock market that lasted for several days made waves again, and the wave of selling U.S. Treasury bonds surged again, although the U.S. Treasury Department has announced that it will raise the interest rate on Treasury bonds, and the U.S. media and rating agencies have continued to express their optimism about U.S. bonds, but it is still difficult to stop the selling trend.

On the same day, the major funds led by the U.S. Quantum Fund swept the major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region one after another, affecting the economic turmoil in the United States to the Asia-Pacific region, and Southeast Asia, which is more dependent on foreign capital, bore the brunt of the major stock markets.

This situation has also led to a rapid exit of funds ready to enter Southeast Asia in favor of other sectors, such as Japan, commodities such as gold and oil.

Originally, after the Plaza Accord, the yen appreciated relative to the United States, but at this time, because of the flood of dollars, the relative depreciation of the US dollar caused Japan's appreciation of the US dollar to go further, attracting American investors to rush into Japan, and the Japanese stock market, real estate market and other markets are also showing unprecedented activity.

In terms of oil, since the Federal Reserve announced the implementation of loose monetary policy and injected $500 billion into the market, the price of oil and other commodities has risen sharply, and the oil trading price index in New York and London has also risen sharply.

This trend has also triggered a large number of investors who are optimistic about oil to rush in, and the entry of a large amount of money has also led to the continuous rise in oil trading prices.

In a remote building in New York, USA, Sandywell and Jason and their party are constantly busy, and the whole room is in a state of busyness as the numbers on the large screen continue to scroll

On the side, after Jason finished the task in hand, he said to Sandy, "Sandy, what to do next?" ”

Sandywell wandered back and forth around the large frequency curtain for a while, thought about it carefully, and then said in a deep voice, "Oil prices will inevitably fall, prepare to short."

Jason thought for a moment, nodded, and then returned to his seat and continued to operate.