Fourth, eat food

The next episode of the world economy began to be explained by Mao Dan, he continued: "In developed countries, more than 30 years ago, industrial production capacity has developed to a peak, there is a certain degree of overproduction in China, there are too many cars produced by automobile factories, and some houses are built that cannot be sold. Pen | fun | pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 ｉｎｆｏ

Politicians are at a loss in the face of this bad market situation, and they are asking economic experts for advice on how to deal with it. Economic experts have come up with a great idea for them, and that is to use consumer credit to boost the economy. Politicians adopted this good policy, so banks began to lend, and citizens in developed countries could enjoy car loans, home loans, shopping installments and credit card purchases, and merchants invented a series of credit sales methods to attract customers for promotion.

The repayment period of bank mortgages can be extended to up to 30 years, and car loans can be repaid within five years. This way of stimulating consumption has really worked well, many families who can't afford to buy a house have bought a new house with a housing loan, and many people have bought a new car with a car loan. The business of the merchants is booming, and the country's economy is growing like a blowout.

However, all of this is to take the money of the next 30 years in advance and spend it this year, which is a kind of practice of eating grain, which not only eats some of the next year's grain this year, but also spends part of the money for the next 30 years in advance.

In China's agrarian society, people pursue a surplus every year, and the most taboo is to eat grain, because it indicates that the last meal has not been eaten.

Once this financial innovation invented by developed countries becomes a common phenomenon in society, problems will follow.

House slaves and car slaves use mortgages and car loans to buy back new houses, new cars in moving into new homes, after the joy of driving a new car, they will bear the burden of repaying the loan every month, this burden has been under heavy pressure for more than ten years or decades, in the years and months of loan repayment, they are thrifty, and the life is extremely heavy, which greatly compresses the living consumption in the next few decades--------。

Economic development depends on the people's living consumption, and if a part of the people becomes a house slave or a car slave, and they spend part of the money in advance in a short period of time that can only be earned more than ten years later, this will cause the social phenomenon of high and low national consumption.

This kind of social phenomenon has caused great ups and downs in economic development, and when the economy is in a big upswing, the people concentrate on loans to buy houses and cars, and this concentrated release of purchasing power greatly stimulates economic growth and stimulates all sectors of society and industries to prosper abnormally. This kind of prosperity lasts for about five to ten years in a country, and after ten years, the people have almost bought houses and cars, and all that is left is to pay off their debts.

In the days of debt repayment, the people's living expenses fell sharply, causing the development trend of a sharp decline, which is what economists call an economic recession.

The decline in consumption in the economic recession in turn causes factories to reduce production and stop production, which causes workers to be laid off and unemployed, workers have no wages, and the monthly loan repayment plan will be frustrated, and then the bank mortgage cannot be recovered, resulting in a large number of bad debts and bad debts------。

The economic situation of the industry is not good, and the tax revenue is reduced, which in turn affects the salary income of the civil servants, so that their consumption decreases, and the whole economic situation enters a vicious circle, and the good life of the people has a huge contrast with the bad life.

In the good days, the wages of the people have risen year by year, the bonuses have also increased step by step, and the economic situation of the country is prosperous. However, while the economic bubble was blown up at the same time as the boom, housing prices soared, prices rose, and wages could not keep up with the rise in housing prices.

The economic bubble has blown real estate, real estate is under construction everywhere, roads are under construction, and infrastructure projects are springing up like mushrooms after a rain. These infrastructure projects have not only inflated the wallets of real estate developers and brought huge benefits to project employers, but also provided people with a lot of employment opportunities and led to the prosperity and development of industries related to engineering projects.

The development of everything in the world has a vertex, when things develop to the apex, it is like the maximum value on the positive curve, which is the inflection point of the curve, and the trajectory of the curve begins to decline from this point, and people start from this day to turn from good days to bad days.

In bad days, real estate cannot be sold because too many houses are built, unfinished buildings can only stand there because of the rupture of the capital chain, a large number of construction workers are laid off and unemployed, and related industries related to the construction industry are also in danger-------。

In fact, every global financial crisis is often accompanied by a skyscraper fever. The Great Stagnation of 1909 gave birth to the MetLife Tower and the Icon Building in New York, and the Great Depression of 1929 led to the creation of the Empire State Building and Chrysler Building.

In the 70s, the Sears Tower in Chicago and the World Trade Center Tower in New York were built to coincide with severe currency stagflation. The 1997 Asian financial crisis had the Kuala Lumpur Oil Twin Towers as a footnote, and after the 2008 financial crisis, a new round of skyscrapers such as the Burj Khalifa and the Pudong World Financial Center sprung up.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been four rounds of skyscraper fever around the world, each accompanied by recession and financial turmoil. Historically, we have seen that large-scale real estate construction has fueled an unprecedented economic boom, but it has also sowed the fuse of recession and financial turmoil, as exemplified by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by the U.S. government. It's really a success, and he is also a failure. He stopped here and rested.