Today is a special day, and I guess everyone wants to see my analysis, rather than how Ding Xu speculates in stocks and chases Tao Xia. And today's analysis will look back at the history of the past years in order to find a new line of thought and inspiration, and the word count will be higher. Therefore, this chapter is dedicated to analyzing the trend of the market.

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index once again hit a new high of 3,189 points.

For this point, many people don't feel it and don't know what it means.

And some old stockholders, presumably vaguely recalled, more than four years ago on the afternoon of November 11, 2o1o, in the previous magnificent market only stagnation of 2o% of the Chinese oil suddenly rushed upward, at 2:38 hit the position of the limit, at the same time, the Shanghai Index also hit a new high of 3186 points for the year. After that, PetroChina dived slightly, and the market also dived at the same time, and then fell sharply, until it fell to 2,661 points in January 2o11, and then began a years-long bear market, and finally fell to a low of 1,849 points on June 25, 2o13, down 42% from the high of 3,186 points.

After that, the market began to rise quietly, until July this year, when the pace was accelerated and rushed to more than 3,000 points in one go, and the shareholders realized that the bull market was really coming this time.

As I said before, we have to regain these lost highs.

Now that 3186 points have been recaptured, the next target is the small bull high of August 4, 2oo9, at 3478 points.

Of course, this goal is next year's goal, and it should be unlikely to be completed this year, unless the market rises and falls one day.

Today's commemoration is also due to the fact that the 28 phenomenon has been interpreted to the extreme by the main forces. The index rose sharply and reached new highs, but many stocks fell sharply against the market, and there was a tragic scene of nearly 300 stocks falling at the same time.

Thereinto. There are 77 down-limit stocks in Shanghai and 2o6 down-limit stocks in Shenzhen. There are also dozens of companies that are approaching the fall limit.

Small and medium-cap stocks performed the "stock market crash", of which only 33 small and medium-sized board stocks rose, only one rose by the limit, 618 stocks fell, and 87 stocks fell by the limit. Only 14 stocks rose on the GEM, only one rose by the limit, 78 stocks fell by the limit, and 333 stocks fell. There are more stocks that have fallen by more than 7%.

In the past, 100 shares fell to the limit. Either it appeared at the bottom of the stage, or it appeared when the top of the stage dived, and now it is undoubtedly not a stage bottom, and it is also accompanied by the phenomenon of China's oil once rising 9% intraday, Agricultural Bank of China closing the limit, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China once rising 8% and other aircraft carriers hitting the mark, so I feel that the market has begun to condense risks, and it is possible to start to stop moving forward in the near future, after completing the goal of recovering the high point of 3186 points in 2O1O. It began to move sideways or even fall.

There are two possibilities after that, one is that this wave of small bull market will end, which is very unlikely. Only 1o%, the second is still the first half of the break, next year from the spring annual report market, again to the second half of the bull market, this possibility is high, 9o%.

Because, although the economic data is still not good, several core motives of this bull market are still running, one is the easing of funds brought about by interest rate cuts. The second is the introduction of savings and wealth management funds due to the bull market effect, and the third is the driving force of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the reform of state-owned enterprises and economic innovation. Fourth, the need for high-level banks to issue new shares and implement the registration system. These three motives do not rest, and the registration system does not start. I don't think the bull market will end there.

I feel that some weighted stocks that have risen too much will rest, and index stocks that have taken a break for a period of time, such as some brokerage stocks that have been adjusted in place, will take turns to perform, so that the index will not fall too much, so as to retain the funds chasing into the bull market and maintain the bull market popularity.

In other words, heavyweight stocks are only taking turns to rest, and it is difficult to continue to fall sharply.

Therefore, in the next trading day, it is still necessary to put aside the index and make individual stocks.

So, where will the market hotspots be in the future?

I think the second-tier blue chips will still be a hot spot, when the elephants take turns to rest, the second-tier blue chips represented by the 6O1 Corps will also take turns to perform, just like when the big stars are resting, there will be second-tier singers who come up to sing and perform, so that the audience can have a show to watch.

At the same time, opportunities for small and mid-cap stocks will also be quietly coming.

The reason why this bull market will not end is because there is no bull market, there will only be two performance space, and there will be no performance time of eight with a good mass base.

Today, individual stocks in sectors such as agriculture have begun to perform in advance, rising sharply against the market.

Therefore, the time period for the ebb and flow of heavyweight stocks and the adjustment of stock indexes is the time for small and mid-cap stocks to perform on stage.

Although they are second- and third-tier singers, they are about to bloom their singing voices.

Why do I think so, let's start with the history of the 100-share limit.

The 100-share fall limit is either the last fall after the stock index has fallen continuously, and the strong stocks that have performed before have fallen to the limit, and everyone has returned to a starting line, and then started a new round of rise. Either the stock index has seen a stage high, and there is a big bearish, those stocks that have risen larger, funds have fled regardless of the cost, and finally a large number of stocks were smashed on the floor of the fall limit.

The former is the deliberate smashing of funds to stop and absorb chips, and the latter is the panic flight of funds. The two natures are completely different.

So, what is the situation today?

In my opinion, there are both.

It can be said that this situation has never occurred at the same time in the history of A-shares in the past.

Because of the 28 division, there has never been such a strict zhòng this year, the index has risen by 6o%, many small and medium-cap stocks have not only significantly underperformed the market in recent months, and some have even fallen against the market for a few months, and in this way, the main forces are still not satisfied.

So the question is, the big main forces are so enthusiastic? It is easy to make money in large-cap heavyweight stocks, so retail investors are driven over to make money, isn't this a live Lei Feng?

Hehe, whether to make money or take over, that's the key question.

If, as I predicted, the market will take a break after the market, the big heavyweights will find retail investors to take over, although it will not necessarily fall sharply, but at least the big funds can get out of the big heavyweights that have risen sharply before. Began to lay out other varieties, such as second-tier blue chips, such as small and mid-cap stocks. And then make a lot of money again.

And retail investors should be careful, although it is terrible to go short in the previous stage. But in a bull market, it's the most desperate and sad thing to go full and short many times over and over again - when the big weights are rising, you hold the small and mid-cap stocks, go full of them, and then finally switch positions and switch to the big weights. As a result, you have just finished swapping stocks, the big weights have rested, and the second-tier blue-chip, small- and mid-cap stocks have started to rise. You're full again. When you finally can't resist cutting meat one day, the big weights start to dance again, and the small and mid-cap stocks have peaked again. By the time you switch back to the heavyweights, the bull market is over......

During the whole bull market, you didn't understand what the big main forces wanted to do, so you kept repeating the tragedy of being full of empty positions, making a little money, and even losing money in the bull market.

This is not alarmist, the experience shared by the old shareholders of the alliance group, I also wrote a 10,000-word weekend analysis a while ago. In a bull market in any country. It is the first-tier stocks that rise first, and then it is the turn of the second- and third-tier stocks to perform, and then the first-tier stocks rise again. Repeated rotations, the last line of stocks ended the bull market.

The bull market of 2oo5-2oo7 is basically like this-

In the first stage, the first-tier stocks rose first, the small and medium-sized stocks rested, and the increase lagged behind the first-line large-cap stocks.

In the second stage, the small and medium-sized market rose and quickly made up for the gains. Even over the first-tier stocks, many investors have made small profits. Makes a lot of money.

The third stage came after the 53o tragedy caused by the emergency increase in stamp duty at the end of May 2oo7 at midnight. The small and medium-sized stocks peaked and fell, and the heavyweight stocks danced with the elephant, pulling the index from more than 4,000 points to 6,124 points.

In the fourth stage, in January 2oo7, after creating 6124 points, the end of the bull market was announced, and then the index fell all the way, but many small and medium-cap stocks followed the heavyweights after a wave of decline, but they hit new highs in 2oo8, becoming a bright spot in the bear market, represented by a number of small and medium-cap stocks such as Longping Hi-Tech. It wasn't until around May 2oo8 that it began to fall rapidly, and finally fell out of the bottom of 1664 points with the heavyweights, and started another round of small bull market. During this period, many shareholders lost both the index and a lot of money, and a few men who chased the wind seized the small and medium-cap stocks that rose against the market, once made money, but they were reluctant to go, and finally gave back their profits after May 2oo8 and lost a lot of money.

In short, institutions have made a lot of money, and most retail investors have made small profits in the bull market and big losses in the bear market.

Today there is a report that in this year's bull market, it is worth losing money earned in several years of bear market.

This is really a sad thing, and there are examples of this in our group.

But don't worry, as I analyzed the four phases of the bull market in 2oo5-2oo7, there is always a phase that belongs to you.

The root cause of nine losses out of ten stocks is that you don't set the right rhythm and always go in the opposite direction with big institutions.

These four stages, if you are in the first and third stages, dance with the big main force and do the first line of stocks. In the second and fourth stages, do small and mid-cap stocks, and your gains will be amazing. On the contrary, if you are completely opposite to the main force, you will not make much money.

Taking history as a mirror, we can know the rise and fall, and we can know the future.

To understand these four stages, we must be mentally prepared to switch rhythms.

Both large-cap stocks and small- and medium-cap stocks are allocated, which is a conservative strategy, so that whether the large-cap stocks rise or the small-cap stocks rise, you have some stocks making money, of course, there may also be some stocks in the loss, and the two offset each other, and you don't make too much.

And if you can step on every rotation rhythm and synchronize with the big main force at every stage, then you can make a lot of money. But this requires a very high level that ordinary investors can't do.

There is also a strategy similar to horse racing is to hold a breed to the death, and if the bull market does not peak, it will not be lost, so you can enjoy at least one or two stages of gains, which is expected to be close to the market average.

How to choose depends on each person's risk appetite.

…………

Similar to the second phase of the great bull market in 2oo7, when exactly will it start?

Today, when I was in the alliance group, I had a strong premonition that this 100-stock fall may be the beginning of the style switch, and it is also the turning point of the 28 to 82 market.

Why do I have this intuition? I can't tell, it's really just a gut feeling. Because the two-eight division has reached the extreme, this is very abnormal. I said in the group, No, it's a kind of intuition.

Tonight, I searched for the news related to the "100 shares falling limit", and vaguely found some clues of the main force

These are the clues. I don't dare to share it exclusively, so I naturally want to share it with readers, which is not necessarily right. It is only for your inspiration and ideas.

Let's start with several large number of individual stocks in recent years.

I'm going to quote some reports about a large number of individual stocks falling to the limit, so let's take a look. Déjà vu?

The first time, time, July 17, 2o12. From the report entitled "A shares yesterday 100 shares fell to the limit of the "spectacle" - "Following January 5 this year, the A shares for the second time this year there was a miracle of 100 shares falling to the limit. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a point intraday, once again rewriting a new half-year low, and swallowed all the rebound results of the past three trading days with a long black candlestick. At the same time, the two cities fell to 1o2 stocks, of which small and medium-cap stocks performed a "stock crash". There are as many as 78 stocks on the small and medium-sized board and the gem, and the "return" drama. Judging from the historical numbers, every market bottom is almost accompanied by a batch drop limit of individual stocks, and the 100-share drop limit on January 5 this year smashed out the "big bottom" of 2132 points on January 6. However, for this plunge, market participants are not so optimistic, analysts generally believe that the market is difficult to replicate the last "fall limit" after the trend of strengthening, this week not only to observe whether the market is a new low, but also to prevent the restart of the plunge. ”

Description: This time after the 100-share fall limit. The broader market did not stop its decline, and once again fell to the low of December 4, 2o12, at 1,949 points. After that, a decent rebound finally began, rushing to 2444 points. And on this day, there was also a good show of individual stocks falling in batches, although there were only 2O stocks falling to the limit, and it had not yet reached the Cheng dù of the 100-share falling limit, but after that, small and medium-cap stocks finally reversed magically.

The second time, time, December 4, 2o12. From the report entitled "" - "After a brief upward rush driven by the real estate and building materials sectors in early trading, the stock index was blocked and fluctuated by the 7-day line. Subsequently, wine, media, steel and other sectors collectively fell, and the rebound of the stock index came to an end. Afternoon. Led by the coal sector, the stock index fell quickly. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new low at its intraday low. Today's plasticizer turmoil is fermented again, the brewing sector fell 7%, the two cities fell nearly 2o stocks, the whole plate fell without a rise, and the trading volume of the two cities increased compared with the previous trading day. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported a ,,, turnover of 4.3 billion yuan; Shenzhen Cheng pointed out that the ,,, turnover was 35.9 billion yuan. ”

It shows that the market began on December 4, 2o12, rebounded from 1949 points to 2444 points, peaked and fell, and then fluctuated sideways, until it fell to 1849 points on June 25, 2o13.

Among them, the GEM index started from 585 points on December 4, 2o12, and rose to 1571 points on February 25, 2o14, an increase of about two times, and then there was a 100-share drop limit on this day, and the GEM fell by more than 8% on the same day, and a large number of previously strong GEM fell to the limit. However, the GEM became an immortal bird, falling to a low of 121o points on May 16, 2o14, and then stubbornly rose again, and a few days ago, that is, on December 16, it hit a new high of 1674 points.

The small and medium-sized board index started from 3557 points on December 4, 2o12, and rose to a high of 5218 points on May 31, 2o13, an increase of 46%, and then rebounded after a sharp fall, basically sideways, far inferior to the ChiNext index. On February 18, 2o14, it reached a high of 5426 points. After the 100-share plunge on February 25, it fell to 4,432 points, and on December 16, 2o14, it hit a new high in recent years, 5,898 points. Although the table is far inferior to the GEM during the period, and it is far from recovering the high of 7493 points set in 2oo9, many bull stocks have also emerged.

The third time, which I just said on February 25, 2o14, after the 100-share fall limit, small and medium-cap stocks began to gain strength and hit new highs.

And today. On December 22, 2o14, it was the fourth time that individual stocks fell to the limit.

There must be other individual stocks falling and stopping, time and length relationships. Let's not talk about it.

It is worth mentioning that between the first and second drop tides. In fact, there is a special fall limit, that is, on July 3o, 2o12, it was announced that it would establish a risk warning board and implement discriminatory price limits, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a draft for comments on the implementation rules for risk warning stock trading, which intends to limit the price increase of risk warning stocks to 1% and the decline of risk warning stocks to 5%. Other words. In the future, if it is "on the board", ST and *ST shares will be easy to go down and difficult to go up, and it will almost be a "dead end". On the same day, individual stocks fell sharply, and 1O7 ST shares were smashed to the fall limit.

However, this provision is only in the draft for comments, and has not yet been implemented. After that, ST shares still have an endless restructuring market, and the story of the black chicken turning into a phoenix is still frequently staged.

These experiences have always remained in my mind, so when I analyzed the announcement of 18 Zhuang stocks yesterday, I always had a hunch. The mad bull index should be over, and spring for small- and mid-cap stocks is coming. And today, 100 small and mid-cap stocks fell to the limit. On the contrary, it made my premonition stronger.

Today is the winter solstice, or is it the same sentence, winter has come, will spring be far away?

Therefore, for those readers who are unfortunate enough to be short, I have coded 5,000 words today and analyzed in detail the four stages of the last round of the bull market, as well as several ups and downs in recent years, just to tell you. The down limit is not terrible, the scary thing is that you can't see the main intention behind the down limit. And then panic to cut meat, frequent stock exchanges. Blindly following the herd, you may end up with even greater losses.

I don't want to see that, and I want my readers to make money on this bull run.

Without you, this book would not be where it is today.

Although my main income depends on stock trading, I have also had a decent income since I wrote the book, as well as the corresponding writer's honor, and I am very grateful to everyone.

I don't dare to say that my above thinking is necessarily right, but I believe that the long-term is golden thinking must be right. These ideas of mine are for your reference only, and I hope to inspire you to make the right choice.

And those analysts who shouted that there will be no more market in this bull market of small and medium-cap stocks after the 100-stock fall limit today, what they say, don't blindly follow it, don't blindly cut meat.

Again, I don't believe that a bull market will always have only a glimmer of heavyweights rising. The specific reason, I have analyzed it in detail yesterday, and the story of the old man and the braised pork has also been said.

There is a detail that after the announcement of Zhuang stocks over the weekend, some of the index stocks and blue chips that have risen continuously have stopped their pace, and brokerage stocks continue to consolidate today, and the second bureau of China Railway has also come to an end with a big black line covered by a dark cloud after six daily limits.

The stock market is a place that magnifies the weakness of human nature, for some sectors, you have to be greedy when everyone else is panicking, and you have to panic when others are greedy at the peak. Chasing less high, buying more bottoms, buying low and selling high, is the way to make money.

Having said so much, I just want to remind everyone to think more about the intentions of the main force before changing shares and cutting meat, and be careful not to fall into the trap. My personal time and energy are limited, and the unit is also very busy at the end of the year, so I can only take some time to broadcast it live in the alliance leader group today, mainly to analyze it in the chapters after the disk. I hope that you can read more stock knowledge and improve your analytical skills, so that you can grasp the hot spots and make more money in this bull market without reading my analysis.

Finally, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to the hardcore book friend of "Zailongwu", Book Friend 141211194348265, Captain B Rian, Gu Wang Jinlai_ Xiao Z, Shanghai Book Friend, Si Kou Zhongda, and "Guardian Forever 52O1314", a hardcore book friend who generously rewarded him as the leader of this book, and welcome to the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange.

At the same time, thank you for the 1,000 yuan reward from the alliance leader "Y Performance Stock", and I wish you a lot of money.

I wish you all a smooth investment. (To be continued)

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