Chapter 340: The Use of Magic Numbers

"Qianyuan Power is really boring, it's been the sixth day of refueling in the air today, and there is still no big move, do I want to change the short term to the long line, and the long line to dedication?" After closing, Qi Fei sighed a little speechlessly.

The short-term becomes long-term, and the long-term becomes dedication, which is the helpless ridicule of some shareholders after being trapped. Originally, I wanted to make a short-term, fast in and out, and fight for a few points of income, but because of chasing high, I was trapped by the main force, so I had to cover it and became a long-term. Unexpectedly, the stock price has been falling endlessly, and in desperation, I had to cut the meat and exchange shares, and the long-term eventually became dedication.

To whom did the lost part of the difference and money go? The main force, of course.

"It's not that it doesn't rise, the time hasn't come yet, let me pinch your fingers for you." Ding Xu laughed, pretending to be mysterious, "Since it didn't start yesterday, then we have to wait until the day after tomorrow, which is another time window." ”

"Well, why?" Qi Fei's eyes lit up and he asked.

"Day 8 is the magic number!" Ding Xu said with a smile.

"I'll go, it turned out to be this ......" Qi Fei smiled a little dumbly.

"Miracle, what do you mean by magic numbers? This thing can also be used to calculate when the stock will start? That's not a big way to make a profit. Treasured? Why don't you teach us? Hearing Ding Xu say this, Uncle Strange asked very excitedly.

"Well, that's a long story." Ding Xu scratched his head, and then began to explain, "This is a common method used by some technologists, so let's understand it, I'll talk about it." ”

The so-called magic number is a magic number discovered by the Italian mathematician Fibonacci in the 13th century. Namely: 1,2. 3。 5。 8,13,21,34,55,89,144…… The sum of the first two of these numbers is equal to the last number. For example: 1+2=3. 2+3=5…… 55+89=144。

A few characteristics of the magic number magic are:

One is the ratio of the previous number to the next number, and the ratio tends to be 0.618034, that is, an irrational number. For example: 1÷2=0.5;2÷3=0.667;3÷5=0.6;5÷8=0.625;8÷13=0.615...... 89÷144=0.618。

The second is the ratio of the latter figure to the previous one, and the ratio tends to be 1.618. For example: 5÷3=1.667;8÷5=1.6;21÷13=1.615;89÷55=1.618......

Third, compared with the two digits apart, the ratio is close to 0.382 and 2.618. For example: 8÷21=0.381;13÷34=0.382;21÷55=0.382;21÷8=2.625;34÷13=2.615;55÷21=2.619......

Fourth, 0.382 × 0.618 = 0.236

From the above calculations, it can be seen that the magic number basically changes around 0.382 and 0.618, thus deriving other numbers, such as 1.618, 2.618, 0.236......

Therefrom. The doctrine of the golden ratio was born, and the stock market is closely linked to numbers. As a result, a school of thought has emerged in the technocracy, which closely links the rise and fall of the stock market with magic numbers. For example, using the golden law to calculate, that is, using 0.382 and 0.618 as the gold coefficients, frame the rise and fall of stock prices. When approaching this boundary, the stock price begins to make a new move, either up or down.

For example, some technologists use gold numbers to calculate the rise of the market, believing that if there is no interval and no limit on the top and bottom, the stock price calculation can be extended indefinitely and calculated repeatedly.

For example, the Shanghai Composite Index started from 1047 points in 1999, and its first target was 1047× (1+0.382)=1446.96 points. Facts have proved that on June 14, 1999, the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to 1,400 points for the first time in 1999, and closed at 1,427 points at the highest point, basically close to 1,446.96 points. When this target is basically reached, the index begins to pull back to 1387 points, and then attacks the second target level of 0.618, otherwise it will be difficult to gain a foothold in the area of 0.382.

The second target is 1047× (1+0.618) = 1694 points. On June 25, the Shanghai Composite Index peaked at 1,705 points, slightly exceeding 1,694 points, and then pulled back to 1,593 points. In the next three days, the stock index intensified its volatility in this area, unable to achieve the third goal, and then came to an end.

For example, the first target is calculated with a low of 1341 points, that is, 1341× (1+0.382) = 1853.26 points, and it reached 1852.90 points on May 8, 2000. The second target was 1341× (1 + 0.618) = 2169.74 points, and on August 22, 2000 it reached 2114 points, just 55 points short, after which it began to fall.

When falling, it can also be calculated by the golden law, that is, the first target level of decline is: 2114-(2114-1341)×0.382=1819 points. Later, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to a minimum of 1,874 points on September 25, 2000, a difference of 55 points.

To the excitement of technologists who believe in golden numbers, this time the highs and lows are calculated to be 55 points apart, and after the two are canceled out, it is exactly the price calculated by the golden law.

Continuing to deduce, if the golden rule is used to calculate the first target level in 2001, then 1874 + (2114-1874) × 0.382 = 1965 points. The second target is 1874 + (2114-1874) × 0.618 = 2022 points. The third target is 1874 + (2114-1874) × 1 = 2114 points. Facts have proved that on January 8, 2001, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a maximum of 2,131 points, only 17 points short.

After the rebound, the theoretical calculation of the first target of the decline is: 2131-(2131-1874)×0.382=2032 points. The second target is 2131-(2131-1874) ×0.618=1972 points. The third target is: 2131-(2131-1874)×1=1874 points. As it turned out, by February 22, 2001, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen to a minimum of 1,893 points. The first and second targets have been crossed. 13 points away from the third target. After that, a big rally began.

According to this calculation, many of the bands of the Shanghai Index conform to the law of the golden ratio division method. So this discovery made the technocrats very excited, thinking that they had found a scientific method to measure the target level of the market.

The principle is the same when applied to individual stocks, sometimes you can find the bottom and top of a stock, and then combine it with the general trend analysis, so as to make both index and money.

For example, the technocracy that believes in the golden ratio once used the stock of Guyue Longshan as an example. On October 28, 1999, the lowest price was 10.25 yuan, so its rising height can be calculated as follows: the first target is 10.25×1.382 = 14.17 yuan, the second target is 10.25×1.618 = 16.58 yuan, and the third target is 10.25×2 = 20.50 yuan. In fact, on February 15, 2000, its stock price reached a maximum of $16.70, a tolerance of $0.12 from the second target. If it rushes up again, it should achieve the third target level, but it is not achieved and it starts to fall. At this time, the theoretical calculation of the decline of the stock is: the first target level: 16.70-(16.70-10.25)×0.382=14.24 yuan. The second target is 16.70-(16.70-10.25)×0.618=12.72 yuan, and the third target: 16.70-(16.70-10.25)×1=10.25 yuan. It turns out that the lowest on March 14 was 11.80 yuan. It falls exactly between the second target and the third target, with a difference of 0.92 to 15.5 yuan, which is more consistent.

If the rebound height is calculated, then: the first target level: 11.80 + (16.70-11.80) × 0.382 = 13.67 (yuan) the second target level: 11.80 + (16.70-11.80) × 0.618 = 14.82 (yuan) the third target level: 11.80 + (16.70-11.80) × 1 = 16.70 (yuan). Facts have proved that the second target was reached, and the highest price rose to 14.78 yuan on April 20, 2000, a difference of 0.04 yuan. The third goal was basically reached, and on July 5, the highest price reached 15.55 yuan, a difference of 1.15 yuan. At this time, the broad market index is also the starting point for starting to hit a new high of 2,000 points.

"It really sounds scientific!" Listening to Ding Xu's explanation, Tao Yaoyao said excitedly, "No wonder I always listen to stock critics say that they want to fall to the position of 0.618, as well as the resistance and support levels calculated with the golden ratio, which are originally calculated using this." ”

Well, that's really a common way for technologists, like calculating the top of a rising wave and the bottom of a falling wave. In addition, some traders often make stock prices to the relevant position because they also believe in the golden ratio, so they often start to adjust the stock price. Or adjust to the relevant position, and pull it back to make a wave of rebound. There are many such examples, and those technologists who believe in the golden rule are even more convinced of the correctness of this golden section method. So much so that in the stock trading software, there is this golden ratio division function. ”

Ding Xu replied, "However, sometimes there are obvious mistakes in the calculation of the price of the golden law, and not every band can be calculated using the golden ratio. It is important to take into account various other factors at the time. It must not be dogmatic. So we must not be superstitious about this magic number. Numbers are dead, people are alive, and we must be especially careful that the main force uses this method to deceive the line and mislead retail investors. So I don't use this method to calculate the rise and fall of the broader market and individual stocks, preferring to use the chip bar and moving averages to observe. Of course, as an auxiliary method, it is possible to use it, but definitely not to be superstitious. Because one of the most basic truths is that stock prices and indices can be artificially made, since they are artificial, they are not solved by one law, just like the divergence of the MACD indicator, it is not absolutely possible to lead to rise and fall, and it is possible to diverge and then diverge, and they will not fall. Just like the bull market in 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index began to diverge from 5,300 points, but then rushed all the way to 6,124 points. There are a lot of special exceptions that neither indicators nor the Golden Rule can solve. We must not only see examples that conform to the Golden Law and the Law of Indicators, but also examples that violate these laws. ”

…………………………… Dividing line ..............................

(Heartfelt thanks to "Hang Seng Index", Divine Blue, Chuan Huihao, Zhengfu Shaozi Zheng, Chen Yan Baby, Rampage Rookie, Uncle Wuji, Yi'an 0328, "Dingfeng KING" and other hardcore book friends generously rewarded as the leader of this book, welcome to enter the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange, I wish you to continue to make a lot of money.)

Let's talk about something, today someone in the miracle group (alliance leader group) is pulling people to open an account and recommend the so-called layout of stocks, the eyes of the masses are bright, and after the private chat information was reported to the administrator, this person has been kicked out of the group on the spot. This is the second time this kind of incident has happened to the Miracle Group, and although the Miracle Group and other book friend groups are quite pure compared to other groups outside, I still hope that there will be no similar incidents in the future. Now that the market is good, a few people would rather spend the price to be the leader of the alliance or subscribe to the group to attract people. If this kind of incident happens frequently in the future, I may consider closing the alliance leader group and not entering the group for the sake of everyone's financial safety. Here's a word in advance.

Hope you don't force me to go to such extremes. I also advise some people who want to fish in troubled waters, in the miracle group and other V groups, including ordinary book friend groups, anyone who has this kind of behavior will be kicked out, and will never be allowed to join the group again, please respect yourself. It's just a readership here, there's no room for your development, don't stare at this piece of resources, we'll just say one word, no!

Here is a reiteration of the common group rules of all book friend groups:

1. Because of the writing of the book "Super Retail Investors" at the starting point, it provides a readership for book lovers to exchange content on novels and stock trading. The purpose of the discussion is to communicate with each other, including working with stockholders to improve their stock trading skills, the readership never charges, and the group owners and administrators do not recommend stocks.

2. Free communication in the group, civilized and rational discussion, no foul language and advertising, no independent kingdom (such as pulling people in the group after the group, recommending stocks, selling software, etc.), not recommending precious metals and other businesses, and not having acts such as managing money on behalf of customers, otherwise the administrator has the right to kick people. Everyone is a book friend and a stock holder, in order to prevent Zhuang Tuo from mixing into the group. Please do not recommend stocks for commercial purposes, and do not take stocks recommended by others lightly. Stock speculation must be assertive, do not believe anyone's opinions, including the group owner's discussion of stocks, are for reference only, not as an investment basis. Also, don't expose your position textures at will.

The weekend analysis written today is entitled "Next week's goal is to hit 3700 points to double the stock index", and the general direction of the future and important shock area points are analyzed.

It's going to open tomorrow, and I wish you all the best of luck to keep making a lot of money. (To be continued.) If you like this work, you are welcome to come to the starting point () to vote for recommendation, monthly pass, your support, is my biggest motivation. For mobile phone users, please go to M. to read. (To be continued......)