Chapter 341: A Gift from the Pyramids
"It turns out that after talking for a long time, the golden ratio stock speculation method is such an unreliable thing, which makes me excited in vain." Hearing Ding Xu say this, Tao Yaoyao said with great disappointment.
"It's not that it's unreliable, it's still more correct in many cases." The Zen master was obviously a technocratic who had learned the golden ratio, and hastened to justify the golden ratio, "In fact, it was a mysterious gift from the Egyptian pyramids, and although it could not be explained, it could indeed be used to explain many things, including stocks." ”
"From the pyramids?" Tao Yaoyao suddenly became interested, "What do you say?" ”
"The golden ratio is the most perfect ratio in the universe, and it was first discovered by people looking at the pyramids of ancient Egypt. The Great Pyramids of Ancient Egypt are known for their ingenious aesthetic significance, which is made even more mysterious by a set of fantastic figures. The height of the pyramid is about 146 meters, the bottom of its square is about 230 meters long on each side, and their ratio is 146:230≈5:8, so it produces a beautiful and stable effect. The harmony of nature is in this proportion. The sum of 5 and 8 is 13, so 5:8 can be written as 5/13, that is, 0.384:0.615, and the ratio of the two numbers 0.382:0.618 can be obtained after continuous correction. The ratio of these two numbers is called the golden ratio. ”
"The golden section is an ancient mathematical method that has been applied to everything from Egyptian pyramids to gift boxes, and often works magically in ways we don't expect. There is still no convincing scientific explanation for the mysterious use of this mysterious number. But in the stock market, since the birth of the stock market. The golden ratio has a new place in this wonderful world of various combinations of numbers. The magic of the golden section spans almost the entire field of technical analysis. It is the set of numbers that traders and market analysts are most accustomed to quoting. According to the golden ratio, you can roughly calculate the limit point of a certain wave of rebound or retracement. Therefore. As long as you accurately calculate the golden section level of each wave rising or falling in advance, such as 0.382, 0.618, etc., you can choose a better price to buy and sell. ”
"But what Ding Xu just said, the dealer is easy to deceive the line. Whether it's 0.382 or 0.618, it's not necessarily accurate. And what he said is too evil, if it is really so accurate, then everyone can make up a software formula, and when you get to this position, you can buy and sell, and you can make money lying down. How is this possible? Uncle Blame interjected.
"A miracle is one thing that you don't know, and you don't know the other. In fact, the golden ratio is not only 0.382 and 0.618, but a set of more rigorous mathematical classifications. The most basic method used in the golden ratio is to divide 1 into 0.618 and 0.382, and derive a set of values related to the golden ratio, namely: 0, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 1. The parallel lines formed by passing through these five values are called the golden section line. These parallel lines are called the 0, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 1 bits of the golden section, respectively. These five lines are the five lines formed by clicking the golden section shortcut and dragging the mouse in the stock trading software. These lines are the support and pressure levels that stock critics and technologists pay more attention to. ”
The Zen master said, "Here." Let's not talk about whether the golden ratio has such a magical dividing effect. But the market is made up of people's psychological fluctuations, since there are many technologists who use this golden section. There is also a function of the golden section line in the stock trading software, so whether it is a stock or the market, once it rises to the relevant division position, there must be many people who are worried about the resistance position and throw it. And once it falls to the relevant segmentation position, there will inevitably be many people who agree with the supporting role here and will come to buy the bottom. Therefore, you can doubt the inevitability and accuracy of the golden section, but the technical significance and psychological resonance effect here are something we cannot ignore. ”
"Well, that's something I'm ignoring. As I said before, I like to use the ordinary moving average that most investors are used to, because this is the average used by most investors and institutions, and the resonance here is more meaningful. For example, if it falls below the 20-day moving average, many investors will stop their losses and leave the market, so this is more important than the special moving average used by some technical people. Ding Xu nodded and said, "Then Zen master, tell me about your understanding of the golden section method." ”
"Hehe, that's my understanding......" said the Zen master.
According to the Zen master, he generally uses the golden section line to predict the magnitude of the trend and as an aid to technical judgment.
Of course, the Zen master does not mechanically use the golden section line to buy and sell stocks, he has three premises:
First, on the issue of how to determine the starting point of the stock price, the 0 line of the golden section line is used. It is usually an important peak or bottom in the recent trend of the stock price. For example, when the stock price rises, it is based on the zero stock price at the bottom, and when its rise and fall reaches a certain important gold ratio, a reversal may occur.
The second is how to determine the second golden section point in the known stock market trend, that is, to determine the 0.382 position of the golden section line. Generally, the stock price turning point close to the zero point is used as the 0.382 line of the golden section line.
The third is how to use the golden ratio point to grasp the trend of the stock market and buy and sell stocks. If we know where the 0 and 0.382 split points are in the stock price, do we run away when we reach 0.5 points? Not necessarily. This should be determined in combination with the specific situation of the overall market and the quality of individual stocks, and the specific problems should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. For example, if the turnover rate is too large, the chip bar (CYQ) moves up quickly, the increase is too large, or the fundamentals are heavy and bearish, you should consider leaving the market.
On these three premises, let's consider the application of the golden section line:
First, 0.382 and 0.618 are important turning points that reflect changes in the stock market. When the stock price rally approaches or reaches 38.2% and 61.8%, a reversal is likely to occur. Conversely, when the stock price decline is close or 38.2% and 61.8%, there is a high probability of a rebound.
Second, when the stock price rises, the price of the rising space can be calculated according to the gold rate. The general figures for the upside ability and reversal of the stock price are 0.191, 0.382, 0.618, 0.809 and 1. When the stock price rises by more than 1 times. The reversal points are 1.91, 1.382, 1.618, 1.809 and 2. And so on.
For example, after the end of a stock market decline. The lowest price of the stock price is 5.8 yuan, then, when the stock price rises, shareholders can predict the possible price of the stock price after rising. That is: 5.8× (1+19.1%)=6.91 yuan; 5.8× (1+38.2%)=8.02 yuan; 5.8× (1+61.8%)=9.38 yuan; 5.8× (1+80.9%)=10.49 yuan; 5.8× (1+100%)=11.6 yuan;
Conversely, when the uptrend ends and the downtrend begins, the above figures can still be expected at different levels of the rally.
For example, when the highest price is 21 yuan, that is: 21× (1-19.1%) = 16.99 yuan; 21× (1-38.2%)=12.98 yuan; 21× (1-61.8%) = 8.02 yuan; 21× (1-80.9%)=4.01 yuan;
And the basic rules of buying and selling the golden section. Mainly with the 0.618 method, which is the law from nature, applied to stock trading has a strong reference significance, it is divided into 1.191, 1.382, 1.500, 1.618, 1.809, etc., each line is the resistance level, generally as long as there is a market, each stock will break through the 1.191 line 1.382 line, some stocks on the 1.618 line a few on the 1.809 line, very few stocks break through the 1.809 line and higher. The apex of the stage (1.000) is divided into gold lines: 0.809, 0.618, 0.500, 0.382, 0.191, each line is a strong support level, a strong stock. Stocks mostly stopped falling and rebounded at the 0.809 line. Weak stocks to the 0.618 line or 0.382 line, etc., speculated according to the gold line. Relatively safe. Falling from the high below the 0.618 line should not be used as a starting point for the gold line. There is no stock low that is higher than the bottom, and it should not be used as the starting point of the gold line.
According to this, the Zen master has a five-stage buying and selling rule of the golden line:
The first is to hold patiently and wait for a breakthrough: that is, it is safest to buy shares within the 1.191 line, and it is the consolidation period of the stock, and there will always be a breakthrough day. At the first gold line, it is the consolidation period of the stock. Once the stock price breaks through the 1.191 line, it will definitely touch the 1.382 line, and you can consider throwing it off at this time, because there is a high probability that it will fall, and you can choose to throw it off when it first rushes higher. The pullback will generally reach the 1.191 line, and then buy it back.
The second is to sell high and suck low, to obtain gold: that is, between the two lines of 1.191-1.382, you can do the difference, sell high and suck low, don't be afraid, this area will generally not set people, because the banker's profit is not very large, and on the way up, the banker himself will also sell high and suck low to reduce their holding costs, and make more price differences for stocks they are familiar with, and they must dare to make a difference. The 1.382 line is a strong resistance level, and the strong resistance level has a long period of consolidation, and once it is effectively broken, it is difficult for the stock price to fall below the 1.382 line, and it is best to throw it off at the 1.191 price + (1.382 price - 1.191 price) * 0.618 level.
The third is the tiger's mouth tooth extraction, need to be cautious: that is, at 1.382-1.618 can also make a difference, but because the increase is close to half, here has begun to be the tiger's mouth tooth extraction, should be more careful, it is best to throw it at the price of 1.382 + (1.618 price - 1.382 price) * 0.618, the stock that fell from the high position should not be at 0.809 to grab the rebound, but at 0.618, but the rise of 10% must be thrown away, do not fall in love.
Fourth, it is high and high, and it is necessary to be more cautious in buying: the stock at 0.618 means that it has risen 62% from the low, and if it is in a bear market, the dealer can already ship, at least it can be sold high and sucked low, making a phased top. So in a bear market, try not to buy stocks near the 1.618 line. The longer the consolidation near the line, the greater the probability of the bookmaker's shipment, and the conditions in the bull market can naturally be relaxed, but also be careful about the time cost and consumption of consolidation.
Fifth, the infinite scenery is at the peak of danger: the stock on 1.809 may be infinite scenery, and there is a chance for the rate to rise, such as: the 1.809 price of 0680 is 7.98 yuan, and there is a chance to near 16.00 yuan after the breakthrough.
…………………………… Dividing line ..............................
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Today, our book once again won the first place in the 24-hour hot list, thank you for your great support.
The weekend analysis written yesterday, entitled "Next week's goal is to hit 3700 points to double the stock index", the disk analysis mentioned that under the influence of factors such as the upcoming Boao Forum and the upcoming introduction of the "Belt and Road" plan, the Belt and Road sector should have a better table, and there are more blue chips, which are expected to lead the market to rush through.
Today, the concept of the Belt and Road Initiative is really hot, and the blue chips are also collectively exerting force, and the Shanghai Composite Index has hit 3688 points at the highest level, and once again closed out of a gap high in the yang line, only one step away from 3700 points. Today is March 23, this gap has not been filled, if you add the gap on February 13 and March 17, it is the third gap since February, is it in line with the book said that the jump three in a row is exhausted? Please note that the hyphenation of three gaps in a row refers to three gaps in a short period of time, and the one in February is not counted, of course, if there is another gap in the near future, and it will be filled soon in the next few trading days, you must be careful of a strong adjustment. At present, the market is still only diving and adjusting in the intraday, and the trend is still very strong. Although the 30-minute divergence has been tightened, there has not been a divergence on the daily timeframe, including the quantitative energy and MACD indicators. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is also the same as last December, has been maintained at the trillion turnover, as long as the funds continue to enter, the market will still continue to rise, short and short, divergence and divergence, even if the adjustment is mainly short-term adjustment, there is no need to be afraid of heights at present.
After drawing a picture today, the Shanghai Index has come out of a non-standard old duck head pattern, and is opening its mouth and quacking.
In the quacking of ducks, individual stocks are rising and falling, such as penny stocks below four yuan are being quickly eliminated. The ultimate goal of the bull market is to eliminate penny stocks below ten yuan, so as to raise the overall space, and then the high-priced stocks to expand the upward space, 100 yuan stocks will increase, and mid-priced stocks will follow up, filling the gap after the rise of high-priced stocks, and low-priced stocks will keep up. Therefore, no matter what stock you have in your hand, as long as it is a safety stock, you should be patient and wait for the rotation to let the profits run. (To be continued......)