"That's true, but when a bear market comes, there is often no warning, just like 6124 points, and it suddenly peaks, how can this be judged?" Bao Erdan asked.

"How could there be no warning? For example, if you look at the chip distribution bar of the Shanghai Composite Index, the bottom chips have moved up to the top, and some heavyweights known as elephants are dancing wildly to cover the retreat of other sectors. For example, the official media pointed out that the stock market bubble is huge, and it continues to issue large-cap new shares. For example, the real economy has become better and attracted more capital into the real economy. Ban Pan replied, "Another example is the technical breakdown, especially the breakdown of the weekly and monthly charts." If it falls below the middle band of the weekly Bollinger band, and then falls below the middle band again, there is a high probability that a bear market is coming. In addition, it is necessary to pay close attention to whether the weekly pivot is broken, once it is broken, it is very likely that the bear market is coming, regardless of profit or loss, you should immediately clear your position and leave the market, in order to avoid the risk of continuous sharp declines at the beginning of the bear market. You must know that the bull market in 2007 was the four pivotal bulls and bears. ”

"Which four centers?" Bao Erdan asked.

"I mean the weekly center, that is, the center of the Zen in the winding, in the process of the bull market rise, once there is a weekly level adjustment, and it is adjusted according to the pattern of 'down up and down', and at the same time, in the process of going up and down, there is a completely overlapping range, which is the center. For example, after rising from 1000 points to 2000 points, falling to 1700 points, then rising to 1950 points, then falling to 1650 points, and finally rising to points, then 1700-1950 points is the weekly center. Opening the weekly candlestick chart of the Shanghai Composite Index since the bull market in 2005, there are four obvious weekly pivots. ”

Ban Ban sent a weekly pivot chart up, and then explained. "One of the signs to judge whether a bull market has turned bearish. It is after the weekly center is broken. It cannot be broken. For example, in the four weekly pivots since 2005, the first three pivots are basically the same, that is, after the first wave of decline, the second wave of rebound has basically returned to near the high. The third wave fell, not too far from the lows of the first wave, and then the construction of the weekly pivot was completed, and it began to move upwards and start a new wave of the main rising wave. Other words. After the weekly pivot is made, the stock index moves upwards away from this pivot. Only the fourth pivot is an exception, because after rising to 6124 points, there is a downward and upward pivot, but the last black candle falls below this pivot and is getting farther and farther away. Finally, in a wave of rebound in early 2008, the bottom of the box hit this pivot and went down again, so there was a great bear market in 2008. ”

"Well, it does make sense. But is this judgment really accurate? Ding Xu nodded. Follow-up.

"A perimeter center is the position where the main force carries out aerial refueling. After that, it's normal to go up again. If it falls below, it means that the main force has abandoned the position that it has worked so hard to build, and the bulls have collapsed and are rushing to flee for their lives, triggering more killings, and it is not surprising that the bear market is coming. Of course, the technical indicators can also be viewed with indicators such as chip distribution, for example, when the last weekly center is built, the bottom chips are basically transferred to the top, indicating that the main force has begun to ship. In addition, in 2007, the bull market has not fallen below the weekly middle of the Bollinger Bands, and then peaked and then fell below, and when it rebounded to this position again, it could not be scaled up, and fell below the weekly middle of the Bollinger Bands again, which is the last chance to escape. ”

"Of course, there are many signs that can be used to judge the bull market top, such as whether the amount of funds can keep up and whether the policy will turn." In the bull market of 2007, due to the country's fear of too big a bubble, it continued to issue large-cap stocks and stopped approving new public funds. Funds and stock prices are the relationship between water and fish, the water is cut off, large-cap stocks continue to be listed, naturally the fish is not easy to raise, and the prescient funds quickly retreated, triggering the trend and killing more, and the bear market is coming. In addition, the big bull market is generally a group effect, which will eliminate the absolute value depression such as penny stocks and low price-earnings stocks, and when the market value depression basically does not exist, the average price-earnings ratio is high, and the asset securitization rate is also high, it will peak. In the end, the bull market generally perishes in an atmosphere of madness and joy, and if it is still as bearish as it is now, full of arguments and doubts, then it will generally not peak. What's more, the increase in the market is also to be considered, it rose more than five times in 2007, and the big money is profitable, and there is enough room to ship. And now the increase is still very small, but only 20%, and there is no need to consider the peak. Unless this is not a small bull market, but just a small rally, it will suddenly stop. ”

"Listening to your words is better than reading a book for ten years. Teachable! After hearing this, Ding Xu said with emotion, "Brother Ban, I understand, before you want to do the long-term, you must judge that this is a wave of bull market coming, and have a rough prediction of the apex of the bull market, and then insist that the long-term is gold." It's just that I'm curious to know what your long-term pattern looks like, can you elaborate on that? ”

"That's a long story. In this way, I have a chat record of my group when I escaped from the top in September 2007, and I will post it directly for your reference. Banban smiled and said, "I played basketball yesterday, and I dropped my hand, and it is not very convenient to type, please allow me to be lazy." ”

"Thank you very much." Ding Xu hurriedly said.

After more than ten minutes, Banban posted a large amount of chat history, which basically only kept Banban's own words, and the words of other group friends were deleted.

This monologue-style chat record made Ding Xu very emotional and inspired.

The date is 25 September 2007 and reads as follows -

"Banban: Yesterday, I was on Sun Securities. The overseas sales department listened to a class called the 2007 Interim Strategy Report, and the teacher who gave the lecture saw more than 10,000 points and thought that there would be a golden ten-year bull market, but I didn't think so, I thought he was too optimistic. And when everyone is so optimistic, the real big risk often comes, after all, the bull market always ends in joy, the stamp duty hike in the first few months has fully explained the official attitude, and now it has risen by more than a thousand points, and the possibility of a crash is getting bigger and bigger.

Of course, that's not the point I'm going to talk about today. In the course of the lecture, the lecturer asked us how much we have been able to achieve more than two-fold returns since the bull market in 2005. Finally, after a cold moment, I raised my hand, another middle-aged man raised his hand, and the others were basically ashamed and remorseful.

Of the hundreds of retail investors, only two have more than tripled. Of course, some people may be reluctant to raise their hands, but from the interactions that followed, I can see that most retail investors do not have the anxiety of outperforming the market, that is real anxiety. After all, the market has risen more than four times from 998 points, and these people have significantly underperformed the market, and even many retail investors are losing money, they are all in a hurry, and I sigh and feel sorry for them. Because I can foresee that when the bull market is over, they will definitely be reluctant to leave the market, and they will stay in the stock market to eat, and finally suffer losses.

I just looked at the discussion, and many people don't believe what I said.

So on this picture, the statistics of a brokerage system jù, do you believe it?

Since 2005, 52% of the brokerage's customers have a return of less than 75%, which has not even doubled!

The market has risen more than four times, even if you close your eyes and pick a random stock to cover, there is more than that!

Brokerage analysts believe that the main reason is that retail investors like to chase up and down, and they are unwilling to cover stocks for the medium and long term. And there were several shocks, such as the 530 tragedy, when it fell by 40%, it cut the meat, and when it rose by 10%, it went up to chase high, and it killed 50% of the profit at one time. This kind of thing is repeated twice, that is, 100% of the profit is wiped out. If a retail investor earns an average of twice as much a year, but loses a lot of profits when encountering this kind of big shock and reshuffle, and the last statistic shows that there is only a return of less than 75% in two years, it is not incomprehensible

Let's not compare the average rate of return of our group with the retail investors outside.

If you can operate according to my stock trading theory and stick to the long-term is gold, you can easily beat most retail investors. There is nothing else, just two words, dead cover. There are four more words, the long line is golden!

……………… Dividing line ........................

(Congratulations to the miracle group's "8 o'clock online" and "Leng Yu", "Niu Run Da Free" and "Xixi" for becoming lovers, cheering to make money, buying a house, buying a car and getting a license to have a baby.) I wish "8 Leng" and "Rhinoceros" great profits, good luck, and white heads.

I went back to my hometown during the Dragon Boat Festival, and I didn't have a code word in those days, forgive me. Today I updated a few chapters in one go, and made up for the interruptions of the previous two days.

These chapters are intended to write about my understanding of some of the characteristics of the top and bottom of the bull market, for your reference only.

Regarding the correction during the bull market upswing, I just want to say that there will be a rainbow after the storm, do not fall into the darkness before dawn. (To be continued......) R1292