"Brother Ban, your long-term pattern is similar to me, can you talk about it specifically and give everyone a little inspiration?" Ding Xu was immediately interested, and hurriedly asked.

"That's a long story. My personal method, first of all, is to combine the fundamentals and technical aspects to determine that this is a bull market, and have a basic judgment and prediction on the top and bottom of the market, before I dare to go in and buy the bottom, and then do it for the long term. In our country, the bull is usually short and the bear is long, and the bull market generally does not exceed three years. For example, in 1999, it rose from 1047 points to 2245 points in 2001, and then it was bearish for four or five years, and fell to 998 points in 2005. ”

Banban smiled, "Generally speaking, in a few years of bear market, it has fallen by more than half, and then it can't fall again." Foresighted funds come in to buy the bottom, which means that the bottom of the bear market is basically out. After that, the top management launched the reform of equity division, which is a real big event and solves a fundamental problem that affects the development of the stock market, so I judge that the market is going to come to a bull market, and it can at least double, from 998 points to 2,000 points. And the top of the last bull market was 2245 points, and the top of this bull market should be more than 20% higher than that high, that is, it can rise to more than 2700 points. In addition, China's economic development has been rapid in the past 10 years or so, and the total volume and quality of the economy will rise to a new level during each leader's tenure. The stock market is a barometer of the economy, so China's stock market is actually going through a super bull market, the lows are constantly rising, the highs are constantly refreshing, and the highs of each bull market are much higher than the highs of the previous bull market. ”

"How?" Ding Xu asked with great interest.

"For example, in 1990, the lowest point of the stock market was only 95 points. After that, in the 1993 bull market, it rose to 1558 points, an increase of 15 times. The subsequent bull market more than doubled from 1,047 points in 1999 to 2,245 points in 2001, and the high point was also 44% higher than the previous wave of 1,558 points. And after that. It is the big bull market during the tenure of this leader. ”

Ban Ban smiled, "So I thought at the time, the high point of the first two bull markets was from 1558 points to 2245 points, and this wave of bull market in 2007 should reach more than 3,000 points, that is, the market can triple from 998 points." It's a bull market, so I'm going long with peace of mind. Later, as the market rose, I found that the indicators of the weekly and monthly lines were very strong, including the Bollinger Bands of the monthly line, which was a phenomenon that had never been seen before. In addition, the official media is also blowing warm winds frequently, and the concept of share reform has become a leader, with many shares increasing more than ten times or more. So I raised my expectations, saw more than 4,000 points, and later even saw more than 5,000 points, and finally felt that I couldn't understand it at 5509 points, so I cleared the position. As you know, the high point of this bull market is 6124 points. That's 1.72 times higher than 2245 points! It's more than 10% higher than the point where I left the game, and I'm still a little bit early. But as I said. I ate the fattest fish and left the last 10% of the fish tail market to someone else. Looking back, I don't regret it at all. ”

"To be able to leave at 5,500 points is already very good. How many points do you see in this round of market? Ding Xu asked admiringly.

"As I said earlier, China is short bulls and long bears. The bull market of 2007 has just ended for more than a year, and there will not be a bull market right away. So it's more likely to be a small bull market, like it was in 1996. The goal is to double or so, that is, from 1664 points, which is about 3300 points. It won't be too long, a year at most. Ban Pan replied.

"Well, it's close to what I expected. But will it also evolve from a small bull market to a big bull market like in 2005? Ding Xu asked.

"Probably not. There will be at least four or five years between the two big bull markets. Because large funds need to have enough time to suppress the index and stock price, which usually takes one or two years, and then it will take a year or two to build positions, eat food, and wash the market, which is also in line with the law of bulls and bears. In addition, the global economic crisis is still fermenting, and the four trillion policy is only a countermeasure, which is not enough to trigger a bull market like the share reform measures in 2005, which is destined to be only a small bull market. He replied categorically.

"It's a shame that I'm counting on a big bull market that will allow me to achieve financial freedom." Ding Xu sighed regretfully.

"Stock god, can you predict when the next ** bull market will come, and the top and bottom? My money is too small now, and I will be able to save more money in a few years, and I hope to multiply it tenfold or eightfold by that time and achieve financial freedom. Hearing this, Sweet Orange asked with great interest.

"I'm just an ordinary small retail investor who dares to die and has a bit of luck, where is what kind of dog-ass god? Please don't use that word to humiliate me, okay? Besides, the top and bottom of the bull market are all coming out, and prediction is just a kind of entertainment. Banban smiled helplessly.

"Okay, then I'll call you Brother Ban too, please tell me about your dreams, let's refer to it." Sweet Orange immediately changed her tune.

"Well, since everyone is willing to listen to my dreams, I'll say a few words. As for the next bull market, I've also thought about it. If this wave of small bull market peaked in 2009 and the point was around 3300 points, then it would take about four years to refer to the time of the last bear market, that is, it bottomed out around 2013. The big bear market will generally fall by more than 50%, so the low point may also be around 1664 points. However, due to the rapid growth of the country's economy and the rising lows of the bear market, it is necessary to increase it by at least 10%, which is 1664 points multiplied by 1.1, which is about 1830 points. ”

"Well, four years later, it was 2013, the low point was around 1830 points, I remembered, and then I could go and copy the big bottom." Sweet Orange was very happy to listen to it, but it was basically a joke, and after thinking about it, he asked again, "What will be the high point?" Will it double from 6,124 points and break through the 10,000-point mark? ”

"It's hard to say, the height of the bull market has a lot to do with the country's economy, leaders, and the attitude of regulators. There are a lot of variables. The first three waves of the big bull market, the first time was when the stock market was just formed, and the state wanted to implement the stock market, and the result suddenly rose more than ten times, from 95 points to 1,558 points. After the change of leaders. Regulators began to emphasize risk, using measures such as price limits to control the stock market to soar and plummet, and the bull market was relatively mild, up only 44% from the top of the first bull market, to 2,245 points. After this generation of leaders came to power. In order to solve the problems left over from history, the regulator launched the reform of equity division and drastically reformed the stock market, which rose to 6,124 points this time, 1.7 times higher than the top of the second bull market. ”

Banban frowned. "As for a few years from now...... Now this round of global economic crisis does not know how long it will take to end, and with the shrinking of the demographic dividend, China's manufacturing will face a dilemma in the next few years, and the real estate-led economic model is also difficult to control, and it must be transformed and upgraded, from extensive to innovative, in order to really break through. And now the theory of the China threat is gradually rising, and China is beginning to be constrained by the United States and other countries. There are many difficulties to face. If, in a few years, the next leader is bold enough to lead China's economy out of its predicament. With a successful breakthrough, China will usher in a great transformation and become a real economic power and financial power, and will have more say on the world stage and achieve real rejuvenation! And the stock market. It will also reflect this historic change, even if it rises to 10,000 points. It's not impossible! But ......"

The crowd listened with enthusiasm, but heard the last word. Suddenly, my heart hung again.

"Brother Ban, you said it so well, but why do you say the word 'but', what a disappointment!" Bao Erdan wiped away the saliva that accidentally flowed out, and muttered dissatisfiedly.

"I know I've swept away your interest, but the ideal is the ideal, and we still have to be sober. You know, I'm a very cautious person, and I never dare to have too high expectations for the stock market. You must know that the recent high-level management is planning to launch margin trading and stock index futures business, which will form a short-selling force, and if the stock market wants to soar in the future, it is necessary to consider the short-selling problem. And if you want to become a financial power, you must increase direct financing, that is, IPO efforts, and supercarriers like PetroChina will be listed one after another in the future, forming a blood-pumping effect, which will correspondingly restrict the height of the bull market. ”

Ban Ban smiled, "I only dare to say that the top of the next ** bull market will be higher than the high point of the previous big bull market, that is to say, 6124 points will be broken, and this probability should be above 90%!" Because the economic power at that time was no longer comparable to that of 2007, the stock market will also reflect this objective fact. And the top of the bull market in history has always been a rising tide, so I think the peak of the next bull market will increase by at least 20% on the basis of 6124 points, 6124 points multiplied by 1.2 equals 7348 points. This probability should be above 80%. ”

"Why 20 percent, not 30 percent or more?" Bao Erdan asked, "If 6124 times 1.3, it is 7961 points." ”

"Yes, 7961 points is also possible, but the more it rises, the less likely it is. Personally, I think the probability of 7961 points is only about 70%. As for multiplying by 1.4, 1.5, etc., the probability is even lower. For example, more than 10,000 points is theoretically possible, but the probability is even smaller, and it can only be said that it cannot be ruled out. Banban smiled, "You know, in 2007, there was a 10,000-point theory and a golden ten-year bull market theory, but what was the result?" Stock speculation is actually speculation on probability, and there is no absolute thing. To be on the safe side, I generally only do stocks with a probability of more than 80%, and the same is true for the broader market. If I still do stocks in a few years, I may look at the specific situation and choose to start gradually reducing or even liquidating positions around 7348 points to lock in profits. Eat the body of the fish and leave the tail for someone else. Then I continued to travel for a year and waited for the bear market to come. ”

"Prudence is a virtue." Hearing this, Ding Xu, who had not been silent, said with a smile, "But if it really rises to 10,000 points, you will still have a large part of the fish body left uneaten, don't you regret it?" ”

"There's definitely a little bit of regret, but there's not much to regret. Accurate escape belongs to the god of stocks, I am not a god of stocks, just a small retail investor, as long as I make enough money to go, in the long run is always right, as long as the bear market does not go to the bottom at the beginning of the bottom, keep the profits, it doesn't matter, it is much better than losing profits or even the principal in the bear market, contentment and happiness, only learn to be content, in order to be happy. "For example, if this year's small bull market comes out, I will gradually leave the market after the goal of 3300 points is achieved." After that, even if it rises to 3400 or 3600, it's none of my business, my goal has been achieved, and I have no regrets. It's still the same sentence, contentment and happiness. ”

Hearing this, everyone fell into deep thought. (To be continued)

ps: I recommend the new book "My Soviet Union" by my old friend "Qingshan White Pine", who wrote a book together a few years ago, with the ISBN of 3478000, everyone help collect it, and give some recommendation votes, thank you.