As we all know, the 1997 Asian financial crisis had a drastic negative impact on Asian countries, but China seems to have begun to recover in early 1998 after an initial period of testing, with the country's GDP growing by more than 7.5% for two consecutive years. For this reason, many foreign media once questioned China's data fraud, because from the data, the country's export and import quotas could not support such a high rate of GDP growth, but China's surging development momentum in 1998, 1999, and 2000 is an indisputable fact.

Today, Wu Yongwen, a well-known professor at Tianjing University, was invited by the relevant departments to come to a conference hall to give a lecture or two to some special audiences, and to answer this question with his solid and detailed research.

"A foreign scholar recently released an investigation report, and now it is hyped in the foreign media, it is said that there is sufficient evidence to prove that our country's GDP is injected with water, I wonder if everyone here feels that they have been wronged?"

Although the audience did not laugh, they all laughed heartily, because they were all powerful figures at the central or local level, and even the No. 1 chief was impressively listed.

Organizing regular learning has become the consensus of the country's high-level leaders, because the times are developing rapidly, and they also need to keep pace with the times to learn and listen to the voice of the country's think tanks.

"According to the experience of Western countries, energy consumption is the best thermometer to reflect the economic barometer, especially the electricity index, which is the most intuitive, which has some truth. According to our own published data, the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption was 0.36 in 1998 and 0.49 in 1999, both well below the 0.55 in 1997. Therefore. Foreign scholars slapped us in the face with our own data, saying that our country's economic growth does not conform to the major laws of economic development. It is the product of water injection, and it is absolutely impossible to have a GDP growth rate of 7.5%. Actually, I won't tell you anything. When I heard this argument, it made sense, but when I thought about it, it was wrong. Because our country is constantly evolving, I take a certain amount of time to go to various places every year to conduct research, and use my eyes and feet to prove the reasonableness of the data released by the state. So, who is wrong, so I set out to find out the puzzle and find this monster hidden under the data. ”

Professor Wu Yongwen watched the reactions of the audience and continued.

"I don't buy it anymore. This hidden monster was actually unleashed by us unintentionally. Since imports and exports do not meet the requirements required for growth, the three carriages we often talk about are left with only domestic demand, and this monster is a powerful driver of domestic demand -- that is, the real estate market. Why did the real estate market exist before, but it has suddenly had such an effect in the last two or three years? As some of you already know, it is because of the housing reform system introduced in 1998 that the state units, factories, etc., transfer residential property rights to individuals at very low prices, so that the whole society can release the wealth accumulated for decades at once, and as a result, the whole society is just a few years. Real wealth is exploding. ”

took a sip of water, although all the leaders sat below, Wu Yongwen did not have stage fright and continued to talk eloquently.

"Theoretical stuff is always too abstract. When I give lectures at university, students like to ask me to give me examples, but today I will give you an example of why your wealth has suddenly skyrocketed.

For example, Zhang San got a two-bedroom and 60-square-meter house for 10,000 yuan in the unit housing reform. In terms of transaction price, this house is worth 10,000 yuan. But because of the scarcity of resources, things that are economically scarce can be sold for money. And the house is in our national society, I believe that all the leaders here know it in practice. Housing in our country is actually an extremely scarce resource. Not to mention anything else, our Tianjing University is usually calm, but once it is time to divide the house, it is simply turbulent, and the eight immortals cross the sea to show their magical powers. Scholars have always cared most about face, but for the sake of the house, face is nothing, Sven sweeps the floor! ”

Speaking of this, someone in the audience finally burst out laughing, and Professor Wu's self-deprecating humor on the podium made them unable to sit upright anymore.

"Since a house is scarce, but to reflect its true value, it needs to be circulated and proven in the market how much it is really worth. Zhang San spent 10,000 yuan to get the house, and Li Si was urged to get married by his mother-in-law, and when he heard that Zhang San wanted to change to a big house and intended to change this suite, he was willing to buy it for 50,000 yuan. At this time, Liu Wu also knew the news of the sale of the house, and he also decided to pay 70,000 yuan because he was going to get married. In the continuous price increase, Li Si finally won with 120,000 yuan and got the house. It is the transactions of Zhang San, Li Si and Liu Wu that constitute the entire real estate circulation market. After the verification of the market, Zhang San's house that only cost 10,000 yuan for housing reform, the actual price is 120,000 yuan, of which 110,000 yuan is the explosive wealth released by housing reform. The increase in social wealth is not an increase in production, but the release of dividends caused by institutional changes, and it can also be said that the state compensates workers for the wages owed for decades, and returns them to everyone in kind overnight. Therefore, this wealth is not the creation of employment and energy consumption, but the dividends that have been accumulated and hidden are now made public. According to my preliminary verification data, the dividends released by this part of the housing reform reached 300 billion yuan in 1998 alone, which is enough to withstand the growth of GDP of 7.5%. ”

Many of the people below looked suddenly enlightened, apparently hearing such an answer for the first time.

"Hidden wealth is always limited, so why did it continue to grow in 1999? Let's go back to the previous example, isn't Zhang San going to change to a bigger house? 60 square meters of two bedrooms and one living room is not enough to live, and there are elderly and children at home, at least three bedrooms and one living room to solve the problem. There is a demand, and where there is a demand, there will be a market.

It just so happened that in 1998, the state also announced the policy of personal housing consumption loans, and at the same time, the abolition of welfare housing increased the rigid demand by relying on the power of the state, creating an unprecedented huge consumer market. At this time, many discerning real estate developers entered the market in 1998 and began to build a large number of houses that were in demand.

In the end, Zhang San sold the house to get 120,000 yuan, and then through a 20-year personal housing loan of 50,000 yuan, he bought a three-bedroom and one-hall house newly built by a real estate developer to move in. Fulfilled the dream of life. Some people may have noticed that Zhang San applied for a loan of 50,000 yuan and paid it off within 20 years. That is to say, Zhang San advanced part of his wealth for the next 20 years to be consumed in 1999. According to the data I got from the relevant departments, the amount of personal housing loans in 1999 was 135.75 billion yuan. That's a lot of money. ”

Originally, I thought that I would study the theory according to the script, but now I found that Professor Wu on the stage spoke really in-depth and innovative, so many leaders really began to listen to the lectures and learn mode.

"In 1998, the amount of real estate investment was 361.4 billion yuan, and in 1999 it reached 472.9 billion yuan, an increase of 30.8%. This year, I have only counted the first six months, and the investment amount has exceeded the 500 billion mark, and the increase is expected to reach more than 50%. With the development of the real estate market, the price of first-hand houses continues to increase, and the prices of second-hand houses are also rising in the wave of marketization of first-hand houses. Back to the example. The house sold by Zhang San for 120,000 yuan has risen to 150,000 yuan in less than a year, of which the increase of 30,000 yuan is also counted in the explosion of social wealth. I believe that all of you here, if you have a house in Tianjing, you can go to the intermediary market and ask if your house is more valuable than last year, and the momentum will continue to rise. Therefore, it is true that the GDP growth of our country has nothing to do with imports, exports and employment. But it is also objective. The above examples and data are my answer to why foreign scholars' doubts are wrong, and our national data is supported by reality. I have already written to the questioning foreign scholar through a friend, inviting him to come to our country when he is free, and I will take him for a walk myself. Tell him what's wrong! ”

"Bang Bang-"

Wu Yongwen's words were warmly applauded by everyone present.

"I'm going to talk about another problem, which is what I found in Jiangzhou City, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province."

Hudong Mayor Li Zhiguo also sat in the audience. Hearing this news, I couldn't help but stop the pen in my hand and look at the direction of the main leaders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province.

"The last two or three years. Jiangzhou City is at the forefront of the country in terms of state-owned land transfer, especially the term "operating city" has caused a lot of heated discussions in China. I go to Jiangzhou every year for research. With a small change every year and a big change in three years, the urban appearance of Jiangzhou has changed greatly, which is closely related to the local land transfer bidding and auction system. Combined with the great changes in the real estate market, the land auction has revitalized the wealth of the city that has been precipitated for many years, so that the financial revenue of the Jiangzhou municipal government has gone from making ends meet to becoming rich overnight. According to statistics, the annual income of the Jiangzhou Municipal Government has reached 35 billion yuan by relying on land bidding, reversing the embarrassing situation of long-term arrears in urban services and infrastructure construction exceeding the ends of the city, completing the transformation of major projects such as airports, railway stations and viaducts, and creating a new urban area. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the investment promotion project of Jiangzhou New Area is in full swing, and many top international enterprises have settled here, becoming the hottest investment hotspot in the entire Yangtze River Delta. Why choose Jiangzhou, what is the magic of Jiangzhou? ”

After asking a question, Wu Yongwen deliberately gave the audience time to think.

"At first, I was also puzzled, obviously looking at some places in southern Jiangsu Province that are more suitable for investment, because it is close to Hudong City, but after my field research and discussions with investors, I found that one of the key factors they care about the most is the preferential policies of local governments. After comparison, I found that the preferential policies provided by the Jiangzhou municipal government are indeed almost unmatched in the whole of China, and they do give away many benefits to attract foreign businessmen. Of course, this is not a betrayal of the country, but the maximum use of the rules in a reasonable game, and the Jiangzhou municipal government has not crossed the red line. The reason why the Jiangzhou municipal government is able to provide so many preferential treatment to investors is because the municipal government has sufficient financial resources. The source of sufficient financial resources lies in the land auction and obtaining a large amount of land transfer money. A large amount of land transfer money is built on the basis of stable and high housing prices.

Let me explain this in depth. Due to the tax system, there is no property tax in China, and local governments must first recoup infrastructure investment and long-term service commitments (70 years for ordinary housing) from one-time land revenues to provide quality public services. Then, through investment attraction, the one-time income is converted into long-term industrial and commercial tax revenues to obtain the capital flow required for long-term service commitments. In order to compete for high-quality enterprises with high taxes and high wages (personal income tax), cities compete with each other to offer preferential conditions. As a result, the global competitiveness of enterprises investing in China has increased greatly, and those enterprises that do not invest in China cannot compete with "Made in China" at all. Finally, the higher the house price, the higher the land price, the more land income, the stronger the local government's subsidy capacity, the stronger the competitiveness of the industry, and the more willing enterprises are to settle in cities that can increase large subsidies. Therefore, I can conclude that the real estate market is not just about real estate, but about all macroeconomic areas of investment, consumption and exports of the whole country! ”

As soon as this remark came out, many leaders present were surprised by this point of view, but looking back, what they said was indeed very reasonable, because Jiangzhou is a living example in front of them.

Housing prices are rising too fast, and there are many calls from citizens for government intervention, and some people are ready to take control. But now that they have heard this theory, the local rulers have to think carefully about whether to control the growth of housing prices.

Finally, there is a consensus on controlling the rapid growth of housing prices and keeping it in line with the magnitude of economic growth, because China's main national policy is to reform and open up and seek development for the whole world.

Develop first, then settle accounts, and control the hazards within acceptable limits.

This seemingly ordinary study meeting once again changed the course of China's development. The real estate industry is becoming a pillar industry of the country at this time, and governments at all levels have begun to escort real estate, because it is not only the real estate industry, but also related to the macroeconomy of the whole country.

Soon after, the state issued a document requiring that from July 1, 2001, all land auction policies should be implemented throughout the country. At the same time, major banks are required to steadily promote the business of personal consumption housing loans and establish a unified housing provident fund system. (To be continued......)