Chapter 100 The bull market is long-term, and the bear market is short-term
(Once at 11 o'clock in the evening, everyone said they couldn't watch it, try it again)
This night, "Noisy" talked for a long time in the miracle group, and told him in one breath about his failed experience of doing short-term and guiding huge losses every day.
The group members listened in silence, and they all felt that they had gained something from this story. In particular, the vivid metaphor of a bowl of water and a rope shocked everyone.
It wasn't until two or three minutes after the noise finished that everyone began to come back to their senses.
"The long-term is gold, the short-term is silver, that's right! Thank you for your selfless sharing. Jade Shadow exclaimed.
"The noisy experience is very representative, it seems that we still have to stick to the long-term, don't do the short-term, and there is no need to do T. I once missed a big bull stock because I did T, and I lost several times the profit at my fingertips, and the lesson is very deep! "The allies also put forward their own points.
"But I'm used to doing short-term trading, and if I don't move the stock for a few days, my hands will itch, what should I do?" Wind and rain said.
Listening to everyone's discussions, Ding Xu smiled and said, "First of all, thank you for sharing your experience, everyone copied his story into the document, it's okay to read more, it will help." Secondly, I can only say that I partially agree with the conclusion of the noise. Those two parables are what I said, and that's true, but it's not an absolute thing. In fact, there is another way to understand the phrase that the long term is gold and the short term is silver, that is, the long term is gold, and the short term is also gold! ”
"Miracle, what do you mean by that? How is the short-term also golden? I'm confused. Clumsy asked, confused.
The meaning of this sentence is that long-term and short-term should be used in different market environments. If you use it well, the long-term and short-term are golden! Specifically, the bull market is long-term, and the bear market is short-term! ”
Ding Xu explained, "For example, many people mistakenly believe that they must do long-term to make money, so they have been covering stocks, and as a result, the more they cover, the more they lose, and in the end, they lose all their money." This is so because they ignore the premise of a bull market and a bear market. ”
"Be specific!" Clumsy came interest.
"The long-term is gold, which refers to the operation idea in the bull market, and the short-term is silver, which is the speculative skill in the bear market. I have referred to the experience of many successful and unsuccessful people on the Internet, including my father's experience in stock trading, and finally came up with a rule, doing a long term in a bull market, doing a reversal of the big band, you can make a lot of money. Do short-term in the bear market, grab the rebound when it falls, and make a small band of the rebound, which can make quick money. ”
Ding Xu explained carefully, "And if you do the opposite, in the bear market for a long time, it is easy to fail, and if you don't die, you have to shed your skin." In the bull market, I am always keen on short-term, often I can only earn some fragmentary gains, and it is difficult to make a lot of money, and the returns are far inferior to those of long-term. Therefore, we must look at the bulls and bears of the market clearly in order to grasp the swing and make the money that should be earned. ”
"I see." The ally replied, "Since it is a bull market now, we have to do the long-term, and holding on is the best choice, and we can't make a lot of money by doing short-term trading." Even if you do T, you have to take risks, be careful that you can't get on the car if you do T! ”
"The allies are basically right to understand this, but for the very obvious opportunity to do T, you can still try some positions, for example, this time the effect of our T is not bad, at least more than ten points of the difference in hand. Of course, this is also risky, and it is indeed possible that you will not be able to get on the bus, so you should look at your specific situation, including your risk tolerance, to decide whether to make a T. ”
Ding Xu smiled and said, "In addition, the two sentences that Nao Teng just said, including 'there is no reason to sell stocks that are rising' and 'let profits run', are also to distinguish the occasions of use, in a bull market, there is nothing wrong with using them in this way." We can use the dynamic take-profit method and relax the take-profit ratio to about 15%, or hold it without breaking the 3O daily moving average, which is the best fuse! But in a bear market, you have to be careful with these two principles. ”
"Why?" Noisy asked.
"The risk of grabbing a rebound in a bear market is relatively large, because in the process of falling all the way, the rebound is usually relatively short-lived. If you grab the rebound but don't come out in time, it is easy to be caught by the dealer. One or two long black candlesticks that suddenly fall are enough to turn you from a winner to a loser. Therefore, at this time, you must lower the take-profit ratio a little, for example, if you fall 5% from the highest point, you will be decisively out. ”
Ding Xu explained, "In addition, according to my observation of the historical market, in the unilateral decline of the market, the first and second fall of the rebound is best not to rob, it is easy to trap people, the third fall and then to grab the rebound, it is more reliable, easy to succeed, and easy to encounter a relatively large rebound market, or even a reversal market." ”
"Miracle, didn't you say that it's a bull market now, then let's not talk about a bear market, it's not happy to talk about those days." Clumsy interjected.
"Well, let's talk about something fun, then. The recent lows of the market are about the same, indicating that it can't go down and a rebound is imminent. Steamed buns opened high and went low today, and the end of the market quickly rose, it is estimated that this time the shuffle is almost over, the adjustment has ended, and it will start to rise again tomorrow. Ding Xu smiled.
Ding Xu didn't expect that his words would be slapped in the face by the market trend 12 hours later.
The next day, November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly higher, and fluctuated in a narrow range around the integer mark of 19oo points throughout the day, with an increase of more than 1%. It closed at 1897 points, an increase of o.49%, with a turnover of 43.1 billion, and the trading volume continued to shrink.
For the trend of the market, Ding Xu did not make a prediction error, but for the trend of Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth, there was a large deviation.
On this day, Baotou Steel rare earth opened low and went low, only at 11:2o in the morning, there was a wave of rapid pull-up, after more than an hour of shock in the afternoon, the end of the market dived again, closing at 6.94 yuan, down 1.7o%, with a turnover of 42.84 million and a turnover rate of 1.49%.
"Yesterday's prediction was wrong, and today the buns did not rise, and they fell against the market, sorry everyone." After closing, Ding Xu said in the group a little depressed.
"No one is a stock god, it is impossible to predict accurately every time, and it is great that the group leader can have a success rate of 7o%." Xiaokong comforted, "And the average trading volume of steamed buns last week was more than 100 million, and today it is only more than 40 million, which has shrunk by two-thirds, indicating that this wave of adjustment is indeed coming to an end." Today, it fell against the market, but the decline was not large, and the lowest price was 6.85 yuan, which did not fall below yesterday's low of 6.82 yuan, which also shows that the main force is unwilling to let retail investors suck up chips at a low level, don't worry. ”
"Could it be that we swept the goods yesterday and alarmed the main force?" Clumsy raises a question.
"Probably not, we don't add up to a million goods." Ding Xu shook his head.
"But our funds of close to one million, all at the price of six yuan nine, are still obvious!" Ben Ben replied, "If the main force suspects that we are buying goods, they will naturally suppress it and try to scare us away." ”
"Yo, stupid and stupid, I'll try to analyze the main mentality!" Ding Xu laughed, feeling a little surprised.
"That's nature, this girl is also keeping pace with the times!" Said stupidly and proudly.
Hearing this, the guy loves to speculate on stocks and interjected: "In the future, I should pay attention to a little bit and try not to attract the attention of the main force." After all, there are seven or eight hundred thousand funds this time, and the miracle accounts for 320,000, all of which are listed at the same price before the opening of the market, which is indeed quite eye-catching. I estimate that the main force will pay attention to the list of more than 100,000 yuan, and if there is more money, it will even analyze the source of the account. Your orders are all from more than a dozen different accounts, which is a bit like the style of buying goods in separate positions. If the main force suspects that you are rushing for funds, so it affects the pull strategy, the gains outweigh the losses. ”
"Well, that makes sense, we're going to pay attention to it next time." Ding Xu nodded and said, "But this main force is too stingy, close to 3o billion circulating market value, and they still care about our little money." If it were me and I saw someone scrambling, I would open five points higher the next day, so that they could only watch! ”
Ding Xu didn't expect that this sentence would come true again.
The next day, Baotou Steel Rare Earth opened at 7.57 yuan, opening more than 9 points higher, close to the daily limit!
…………………………
(It's a hundred chapters, sprinkle flowers......
Today, a book friend sued me that he bought Tongli cement after reading the book, and the price limit has also increased today...... Hehe, the second story of reading books to earn a limit.
So far, the two stocks that the protagonist Ding Xu bought in 2oo8, China Railway Second Bureau and Tongli Cement, have recently gained a daily limit, and the trend of Guidong Electric Power and Qianyuan Electric Power written in the past two days is also good, Guidong Electric Power also rose and fell yesterday, and some book friends laughed and said that I am about to cultivate into a little stone into a golden big / law...... Hehe, these are just coincidences, and they can be used as fun anecdotes for small talk, but don't blindly buy the stocks mentioned in my book. Because the size of the stock circulation, performance, industry environment, etc. in 2oo8 is very different from now, don't carve a sword, but re-analyze.
Well, the market has been good recently, and it may be bigger than many people think. So starting next week, I will regularly announce some of my views on the current market and individual stocks, including my stock operation, which is really for the current stock market, for your reference, I hope to give you a little inspiration.
As for the present, if you want to go to work, you have to code words, you have to look at stocks, and you have to chat in the group, and the time is really tight...... And some new group members always chat with me privately and ask questions about individual stocks, to be honest, I really don't have so much time to answer everyone's questions, I'm sorry. Let's chat openly directly in the book/friend/group, there are still some masters.
Ask for collections, ask for recommendation tickets and dream cup tickets. )
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