Chapter 397: The Profound Lesson of the 530 Stock Market Crash (Part I)
Because of the long-lost surge, this night, the miracle group became a sea of joy, and almost everyone was optimistic about the market outlook.
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 1,990 points to 2,181 points, a weekly increase of 9.6.
As the saying goes, one yin line changes love, two yin lines change mentality, and three yin lines change beliefs. And the same is true for a continuous white candlestick, especially a long white candlestick like today.
Originally, there were still many people who doubted Ding Xu's 3300-point target and small bull market prediction, but with the continuous rise after the Spring Festival, especially on February 6, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4 and climbed to 2181 points, only one step away from 2200 points, everyone began to believe in Ding Xu's judgment more and more.
Even Ding Xu himself was a little fluttering.
After all, it can predict the beginning of the small bull market from 1664 points, and there have been many doubts and doubts along the way, but now the goal is being achieved step by step, perhaps according to the market this way of rising, you will soon be able to see 3328 points. This sense of accomplishment made Ding Xu a little immersed in it.
In addition, everyone regards Ding Xu as a master and leader, and there are few objections, and Ding Xu's judgment and prediction have been repeatedly verified by market trends, which also makes Ding Xu more confident.
"Don't be too optimistic, after a continuous surge, there is too much accumulation of profits, maybe there will be a big drop next week to correct the overbought pressure in the market." At this time, the big meat bun said calmly, "Have you noticed that the KDJ indicator has turned down and begun to die, which shows that it is overbought and is facing adjustment pressure." ”
This sentence can be regarded as pouring cold water on everyone.
Suddenly, someone was unhappy, and the water source said: "Meat bun, are you empty, you can't get used to us making money, so you curse the market?" ”
"How can this be called a curse, this is a matter of fact." The big meat bun smiled bitterly, "Okay, you guys just didn't say it, continue the carnival." ”
Ding Xu was a spirit, and quickly looked at the technical indicators, and muttered: "Big meat bun, the KDJ indicator you said is indeed overbought, and it is starting to die downward." However, the KDJ indicator is a fast indicator, and the more stable MACD indicator is not bad, the red column is still expanding, and the yellow and white lines are also next to the red column, and there is no overbought phenomenon. In addition, the Spring Festival red envelope market will generally continue for a week or two after the holiday, and may not be adjusted immediately. ”
"Well, I'm just alerting, not necessarily right. And you're right, KDJ is overbought, and it doesn't necessarily adjust right away, and this indicator is usually too sensitive to react and is not as reliable as the MACD indicator. The big meat bun laughed.
Ding Xu nodded.
At this time, Ding Xu was immersed in excitement, and he didn't take this sentence seriously, and soon discussed with his friends how the market would rise sharply in the future.
Sweet Orange said even more optimistically: "Miracle, I think the goal of 3300 points is still too conservative." It fell from 6124 points to 1664 points, a drop of 4460 points. According to the golden ratio, this bull market will rebound by at least half, that is, 2230 points. 1664 plus 2230 points equals 3894 points, and the future high may be at 3894 points, not 3328 points that doubled as you said. ”
"Why only half the rebound? What if it rebounds by a decline of 66, isn't it 2943 points? 1664 points plus 2943 points is 4607 points. In this bull market, I firmly see more than 4000 points! "The water source is more optimistic.
"Well, it's not unreasonable." Even Ding Xu was a little tempted, and said with a smile, "If it can rise to the position you said, won't our funds have to be doubled?" ”
"Haha, that's how it should be, we fell badly last year, and let's have a good time this year." Jade Shadow was so happy that she couldn't keep her mouth shut.
"Alas!" At this time, Banban, who hadn't bubbled for the past two days, suddenly sighed and said, "Do you think it's dangerous!" ”
"Huh?" Ding Xu was full of excitement, and hurriedly asked, "Banban, what's wrong?" ”
"Your kind of feelings of not listening to negative opinions are more dangerous! I don't think the market is dangerous right now, but your mentality is dangerous. In particular, some people can't listen to negative opinions, and even curse the big plate to say it, isn't this a fantasy? Then you start to put satellites, from 3328 points, to 3894 points, to 4607 points, if you continue to discuss it, will it reach 10000 points? If this atmosphere is maintained, there will be fewer and fewer group members who express different views, and it is easy to form a dead bullish atmosphere and ignore the potential risk of adjustment. When the market really falls, you are likely to be so careless that you don't have time to run away. Or because of premature dipping, and lose the principal. ”
"When I think about the 530 tragedy in 2007, I have cold sweat on my back. At that time, my group was similar to your miracle group, because when the market rose from 998 points to 2,000 points, many people were afraid of heights and left the market. But when the market rose to 3,000 points, many people came back. When the market rose to 4,000 points, many people went crazy, firmly saw more than 10,000 points, and couldn't listen to the opposite opinions at all, and finally were taught a lesson by the market. Even back then, I didn't expect that a news of a reduction in stamp duty would make individual stocks plummet by about 40, four or five consecutive limits. In that battle, I also died a terrible death. However, after learning that lesson, I was able to overcome my greed at the time of 5,000 points, leave the market decisively, and finally achieve financial freedom. I'm sorry, but seeing the appearance of the miracle group now, I think back to that time, so I remind you. ”
"530 tragedy, ah......" As soon as this historical event was mentioned, Ding Xu was full of emotion, because his father also suffered a lot of losses in the 530 tragedy that year.
Late at night on May 29, 2007, in order to curb the excessively rapid rise of the stock market, the Ministry of Finance. The ministry issued an emergency policy to raise the stamp duty rate from 1 thousandth to 3 thousandths, and the next day the Shanghai Composite Index opened sharply lower by more than 5, and then quickly rebounded to a position of only 2 down, and many stocks also opened the fall limit, which relieved countless worried stockholders.
However, this was the last chance to escape, and soon the market went all the way down, and the Shanghai Composite Index finally fell by more than 200 points, a decline of more than 6.5. And in the next few days, although the index was pulled by bank stocks, the index plummeted not every day, and it was red for two days during the period. But in just five days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply from 4334 points to 3404 points, down 930 points, a drop of 21.45, many stocks fell four or five times in a row, the stock price was cut in half, and retail investors were seriously injured, and they all fell into the despair of the collapse.
Many retail investors were afraid to the extreme, and after they had no choice but to cut the meat, the market began to rebound strongly. Let the retail investors who cut the meat regret it and chase the price again, but after the market rebounded, there was a second bottom, and the retail investors cut the meat again.
After coming and going, a group of middle-class people who are accustomed to chasing up and down have been eliminated, and the market has slowly risen, and finally rushed to 6124 points, but it is basically the market of large-cap heavyweight stocks, and it has nothing to do with small and medium-cap stocks. When retail investors finally recovered from their injuries and went to chase large-cap heavyweights, they were finally trapped on the top of the mountain at 6124 points.
"Well, I was too optimistic at the time. So in the 530 incident, I was not decisive enough, and I didn't go out when the stock opened the fall limit that day, and as a result, I lost a lot of profits for four consecutive days, and then the market rebounded, and it didn't rise much, so I simply didn't look at the market and went out to travel for a few months. Later, when I came back in September, the market was 5,500 points, and my stock had doubled. ”
Itabashi sighed and said, "But all in all, I was too careless that time, and I was paralyzed by the continuous rise. So when it came to 5500 points, I felt that it was almost time to lock in profits, so I left the market and successfully escaped the top. The lessons bought with nearly a million assets in the previous 530 incident were not in vain. If it hadn't been for this lesson, I wouldn't have been able to walk so steadily, and I might have lost all my profits in the bear market of 2008. ”
"Failure is the mother of success." Ding Xu said with a smile.
"Steady?" Bao Erdan asked curiously, "May I ask Banban, you said that you made more than one million yuan in the bull market in 2007, so how many assets do you have now?" I'm sorry to mention your privacy, but I'm really curious. ”
Banban smiled and said, "It's okay, I'm much richer than me, I'm just drizzle." Well, let me give you a thorough explanation, I insist on doing medium and long-term, this round of market, I made a half doubling stock, and now there are more than five million. ”
"So much!" Bao Erdan glared.
"Well, the original 1.9 million, only 100,000 was used for traveling outside, and the remaining 1.8 million was 3.6 million when I made a doubling share, and then I made another stock, and now I have a profit of 50, which is more than 5 million. It can be regarded as a preliminary achievement of financial freedom. Banban did not shy away from it, and explained in detail, "But miracle is right, failure is the mother of success, if there is no lesson from the 530 incident, I am afraid I will not be able to go now, and there is a high probability that I will not be able to escape the top success at 6124 points." If you carry it all the way down in a bear market, you will be in big trouble. ”
"What are the lessons you've learned?" Ding Xu asked curiously.
"Haha, it's a long story, I wrote a very long document at the time, and every time the market rises a lot in the future, I read this document as a wake-up call for myself. That's why I'm walking more steadily now. Banban smiled, "If you don't dislike it, I'll show you it." ”
"Wow, the experience of becoming a millionaire, look, must see!" Bao Erdan said excitedly. R1152