Chapter 398: The Profound Lesson of the 530 Stock Market Crash (II)
Next, Ban Ban shared a reflection he wrote in 2007, which listed 10 lessons learned.
It reads as follows-
"The stock market crash that began on May 30, 2007, has left us all with a painful lesson that must be remembered.
These are the lessons of blood and tears that we have summed up together, and they are lessons piled up with RMB.
Although this unprecedented stock market crash has very complex factors, such as the rumors of raising stamp duty many times, this time it was suddenly introduced in the middle of the night, which gave a lot of panic to the funds, thinking that the bull market was about to peak, so the extreme situation of capital stampede and fled. For example, the high-level underestimation of the lethality of stamp duty, and some institutions maliciously smash the market short, and the rescue efforts are obviously insufficient, etc., but from a technical point of view, the failure to adhere to operational discipline is a very important reason for the loss, and the reflection is as follows:
1. Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, there must be iron operational discipline. For example, before the 530 event, a lot of profits have been accumulated after a continuous rise, and a large number of bottom chips have been transferred to the high level, and at the same time, the K-line is too far away from the 60-day line, and there is a technical callback requirement.
After the rebound after the plunge, the market weakened again, the five-day line death fork ten-day line, the yellow and white line daily line death fork, especially the 20-day moving average began to go down, and the chips also continued to move to the high, indicating that the bottom should be doubled, and at this time it should also be resolutely left, do not think that it was repaired quickly before, and returned to the rising channel, and it will be like this in the future.
You know, the first 99 times may be fine, but a big adjustment, especially such an extreme stock market crash, is very miserable. Therefore, you can hold it for a long time and hold it for a long time, but with the short-term band operation, when the indicator becomes bad, you should leave the market first, and then enter the market when the indicator becomes better, and don't be afraid to go short. Even if you go short, your principal will not be lost, at most you will make a little less, there are opportunities in the market, and the most important thing is to ensure the safety of the principal. In terms of smaller band operations, once the resonance is formed in 60 minutes, 30 minutes, and 15 minutes, and the indicator becomes bad, it is necessary to reduce positions appropriately. At the same time, it is necessary to pay more attention to small bands, because the larger levels such as the daily line evolve from 30 and 15 minutes, and when the daily trend becomes bad, it often falls a lot, and it is easy to continue to fall deep because of reluctance to cut the meat.
2. Do right-side trading, don't do left-side trading, try not to counter-pressure in the short- and medium-term moving averages, and have not yet been arranged into a long arrangement, and there are no signs of stopping the decline to go to the bottom. I would rather give up the 10-20 rebound profit when I bottomed out, and wait for the K-line to stand on the five-day and ten-day lines, the moving average bulls are arranged, and the stock price really shows signs of standing before entering the market, and take advantage of the trend, rather than risk trading on the left side, catching the knife, and not fantasizing about the rescue measures and strength, leadership statements, and reports of optimistic predictions from the media. For example, in the past, at most one or two thousand shares fell to the limit, and there would be a strong rebound. But in this stock market crash, there were thousands of shares falling for several days in a row, and there was no real rebound during the period.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit must be controlled, don't always remember how much the principal was invested last year, and rely on the huge profits to carry it. Instead, after each operation, the new profit plus the original principal is calculated as the new principal. It is necessary to take profit according to the moving average and proportional take profit method, so as to achieve the unity of knowledge and action, and theory cannot be out of touch with practice. When the market and individual stocks have a greater risk of falling, regardless of profit or loss, they must take profit and stop loss to leave. It's better to go short, to stop losses, and not to take chances. Because even if you go short, you will only lose the expected theoretical income, and you will not suffer any loss of your principal. When the point is high, you must quit greed and dare to take short positions.
4. Think independently, make decisions independently, don't blindly follow blind faith, and have your own judgment. If your judgment is based on sufficient evidence, don't care what others in the group say or ridicule, and stick to your choice. The content of my discussions with other group members is not necessarily right, and sometimes conflicts with each other, so be sure to develop the habit of making your own judgments and decisions.
5. Pay close attention to the changes in the chip column, and be careful once the chip bar of the market and individual stocks is dense to the top.
6. If the downward gap in the market cannot be made up for three trading days (including the day), it is necessary to be very careful, because it may continue to open a second gap and begin to adjust sharply.
7. The words in the media can not be too believed, but the risk warning and tightening of funds by the regulator must be paid attention to, although the previous warning may not immediately let the market fall, but repeatedly emphasized, especially once the substantive tightening of funds, one day there will be a big risk, can not be paralyzed. Because the will of the state is something that institutions and retail investors cannot oppose.
8. Use spare money that will not affect your life even if you lose all your money, don't borrow money to speculate in stocks, overcome the gambler's mentality, don't just see opportunities and ignore risks. Take control of your positions and set aside your mobile funds. It is especially prudent to be cautious when the index is full of positions at a high level, and if the positions are not cleared during the obvious decline, at least reduce the positions to avoid liquidation and loss of principal and combat effectiveness.
9. Maintain risk awareness at all times. We must all remember this lesson in the future. Big mistakes can no longer be made. Can't afford to be wrong. The capital market is too cruel, even if you are right 99 times and wrong once, it will be very fatal. Don't be complacent, once you get carried away by victory, the risk will creep in.
10. Nine losses in ten stock speculations, only a very small number of long-term wins, to overcome greed and fear, especially when there are huge profits, we must be willing to take out a part of the profits and principal to hand over to their wives, first ensure that the family life is comfortable, no worries, do not become rich on paper, passing by the clouds. Use part of the profits to continue the game, and the mentality will be better.
Finally, no matter how much you have been hurt in this stock market crash, don't be discouraged. There are still many opportunities and opportunities in life, do your homework, improve your technical and analytical skills, and you can start all over again and create new glories.
I don't know if the above summary is correct, please correct. Finally, I wish you all good health and smooth investment. ”
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After reading this experience, Ding Xu's eyes lit up, like a treasure, and he exclaimed: "It's really well written, almost all the mistakes that can be made in the market." ”
"Don't worry, that's only half the story, there's more to come." Banban laughed, "After a week, I reflected again and added a few more!" ”
"Where is it, post it out and take a look." Ding Xu was overjoyed and hurriedly asked.
So Banban posted another document out-
"Additional words of 12 June 2007:
Today, I have made further reflections on this 530 stock market crash, and the new nine articles are for your reference.
1. Don't fantasize!
Don't expect too much from the efficiency of the national team's rescue of the market, the rescue of the city means that the market is not working, and it often takes a long time to save it. Don't wait for others to come to the rescue, save yourself first, leaving the market immediately at the beginning of the fall is the best way to protect yourself, if the first drop stop can't run away, the second drop stop also has to run immediately, don't fantasize that the profit can come back in the rebound immediately. In the past, it was often the bear market that rescued the market, so there were high expectations for the rescue of the bull market, but as a result, although the senior management also felt that the fall was too much, the attitude began to be mild, and they successively expressed their attitudes, thinking that it was unhealthy to fall too quickly, which was a heavy change in attitude, and as a result, these benefits were still no match for the collapse of the market.
Therefore, even if the market is rescued in a bull market, it is necessary to clear and reduce positions, reduce pounds on highs, and wait for the market bottom to appear on its own, and then enter the market when the market really stabilizes. Don't believe the statements of the relevant leaders, only trust your own judgment. Your preferences are your traps. When you are hoping for the bailout effect, you first dig yourself a trap woven by fantasy.
In ancient and modern times, at home and abroad, it is inevitable that the sheep will be sheared by retail investors, and this stock market crash has wiped out a large number of middle classes and completed the transfer of wealth. This is the time to wake up from a dream, and from then on only believe in yourself. Heavy mistakes, one time can be forgiven, but don't have a second time, otherwise you will pay a high tuition fee in vain.
2. Live in the moment!
Don't speculate too much about long-term trends, and set index goals, such as 8,000 or even 10,000 points. Because even if the prediction can be realized in the end, but continue to emphasize, it will form a deep-rooted cognition, and it is easy to ignore the shock adjustment risk during the period, and when encountering an extreme stock market crash, it will be very passive, and even lose the principal and bullets, and cannot see the day when the 10,000-point breakthrough will be seen. Therefore, in the future, we must live in the present, live in the current trend, and fight every band as a real battle. Small wins are big wins. Strategically, we should see the long-term trend, and tactically, we should pay attention to every adjustment and try to avoid it.
3. Free debate!
If you have different opinions on the market and individual stocks, you should debate in a timely manner, and you must be diligent in thinking and debating. Don't decide your head with your ass, you like to listen to long remarks when you are full, and you like to listen to short remarks when you are empty, or you want to speculate on stocks without emotion, and you should be cold as ice in trading! Only by doing this can you become a rational investor and win long-term. Different opinions should be allowed and encouraged in the group, and we must not think that it is Zhuang Tuo who sings short, which will only make people paralyzed and blindly optimistic. Don't make it into a hall of words, and turn it into a dead long or dead short atmosphere. The more the truth is debated, the clearer it becomes, and the collision of different points of view is very beneficial.
Especially for veteran investors who have experienced the big bull market and the big bear market, they should share their experience more, and don't be afraid of opposition from their friends, so they should accumulate merit points. In the future, I will not cater to everyone, as long as there are risks and opportunities, I will try to prompt and debate with everyone. But remember, other people's opinions are always just a reference, you must think independently, make your own decisions, because you are self-financing, don't pin your hopes on others, especially the masters you think, there are no masters and stock gods who never make mistakes in this world, only the market itself will not make mistakes, and the market will always be right.
4. Don't be paralyzed!
This market is very cruel, never forget jì, the stock market is like a battlefield, we are facing the smartest minds, the most cruel means, always be vigilant, do not be careless. After the continuous plunge and plunge again, the bailout continued to be introduced, and finally the bailout effect was very slow, so that those who wanted to leave the market wanted to wait and see, and let those who were out want to buy the bottom, and finally the retail investors generally suffered heavy losses. So, once you are paralyzed and ignore the risks, you immediately learn a heavy lesson.
5. Overcome your fears!
Do not fall into the darkness before dawn. In this 530 event, more than half of the stocks fell four times in a row, falling by nearly half, whether in a bull market or a bear market is a very extreme situation, obviously the bottom area, but there are still people in the fifth limit just opened when the meat cut, the result of the day rose sharply. When you're desperate, often the bottom of the market comes out. If you carry it to the end, only to leave the scene when the rebound arrives because of desperation, it will be a double blow to your mentality.
6. Overcome greed!
Don't just see the opportunity, don't see the risk, take the risk and fill the position at a high level. You can have a full position at a low level, but at a high level, especially in a significant downward channel, you must reduce your position, otherwise you can't bear the continuous falling limit and can't carry it at dawn.
7. Dare to correct mistakes!
Stock trading is seven points of mentality and three points of technology. Many people know the technical mode of stop-loss and take-profit, but they have a bad mentality and cannot combine knowledge and action. For example, after the fall, he always wants to leave the market when the profit returns to the highest point, and does not implement the discipline of stop-loss and take-profit. As everyone knows, first a finger is covered, then the wrist, then the whole arm, and then the whole body without a stop loss. The moment you wake up, you realize what a terrible price you have paid. Therefore, if you find that you are wrong and deviate from the actual trend of the market, you must dare to correct the mistake and dare to stop loss and take profit. The mentality must be good, the correction must be decisive, and the remaining fruits of victory should be kept in time to avoid the expansion of losses.
8. Only do slippery heads!
Don't be dead long, don't be dead short, just slippery.
When the market is in a unilateral rise, you can hold the stock patiently, let the profits run, and add some swing operations.
The moving average is arranged shortly, and when the market is in a unilateral decline, you should be patient and hold the currency. Because not losing is winning, short positions are also an operation, and falling short positions is actually reducing their future holding costs.
When the market is in a volatile market, you can sell high and buy low to make some more profits.
At different stages, there should be different strategies for holding shares and coins, and be a slippery head that adapts to the situation.
9. Don't mess up your mentality!
Despite experiencing a stock market crash, the long-term investment philosophy of gold is not outdated, but it is necessary to add a long and short-term operation, and the band operation can not be messed up. Such an extreme stock market crash situation is very rare after all, and the market will return to the normal track in the future, but the higher the point, the more shocks will be. When holding long and short (long-term holding plan plus short-term swing operation), use whatever level of K-line chart to buy, and use what level of K-line chart to sell. Can't mess around. For example, if you find a buying point on the 15-minute K-line chart and intervene, when you leave the market in the future, you will find a selling point on the 15-minute K-line chart, leave the market, wait patiently for the next entry opportunity, don't blindly change stocks, don't have your own profit plan, that will only get more and more chaotic. Only by clarifying your own ideas and plans can you make a stable profit and quickly return to blood. ”R1152