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So far, the most painful rise and fall of China's A-shares in the 90s, the bull market and bear market of that era, all seem to be very fast. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ｂｉｑUｇE。 info At that time, people bought stocks and were trapped, but it was only a few months or so, and at most a year or two would usher in the unhedging. Moreover, stocks are all up and down, and the ability to choose stocks is not too important, but the timing of selection is the most critical in that era.

The market size of that era was very small, and at the beginning there were a few small stocks, and gradually developed to more than 100, hundreds of stocks. Therefore, the rhythm of ups and downs seems to be very rapid, and the ups and downs of the market in a few months are almost the same as the market in the following years.

What really boiled people was the four-year bear journey after 01, which was the first time that Chinese investors tasted a four-year long-term bear market.

After each rally in the past four years, the bull market has not been initiated, but has continued to test the bottom. In the past few years, investors have realized that China's stock market has had such a long bear market.

Even in 2006, people were not bullish on the future growth of the stock market. After all, the Shanghai Composite Index in the past had a record high of 2,245 points in 2001.

Since bottoming out in 05 in 998, the stock price has risen to more than 1,700 points so far. During the four-year bear period, almost no such a high increase was encountered. Therefore, people have been "afraid of heights".

Rational investors may feel that it will be at least 2,000 points, after all, the valuation of the A-share market at this time is not very expensive, and it still belongs to the golden age everywhere.

If you are a little bold, you can see it as high as 3000 points. Now who dares to propose that this wave of bull market 4000 points, 5000 points, 6000 points, will be treated as a psychopath!

Still, the stock market soared to more than 6,000 points in 2007. The total market capitalization rose to 127% of GDP. The Hang Seng AH premium index broke 189.74 at the highest!

Warren Buffett linked Graham's weigher theory to GDP, arguing that the total market capitalization of the stock market is less than 70% of GDP. If the stock market speculates too much relative to the GDP size, the bigger the bubble in the market.

In the early years, the world's monetary aggregate was relatively small. Therefore, the stock market and GDP are relatively low. In the later period, it may increase with the increase in monetary aggregates, resulting in an increase in the total market value of the stock market relative to GDP compared with before. But in general, the market capitalization of the stock market is not too cheap as a whole when it exceeds GDP.

The reference value of the AH premium index is that stocks that are also listed in both the A-share market and the H-share market are compiled into a comparative index to measure the difference in valuation between the two markets.

At 6,000 points in 2007, the AH premium index rose to 189.74. It shows that the two places are listed at the same time, and A shares are 89.74% more expensive than Hong Kong stocks!

By July 2014, the AH premium index would fall below 88! In other words, at that time, A-shares were 12% cheaper than Hong Kong stocks. So, this is the next big bull market again......

As a person who has come over, Wang Qinian has been trading stocks for ten years in his last life, and he has also been trading stocks for eight years in this life, and he has experienced eighteen years of tempering in his two lives. At least for the understanding and pattern of the market, more than most people in this era.

Foreign investment gurus. It may be limited to the lack of understanding of the Chinese market, so it cannot be better analyzed. However, Chinese investors, because their experience is too short, are not like foreign veterans with a large number of investment experience of more than 50 or 60 years, who have summed up countless experiences. This era. Many book theories, in Wang Qinian's view, are even naïve and funny, and many investors have too little experience in theory. I have experienced a lot and there is no theory. In addition, there is no macro vision of the world's major markets, so most of the domestic investors are junior high school students in the investment industry, and most of them are young children in the investment industry.

What is even more comical is that a considerable number of experts and scholars in China who specialize in the theory of stocks are not stockholders, have not speculated with stockholders, and are also legally restricted and prohibited from opening securities accounts. Therefore, there are often too many deviations in theory and understanding.

In 01~07, a group of people were trained. Later, in 08~15 years, a group of people were cut off. Only through experience can we truly grow up.

The small partner company spent more than 16 million to buy Youngor, setting off a wave of skyrocketing. It once attracted the attention of many investors, but soon the small partner company stopped sweeping the goods, so some retail investors chased high and bought, rushed to the position of the price limit, and gradually began to fall back because there was no financial support.

It has been close to the closing, the small partner company sold again, swept the goods again, spent 20 million yuan, and the sell orders piled up throughout the trading day were basically swept away, but the closing price did not close at the limit, but in the last few minutes, deliberately closed, and the closing price closed at 5.38 yuan.

In the next few trading days, the partner company repeatedly made shots, and the mood of the provocative speculators fluctuated. However, the operation of only buying but not selling made Youngor's stock price continue to rise sharply.

During this period, there were naturally some securities, funds and insurance institutions, at a price of about 7 yuan, one after another, selling and smashing, obviously wanting to "teach" the new "new village". Even, at one point, two fall limits were smashed......

However, the little partner company did not refuse to come, and they all laughed and accepted.

At the end of August, 300 million funds were used up, and the partner company also announced that it held 49.13 million shares of Youngor, accounting for about 2.76% of Youngor's total share capital at this time!

It is expected that after the semi-annual report updates the list of the top ten shareholders and the top ten shareholders of tradable shares, the small partner value investment joint stock company will appear in the list of the top ten shareholders in the A-share market for the first time.

After the small partner company spent 300 million yuan to buy Youngor directly in the capital market, it soon attracted the attention of the securities media.

In this regard, Zhang Wei, CEO of Junior Partner Value Investment Company, said: "The investment in Youngor is based on our in-depth understanding of the operating conditions and financial status of Youngor. In addition, our parent company has a cooperative relationship with YOUNGOR, and in terms of price, we believe that it is relatively underestimated. Secondly, Youngor is the second shareholder of CITIC Securities, we believe that the bull market may exceed investors' expectations, the experience of foreign markets, the big bull market securities stocks will skyrocket, at present. There is only one securities company in the market, CITIC, so CITIC Securities, which is loved by thousands of people, may have risen too much. Youngor is only a shadow stock of a listed securities company, and this value is undervalued. ”

The term "brokerage shadow stocks" alone made Zhang Wei famous all of a sudden.

Because. This term has not been used in the past and is newly invented.

When people in the industry heard this, they couldn't help but sigh that the level of the small partner company!

Many market analysts have dug into the old bottom of the small partner company, and excavated the past investment and speculation experience of the small partner company, and countless speculators have been amazed.

The speculative path of the small partner company started with $100,000 and has grown to $300 million so far. So far, it has been 3,000 times the rate of return, and the annualized return on investment is more than 400%, which is a myth!

Countless investors and speculators have begun to worship the little partner company, as if they want to learn something.

However, the small partner company is very simple, recommending Graham's "Securities Analysis", "Financial Statement Interpretation", "Smart Investor", as well as Fisher's "How to Choose Growth Stocks", "The Way to Get Rich in Stock Market Investment: Investment Master Fisher Teaches You How to Speculate in Stocks", "Conservative Investors Sleep Well at Night", and "Fundamentals of Financial Analysis Research".

In addition, it is prudent to recommend Peter Lynch's "Peter. Lynch's Successful Investment", "Victory over Wall Street", "Peter. Lynch teaches you how to manage money.

The other is David. Svensson's "Unconventional Success".

After the recommendation. The small partner value investment company said: "To understand is to understand, and not to understand is not to understand." ”

As for reading these books. What can people realize, the small partner company can only spread their hands. No matter how awesome the book is, not everyone can have an epiphany when they read it.

Graham is the originator of value investing, and he laid the foundation for the analysis of the value of securities investments, basically. All subsequent theories of value analysis could not be separated from his framework.

Fisher told investors to choose some growth companies and grow with them.

David. Svensson, on the other hand, is a professional scholar who rebalances and diversifies investment and portfolio concepts. Apply to the mechanism. Its theory and practice made David. Svensson, who is both academically recognized and has a very stable long-term investment return, has become the godfather of portfolio investment theory.

Peter Lynch's book tells investors that ordinary people can also achieve good yields, as long as they pay attention to life and the things around them, and based on common sense and their own circle of competence, they can also find great companies. For example, Peter Lynch himself is a personal practice, often accompanying his family to the supermarket on weekends, he will pay attention to the service attitude of the supermarket, the flow of people, think it's okay, when the stock price is not too expensive, Lynch may buy the stock of the supermarket he visited. Even, Lynch's child is particularly fond of eating one type of ice cream, so he feels that this ice cream has an advantage over other ice creams, and then buys shares in an ice cream company......

There are so many masters, who are not only very successful in theory, but also successful in practice, and the compound rate of return for each person is very amazing.

Therefore, whether the master theory of the investment industry is awesome or not is very simple -- the master should not just talk but not practice, write a book, at least earn hundreds to tens of thousands of times the capital to be convincing.

The reason why value investing is convincing is that every value investing guru is very successful in his career and has become a billionaire before he starts writing a book.

Graham, Warren Buffett, Fisher-Price, Peter Lynch, they all became billionaires from poor boys through their own practice before retiring. After that, the idea of making pure money faded, and Graham, who was already the owner of the world's largest investment company in the 50s, decided to dissolve the company and go to teach at the university.

Warren Buffett and Munger are also a large number of good teachers, constantly using words and language to teach the concept of value investing.

Peter Lynch is the champion manager on Wall Street for more than a decade, with hundreds of millions of dollars in commissions, and he has retired. After retirement, it is better to spend time with his family, as well as write books and talk about his theories. Of course, Peter Lynch is a lover of stocks, and almost all of his speeches on almost any occasion are related to stock investment.

Fisher is not as rich as they are, but he is also a rich man. Moreover, Fisher also cultivated his mediocre son, who inherited his father's business and continued to speculate in stocks. Fisher succeeded in convincing his son that he was mediocre and not an investment genius. So Fisher's son is very conservative in his investments, so he has a positive return in the long run. It also shows that Fisher also has a hand in educating people.

On the contrary, some gamblers, speculators, wrote books that were not convincing. One vigorously advocates the stunt of making a fortune, emphasizing how to make a fortune in the short term.

There is no one more keen on speculation than the Taiwanese. In Taiwan in the 80s, the stock market rose from more than 1,000 points to 12,000 points. All families in Taiwan have changed from turtles to nouveau riche. Almost all housewives have become Mrs. Kuo. And then what...... The stock crashed and fell to 2,000 points. Countless successful speculators have gone bankrupt or lost their jobs.

Then, in the 90s, China's A-share market appeared, and Taiwan's speculative gamblers went to the mainland to "preach". In the mainland stock market, K-line analysis and technical indicators are popular, and these gambling skills are really sure to make a profit. Why did Taiwan's millions of "successful" gamblers become poor again?

-- With few exceptions, almost all the masters of technical analysis, Leven Moore and Gann, have basically gone from the extremely rich to the bankrupt and destitute.

The author of the box theory, also after making millions of dollars in eighteen months, after that, the investment performance is average, and he needs to make money by giving speeches and publishing books.

Invented the technical analysis of DMI, SAR, RSI, MOM, ATR, ADX and other classic technical indicators. WILD Flavors, although he made tens of millions of dollars on his technical indicators, but in his later years repeatedly published articles asking investors to abandon these technical indicators.

The masters of value investing are billionaires in their later years!

And the gamblers who predict stock price fluctuations by technical analysis can retire with good returns.

That's the difference between gambling and investing!

Gambling, no matter how successful a small trick is in the short term, it's just a small trick, and sooner or later it will have to be repaid.

As for value investing, it is not about making money from other gamblers in the casino, but about earning the company's profits. Therefore, value investors are disgusted with things that they can't understand and try to avoid them. Actively shrink the scope of investment and narrow the scope of investment to a "circle of competence" that you can understand. In the field of value investment, it is not that smart people who know too much can make a fortune, but some people who take the initiative to recognize their own lack of ability, admit that they are insufficient, avoid these shortcomings, and take risks in areas where it is difficult to judge.

It is precisely for this reason that value investing actively avoids risks, although, it may also miss out on some windfall profits. But so what? Profits in the market are endless, and the more important thing is the margin of safety and the control of risks. (To be continued.) )

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