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The small partner value investment company is currently in the U.S. stock market and the Hong Kong stock market, with equal emphasis on investment and speculation. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 infoEspecially in the U.S. stock market, no one believes that it is an investment.

However, in the domestic A-share market, the small partner companies still adhere to the concept of value investment, and the companies they choose are some stocks that are worth holding for a long time, with sustained profits, high dividends and so on.

The investment in Youngor is just one example, and then, the small partner company began to invest in Kweichow Moutai.

Needless to say, Moutai's profit margin is almost a money printing machine!

As the king of domestic sauce-flavored liquor, Moutai Distillery's gross profit margin exceeds 93%! At present, among the domestic listed companies, there is no company whose gross profit margin can catch up with Moutai.

If Warren Buffett had been born in China, he would definitely not buy any Coca-Cola, but decisively re-positioned Moutai. Because, from the gross profit margin and return on equity of the goods, as well as the intangible goodwill of the brand.

The only benefit of China's A-shares may be that goodwill is not counted as net assets, and the brand awareness and goodwill of many foreign companies are counted into assets, so some well-known companies overseas, assets are relatively virtual, unlike some big brands in China, even if the brand goodwill is valued at tens of billions of billions, but it will not be included in the assets, and intangible assets such as goodwill are not included in the assets. Enterprises such as Moutai had a high return on net assets in the early years, mainly because of the goodwill brand written assets, so they were underestimated. is similar to some directors and actors, when they first debuted, their salaries were very low and their own value was underestimated, so small-budget movies are easy to make big box office. Later give more money. Some directors and actors are losing money because their salaries have gone up. But talent and ability may not be much better than before.

Intangible assets are undervalued, which is since Moutai was listed. The root cause of continued profit growth. People only subconsciously feel that liquor is a sunset industry, especially in the 90s, because of the fake liquor accident, liquor fell into a downturn for many years, and it is also people's prejudice against liquor, which is deeply rooted in the bone marrow. Even if Moutai really becomes a symbol in the capital market, it will have to wait for the stock price of more than 100 yuan or 200 yuan. After becoming the king of stocks!

After Moutai became the king of 100 yuan stocks, people often paid attention to the new stock king whose stock price surpassed Moutai. As a result, any new stock king will quickly fall into a dog shortly after the stock price surpasses Moutai. It seems that the stock price has surpassed Moutai and become a bad omen! Why? Originally, there was a pile of garbage stocks, you hid aside, and no one picked your black bottom. Once they surpassed Moutai, people began to study these companies. Peel it off, and as a result, one after another. can't stand the test, so generations of stock kings, the stock price surpassing Moutai is to see the light and die, and soon fall from the most bullish stock to the most bearish stock!

Moutai will be an evergreen king in the future, not anyone who wants to surpass it!

If you want to surpass Moutai, you have to stand the test! Performance, reputation, morality, and so on have to be tested, and a little bit of a bad pool. will be hit with a killing effect.

In 06, Moutai's share price was not too expensive, only more than 40 yuan per share. Of course. Moutai's future increase is not very exaggerated, and it has risen to more than 200 yuan per share. From the perspective of stock gains, in the A-share market, which is full of 10 baggers, 20 baggers, and 30 baggers, Moutai's performance in the bull market is simply not enough.

Of course, many excellent companies may not be as good as junk companies in the bull market. The key is that after the garbage company rises, there is no performance to support, and it will still fall into a dog in the future.

For a company like Moutai, the profits and dividends are enough to allow it to cross the bull and bear in the future, so that the holder can obtain a return rate that exceeds the real estate investment. This is a huge yield that exceeds the rate of return on real estate. To know...... Warren Buffett's return on investment is far inferior to the current Chinese real estate developers, and even some home buyers.

Only a company like Moutai can have the confidence to make huge profits in the real estate industry. However, Moutai is a niche market liquor, after all, it can sell more than 10 million bottles and more than 20 million bottles a year, and if you want everyone in the country to drink a bottle of Moutai every year, you can only go crazy with wine fans, because you buy liquor stocks, you completely decide your head, and you are delusional all day long.

Of course, at present, Moutai's annual revenue is less than 5 billion yuan, the profit is about 3.5 billion, and the net profit is 1.5 billion yuan after deducting various expenses. The reason, relative to revenue, is only 1.5 billion yuan of net profit in the end. The main reason is that Moutai's tax rate is much higher than that of ordinary enterprises, after all, it is a huge profit, in addition, Moutai's advertising expenses are also amazing, and the advertising expenses are at least more than one billion a year. Every year, the gold advertising king on CCTV is mainly competing for high-end liquor companies such as Moutai and Wuliangye. In order to maintain brand awareness, it is normal for advertising not to be spent with money.

"Moutai's net assets per share are 5.3 yuan, and the stock price is 43 yuan, is it too expensive?" Zhang Wei was a little uneasy.

If you buy an Internet company, you don't consider the price-to-book ratio, but at the beginning of Moutai's listing, it was still called a sunset industry, and no one cared about it. The price-to-book ratio has reached more than 8 times, which undoubtedly makes people feel a little uneasy.

Wang Qinian often asks people to read about value investing, at least, Graham doesn't dare to buy such expensive stocks. Graham's rule of buying is generally lower than the net assets per share, preferably lower than the cash per share, that is to say, when buying, the company's plant, equipment, patents, goodwill, and survival are not to give money in vain.

Then, after the stock market crash of 1929, Graham survived the stock market crash and economic depression, but instead profited greatly.

At a time when value investors such as Graham were picking up bargains in the market and making a fortune.

A master of technical analysis, Gann was very depressed in his later years, leaving only a few hundred thousand dollars in inheritance. Most of the gains made in the stock market also lost money in the stock market crash.

The speculative genius Liven Moore couldn't stand the bankruptcy from the value of a multimillionaire, his assets shrank sharply, and he fell into a small person, because he chose to commit suicide.

So many short-lived speculative geniuses, none of them ended well. Value investment has gradually begun to shine and has become the most important textbook in the world's investment industry.

Others think about earning, Graham invests first and foremost about not losing. After buying this company, is there a margin of safety. At least the safety of its principal is guaranteed.

Because, for the margin of safety, stubbornness to the extreme. Graham may also think about the growth of a company, but not in order to anticipate future growth. And now it costs 8 times ~ 10 times the price to buy. You know, Graham's value investing rule is best given away for nothing. The usual valuation is 1 million assets, and when the other party encounters difficulties, when the money is urgent, 200,000 or 100,000 will be sold to Graham, so that he will laugh.

Of course, this is Graham's value investment. It's also a static value investment, considering the question of how much money is worth right now. As for the future, Graham does not adopt an optimistic mindset to analyze it.

And Graham's disciple Warren Buffett also started out like Graham, specializing in buying bargains, buying cigarette butt stocks worth only a small section. Until Munger influenced him and told Buffett that this asset, which cannot be seen in front of him, is expensive, and may grow in the future.

And at Munger's recommendation, Buffett read Fisher's book. Thereafter. Warren Buffett calls himself Graham 85% and Fisher 15%.

Graham's theory is like wrapping a knight in armor and holding a shield. Fisher's theory is equivalent to letting the knight get a sharp weapon to attack!

Protection, offense, all taken into account. In order to survive in the murderous market, it is better to survive, and constantly obtain new results.

"Now Moutai can earn about 1.5 yuan per share per year!" Wang Qinian smiled, "Moreover, it is expected that 40% of the profits will be divided." I expect an annual growth rate of 30%~50% in the next ten years! Note that it is not only the growth of sales, but also the net profit that can maintain such a high growth rate! ”

"Now Moutai is a large enterprise with a market value of more than 30 billion yuan, approaching 40 billion yuan. And the assets of its entire company are actually only billions of yuan! Zhang Wei said. And it can't be as popular as Coca-Cola, right? ”

"Yes, it's impossible to increase sales too much!" Wang Qinian agreed. "But Moutai will raise prices, and the continuous increase in ex-factory prices will make its profits continue to grow. What's even more powerful is that people who drink Moutai will not stop drinking because Moutai has risen from 300 yuan to 1,000 yuan or 2,000 yuan! If you give Moutai as a gift, you won't give it because of the price increase! Suppose you assume that Moutai grows by 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50% every year, even if this growth can only be maintained for ten years, ten years later! ”

"Assuming a growth of 20%, it will be 6.12 times after ten years, and Moutai will make an annual profit of 9.18 billion yuan after ten years. Assuming a 30% growth rate, which is 13.78 times, the annual profit will be 26.67 billion after ten years! 40% growth is 28.92 times after ten years...... Wait, this can't be! Zhang Wei shook his head and said.

"Okay, don't continue to deduce, assuming a 30% growth, ten years later, Moutai will be a profit of 26.67 billion yuan." Wang Qinian said.

"That's an exaggeration!" Zhang Wei said.

"Well, even if it is conservatively estimated to grow by 20% per year, it will be a net profit of 9.18 billion yuan in ten years, of course, this is a little conservative!" Wang Qinian said, "Even according to this deduction, Moutai's assets in the future are estimated to exceed more than 40 billion yuan, with a price-earnings ratio of less than 1. In addition, the price-earnings ratio is 4 times, and a large amount of dividends are paid every year, if it does not rise, it is really too much per second. ”

Regarding Wang Qinian's prediction, Zhang Wei felt a little exaggerated at first, but later felt that it was acceptable. Although Moutai is not an Internet company or an emerging industry, it has indeed grown in the past so many years. The growth rate is not necessarily much fuller than that of the sunrise industry.

More importantly, the return on equity and dividends are very impressive.

In the end, the small partner company made another large investment, 500 million yuan to sweep Moutai. Bought 10 million shares of Kweichow Moutai, once again among the top ten shareholders of another listed company.

Next, the small partner company once again caused a sensation in the A-share market, to which the small partner company only said: "Moutai at such a price now, we recognize." In the past ten years, I will not consider selling stocks, and will hold them for a long time like Warren Buffett, and share the growth of the company through dividends, rather than chasing the rise and fall like a speculator. ”

Of course, this pretending to be forced is also because Wang Qinian, as a reborn, knows that Moutai's future profit growth expectations are actually very reliable. How powerful is that? Moutai's net profit in the future is about the same as the net profit of Changjiang Industrial, a real estate aircraft carrier operated by Li Ka-shing for decades, or in other words, Kweichow Moutai's profit in ten years is about the same level as Tencent!

If you invest a few years earlier and subscribe when Moutai is listed, its yield is about the same as Tencent's, and it is more than 100 times higher!

In other words, Moutai has been listed for more than ten years, and Tencent has been listed for ten years, and the two are not counted in terms of influence. In terms of profit growth alone, it is almost the same speed.

Of course, ten years later, Moutai's speed has slowed down, and Tencent has gradually expanded into a huge Internet empire, and its profits are still growing rapidly.

However, purely from the perspective of dividend returns, holding Moutai is more cost-effective than holding Tencent! In the future, relying on dividends will be enough to get rich returns. Obviously, holding Moutai can only be a small shareholder, after all, Moutai, a company that is not bad for money, and its group parent company, which holds more than 60% of the equity all year round, is expected to be unlikely to reduce its holdings. Therefore, Moutai has the right to speak, don't even think about it...... (To be continued)

ps: Thank you for the support of Godman monthly pass, and thank you for the generous reward from the loyal ministers under the skirt

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