Thursday, January 22, 2009, the penultimate trading day before the Spring Festival.

"Today is a more sensitive trading day because at 10 a.m., the national statistics. The bureau will release the operation of the national economy in 2008. Annual macroeconomic figures including GDP growth and CPI growth in 2008, as well as a series of figures such as GDP in the fourth quarter, CPI, PPI, industrial added value and fixed asset investment in December will be released. Personally, I think that the global financial crisis last year should not be good. After all, listed companies represent the best part of the national economy, and judging from the general decline in the performance of listed companies, the overall situation of the national economy is not optimistic. ”

Before the market opened, Ding Xu said in the miracle group, "However, we don't need to be too entangled in these economic numbers, these are at most short-term effects." In the long run, the trend of the stock market and the economic data is often inconsistent, or even completely opposite. ”

What Ding Xu said was the result of his thinking last night.

The stock market is a barometer of the economy, and this statement is not true.

For example, from 2001 to 2005, China's economy was actually very good, with rapid GDP growth, but it still maintained a bear market for four years.

On the one hand, the stock market usually starts to unknowingly start a bull market when the economy is at its worst, because hope is always born in despair. And when the economy is at its best, the bear market quietly begins, because now that the best time has come, it is time to go downhill next, and those smart funds have begun to withdraw early.

On the other hand, the bulls and bears in the stock market are sometimes not directly related to the economic situation. On the contrary, it is directly related to whether the stock market system is reasonable, whether the property market and bank wealth management products are hot, and other issues.

For example, when the property market is hot. Many people will rush to buy a house. Because in their eyes, a house or a façade is something that can be seen and touched, and can be steadily valued. After all, since the founding of the People's Republic of China, housing prices have been rising in the medium and long term, and it has become a consensus that buying a house will never lose money.

At the same time, if the bank's wealth management products are also popular, the bank interest rate is also high. Then most Chinese who have a penchant for saving will choose to keep their money in zài banks or buy wealth management products.

This is related to Chinese's risk appetite, and Chinese who have experienced hardships are always accustomed to putting the safety of food and clothing in the first place.

Only when the bull market is as hot as in 2007, will many people be shocked by the stock speculation results of relatives and friends, and they can't control their desire to come to the stock market to make a handful of it, and resolutely rush into the stock market with years of savings. It's just that many people have just come in and encountered the opening of a bear market, and in the end they have lost all their money.

Therefore, Ding Xu believes that the bull and bear of China's stock market are short and long. In fact, there is a very important reason, because the investment awareness of the Chinese people is not strong. The sense of risk is very strong. Once encountering a bull market, due to the usual lack of investment experience, this risk awareness will be thrown to the back of the mind, to the other extreme, and even fall into a frenzy of enthusiasm, no matter how high the stock rises, dare to chase, no matter how high the market index rises, it is fearless, and finally taste the bitter fruit.

So bull markets are often like this, when almost no one is optimistic, smart money quietly enters the market to collect chips, and then quietly starts the market. Then experienced old stockholders found out and came in to buy the bottom. After that, with the gradual development of the market, more and more institutions and shareholders began to come in to share the fruits of victory. In the end, the bull market finally came to a hot stage, and a large number of outside funds and new shareholders were attracted in, and finally in the cheers of the whole people to make money in stock speculation, it came to an abrupt end, and ushered in a long bear road.

On this day, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher at 1996 points, an increase of 0.56%, and then rushed higher after a slight dive, making investors optimistic about the economic figures to be released.

As a result, after 10 o'clock, the economic figures came out - the annual GDP in 2008 was 30,067 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0 percent over the previous year. In terms of quarters, the growth rate was 10.6% in the first quarter, 10.1% in the second quarter, 9.0% in the third quarter and 6.8% in the fourth quarter. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 3.4 trillion yuan, up by 5.5 percent; the added value of the secondary industry was 146183 billion yuan, up by 9.3 percent; The added value of the tertiary industry was 120487 billion yuan, up by 9.5 percent.

That is to say, in the four quarters of the year, GDP growth is from a high level, especially the growth in the fourth quarter, which fell by nearly one-third compared with the third quarter, which is undoubtedly a relatively strict problem, and even lower than some institutions expected.

Because of this, after the Shanghai Composite Index soared, it began to dive rapidly after ten o'clock, and once turned green.

However, in the afternoon, led by the heavyweights, the index began to counterattack, and finally succeeded in standing above the 2,000-point mark and closing at 2,004 points.

The full-day turnover of the Shanghai Composite Index was only 67.6 billion, a sharp contraction from the daily turnover of more than 100 billion yuan a while ago.

This is actually easy to understand, after all, close to the end of the year, many people have begun to go home for the New Year, plus it costs a lot of money close to the end of the year, and a lot of funds in the market have been withdrawn, so institutions and retail investors have no intention of fighting, and the transaction on the disk is relatively light.

After opening nearly three points higher, Zhongbing Optoelectronics once soared to 27.59 yuan in the morning, an increase of more than 6%, which made the friends of the miracle group cheer excitedly.

However, in the afternoon, with the reversal of the market, the strength of large-cap stocks, and the reversal of small and medium-cap stocks immediately appeared, and they pulled back. This is probably due to the lack of funds on the market, so once large-cap stocks are launched, it has a blood-pumping effect on the funds of small- and medium-cap stocks. Institutions are selling small and mid-cap stocks in favor of large-cap stocks.

Therefore, although the index stood above 2,000 points at the end of the session, many investors who held small and medium-cap stocks did not make any money, and even lost money.

This is the lethality of the 28 market.

Zhongbing Optoelectronics is no exception, diving against the market, and finally closed at 26.36 yuan, the increase narrowed to 1.38%.

However, Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth opened low and went high, once it rose to nearly 5%, it fell back in the afternoon. It closed at $12.17. The increase was 2.1%. The turnover rate is more than 8%.

The trend of Qianyuan Power disappointed Ding Xu and Qi Fei, and it fluctuated in a narrow range throughout the day, closing at 14.16 yuan, down 0.49%.

Falling so little will naturally not make Ding Xu and Qi Fei feel anything, after all, they have already made a lot of money on this stock, and falling so little is just a little less profitable.

It's just that this kind of trend of oscillating in a narrow range every day and not dying is really a little difficult.

Because if you look at it with magic numbers. After the limit, the stock has been sideways for 7 days, and today is the 8th day. According to the magic number, today is exactly the magic number 8, and if you don't start today, you will have to wait until the 13th day, which means that there are five more days without making any money.

"Throw it away, don't wait! Wait until day 12 to sneak in and see if there is an outbreak on day 13! Near the end of the market, Qi Feijian said.

"Brother Qi, you have to think clearly. The so-called magic number is just a habit of some traders. This doesn't necessarily mean the case. We waited for 8 days before, and at this time we threw it away and then bought other stocks, which is to artificially increase the risk of the system and easily raise the cost of holding shares. What's more, it is easy to encounter a sharp rise in the stocks that are swapped out, and the stocks that are exchanged back make up for the fall. Ding Xu persuaded him.

"I've sold it. As soon as I was excited, I clicked the sell button. Qi Fei gritted his teeth and said hatefully, "I've been waiting for me for 8 days, it's like a dead salted fish, it doesn't move, I really can't stand it." I knew that I would have changed to Zhongbing Optoelectronics yesterday, and I could at least catch a board. Phew! ”

"Dead salted fish? Is it good to have a salted fish that is dead, is there still a live salted fish? Ding Xu smiled dumbly, "Forget it, if you sell it, sell it, I hope you don't fall in the darkness before dawn." ”

"If that's the case, I'll admit it. Ding Xu, I'm different from you, you are used to doing medium and long-term, and my personality is probably still suitable for short-term. Qi Fei sighed and said.

…………………………… Dividing line ..............................

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Today, our book won the first place on the starting point hot selling list for the fifth consecutive day, and I sincerely thank you for your support.

…………

Last night, it was mentioned at the end of the text: "The more times like this, the more vigilant you must be." Vigilance does not mean that you should blindly empty positions, but that you must be mentally prepared for sudden adjustments, so that when the adjustment comes, you will not panic and cut meat indiscriminately...... The current money-making effect is indeed very good, but the 4,000-point mark is not trivial, and it is definitely more difficult than the integer mark such as 3700 and 3800 points, and there may be many greater repetitions, which is to be psychologically prepared. And according to the current trend, the upper band of the rising channel since November last year is around 4,000 points, so it is facing the pressure of the upper band of the channel. In this case, intraday dives may be more frequent and deeper to alleviate the pressure of continuous short squeezing and overbuying, and it is also easy to trigger a daily level adjustment. On the one hand, the stagflation of the bottom of the safe stocks will not fall too much in the sudden adjustment, and after the adjustment, it can quickly rebound to the original position and hit a new high. It even tends to rise sharply against the trend, creating a touch of red in the green bushes and adjusting the new market hotspots in the market. On the other hand, if a deep correction does not occur, such stocks can continue to rise and continue to make profits. ”

In the April 7 session titled "There may be a large shock during the attack on the 4,000-point mark", I also made further arguments. And posted relevant technical graphics.

Today, the market has seen sharp fluctuations as scheduled. The Shanghai Composite Index failed to attack 4,000 points in the morning. At one point, it plunged to 3,903 points, a drop of nearly 60 points. After that, large-cap stocks such as banks, brokers, and insurance began to exert force, and sectors such as steel and wine also began to make up for the rise, leading the market to hit the 4,000-point mark, and finally closed at 3,994 points, only one step away from the 4,000-point mark.

Because the late game recovered the lost ground, today was the big shock I expected. And not a big fall.

However, the intraday polarization is more strict, showing an obvious two-eight divergence market, the small and medium-sized board and the gem diving is more strict, the gem once fell more than 4%, the small and medium-sized board once fell more than 3%, the decline narrowed at the close, but still fell a lot.

At this time, the bottom safety stocks are relatively resistant, and some stocks have risen sharply against the market. For example, one of my heavy positions in a stock was like this, which allowed me to successfully avoid the risk of a market correction.

And this kind of safety stock is even a short-term decline. At least it is difficult to have the risk of peaking, at most it is a pullback, and then it will be pulled back, after all, the main force has not gained much, the possibility of peaking is very small, relatively safe, and the upside is relatively large.

The following is part of the discussion in the miracle group today, which is only for your reference to my analytical ideas, and does not constitute investment and construction——

"As I said before in the weekend operation, the overall pullback of large-cap stocks is in place, including super large-cap stocks such as Agricultural Bank of China and PetroChina, which are about to have a golden cross or just a golden fork, and are ready to rush to the integer mark. Then, when large-cap stocks perform at the integer mark, it is inevitable that there will be a 28 effect, drawing blood from small and medium-cap stocks, and the main force will also take the opportunity to adjust positions and swap shares.

So there are many people who are worried, will there be another wave of index stocks flying into the sky like last year, and small and medium-cap stocks have fallen sharply?

I don't think it's a matter of worrying about that yet

Ten words can be finished, large-cap stocks take the stage, and small-cap stocks sing.

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,994 points, one step away from 4,000 points, in line with my prediction last night and in early trading. Then when the market stands above 4,000 points, there may be repeated, back and forth shocks and washing, but this week should still be able to effectively stand firm.

Once large-cap stocks run out, small- and mid-cap stocks will still be on the table. When the large-cap stocks are done on the stage, the small- and mid-cap stocks will continue to sing. This is especially true for small- and mid-cap stocks, which have not risen much since July last year.

Why?

Last year, when the market was very strict, I said many times that a single flower is not spring, and a hundred flowers bloom in spring.

Only when the profit effect of the bull market is obvious can it attract funds to continue to enter the market.

Last year, everyone complained that the profit effect was not obvious, so although the index rose by more than 50%, new investors were still observing and refused to enter. So I don't think this kind of scene will last long, and everyone will hold on to the stagflation or even falling small and mid-cap stocks until spring comes. And then, in January and February this year, large-cap stocks took a break, and small- and mid-cap stocks rose. The market is hot all of a sudden, and recently it is a daily limit of 100 shares, and the money-making effect is very obvious. Because of this, there were only 1.67 million new shareholders who opened accounts last week, because the popularity was suddenly boosted, and it was much easier to make money than in the second half of last year. There are fewer empty and trapped people, and more money is made, and new funds will naturally come in.

So how is the market outlook, it depends on the follow-up environment. Although there is a statement to crack down on small and medium-cap stocks, but now the party newspaper is still speaking out to encourage the bull market, so funds dare to go long, and the small and medium-cap stocks that have staggated in the early stage are still taking turns to be listed, such as arhats and eight-treasure porridge, and I think it will continue to rise in the future.

This point can be understood by looking at the time period when small and mid-cap stocks really made a continuous rally in 07.

So it's not the same as the second half of last year. This year will be the main rising wave of this big bull market, and the main funds of each stock want to make money, and they will take advantage of the trend. No one would be so stupid as not to exert force in the bull market, and then pull against the market in the bear market, which would take a big risk. Unless the main player can't collect enough chips, or the kind that is very strong. In the future, it is more likely that large-cap stocks will rise modestly and small- and mid-cap stocks will continue to rise generally. However, the small and mid-cap stocks that have risen sharply in the early stage must have the problem of lack of stamina. ”

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Let's talk about one thing, after today's revision of the miracle group, it is generally reflected that the effect is good, and it will be decided in the future.

In addition, some friends joked today, saying that the decline of the market depends on me, because I am writing emotional dramas again, and the market will fall as soon as I write emotional dramas. Haha, of course this is a joke, don't use the emotional drama in the book as a contrarian indicator, it's not scientific.

In fact, how to say it, every time I have a hunch that the market is going to adjust, I will write some emotional drama plots while prompting risks, so that everyone can feel that in addition to stocks, there are people and things around you that you need to care about more, and she is your harbor. That's what I'm here to be.

As a result, after this became a habit, this strange phenomenon arose. Well, we can't let our Xia Xia become a contrarian indicator, it's unscientific, so, in the future, I'm going to try to make her show her face every chapter or two...... Hey, what are you guys running? What the? Reducing positions? I'm going to go, and I'll let Xia Xia come out on weekends to breathe...... (To be continued......)