Chapter 355: Short-term and long-term, it varies from person to person
Hearing Qi Fei's statement that his personality was suitable for the short term, Ding Xu was stunned for a moment, and then fell into deep thought.
Ding Xu has always adhered to the strategy of long-term is gold, because when he first speculated in stocks, he had the experience of covering from 10,000 yuan to 90,000 yuan, which was his enlightenment in stock trading, and let him know that he could have such a high return in the stock market for the long term.
The principal of 10,000 yuan was originally a small reward given to him by his father Ding Huaiguang after making money by speculating in stocks, allowing him to get in touch with stock market investment, and helping Ding Xu buy Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth for more than seven yuan. But because Ding Xu was preparing for the university entrance examination at the time, he didn't have time to study stock speculation, so he kept throwing it there. Due to the good market in the big bull market in 2007, Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth rose to more than 63 yuan in one go. After Ding Huaiguang sold Baotou Iron and Steel rare earth for his son, he made eight times as much.
This successful long-term experience was the first time Ding Xu came into contact with the stock market in his life, and it left a very deep impression on him. In addition, his father Ding Huaiguang was keen on short-term trading, and finally led to huge losses, so Ding Xu also had great vigilance about frequent short-term trading, believing that this was not a long-term and sustainable way to make profits.
Because of this, after Ding Xu re-entered the stock market at the end of 2008 in order to repay his father's million-dollar debt, he basically focused on the medium and long-term, only bought three or four stocks in the past few months, and doubled the heavy position of Baotou Iron and Steel rare earths, and thus earned nearly 600,000 yuan in the stock market.
In the miracle group, Ding Xu has always advocated the concept of long-term speculation and advocated that long-term is gold.
The reason why it is said to be long-term speculation, rather than long-term investment, is because Ding Xu believes that stock speculation is originally a kind of speculation. Whether it's for the long term or the short term. Still speculative in nature. Merely. The risk of long-term speculation is relatively smaller, the income is more stable, and it is easier to double, so Ding Xu automatically chose this more reliable profit model.
However, the concept will always change, as Ding Xu got to know Qi Fei, Eat Not Fat, Zen Master, SS and other short-term masters, he found that as long as the technology is excellent and there is a short-term strategy that suits him, the short-term profit will not be worse than the long-term. It will be much higher even in the short term.
Therefore, recently, he has also been thinking about whether there is something wrong with a short-term master like Qi Fei, who is accustomed to short-term trading and grabbing strong stocks every day, to let him accept his long-term model?
After all, Ding Xu also knows that shareholders usually have four modes of operation:
First, if you don't have a strong short-term technology, you can understand and accept the long-term concept of gold, and adhere to the medium- and long-term stock covering model, which will have a more stable and good return.
The second is that there is no hard short-term technology, but I am used to trading every day. If you don't move the stock, you will feel itchy, so you will frequently short-term. There are many opportunities to lose, few opportunities to earn, often cut meat, usually the more you speculate the principal, the less it is, it is not obvious in the bull market, and once it is in the bear market, this mode of operation will make the principal lose quickly. Among loss-making stockholders, this mode of operation accounts for the majority.
The third is to have excellent short-term technology, and can insist on doing medium and long-term. But they will not blindly cover up, but keep doing swings, constantly making T and making short spreads around a stock, constantly reducing the cost of holding positions, and finally accumulating small wins into big wins, and the top masters can even make two or three times the profit in a doubling stock. This kind of technical master can be described as rare, and it is not as common as Zen in the entanglement.
Fourth, there is a strong short-term technology, and always adhere to the short-term. Ten short-term attempts, about seven or eight successes, and only two or three failures. In this way, the long-term accumulation may be better than blindly doing the medium and long term. Especially in a bear market, because the general trend is downward, it is easy to fail in the medium and long term, so this short-term model based on fighting for rebound is more popular.
Qi Fei is a short-term master, although the short-term technology has not reached a success rate of more than 80%, but the success rate can also be maintained between 60-70%. And his personality is relatively impatient, and he can't stand the blandness of long-term stock covering, which is due to nature.
So letting Qi Fei accompany him to do the medium and long term is indeed a kind of torture for Qi Fei, because he is not this kind of character who does the medium and long term. Blindly forcing him will naturally violate his original intentions, and in this way, he will not be happy to do stocks.
Therefore, the short-term and long-term, on the one hand, to compare efficiency and effectiveness, on the other hand, it should also vary from person to person, personality and technology are suitable for short-term, should be short-term, and personality and technology are suitable for long-term, then go for long-term.
In terms of profitability, the two are the same.
Ding Xu promoted the medium and long-term profit model in the miracle group, just to prevent an extreme, that is, there is no excellent short-term technology and good short-term mentality, risk and ability, but he still does the short-term operation mode every day, that is, the long-term life, the short-term heart.
And this extreme is the operation mode of most stockholders, and it is inevitable to lose money.
As for Qi Fei, there is an exception, he is the chief analyst of Sun Securities, and his short-term level is still good. For example, at the end of December 25, 2008, Qi Fei bought 27,700 shares of Qianyuan Power at an average price of 11.50 yuan in the cooperative account, spending a total of 318,550 yuan. Today is January 22, 2009, he cleared the warehouse at an average price of 14.10 yuan, sold a total of 390,570 yuan, deducting commissions and stamp duty for a total of 389008 yuan, plus the original balance of 1,224 yuan, and 390232 yuan of funds.
This time the short-term operation, in fact, is far from the imaginary main rising wave, most of the time Qianyuan Power is sideways, so Qi Fei really can't stand this flat trend, so he decided to clear the position. In less than a month, the yield reached 22.6%, which is not very high, but it is still passable, at least much stronger than most retail investors who chase the rise and fall.
Of course, Qi Fei will not be satisfied with a slightly higher record than ordinary retail investors, he is also the chief analyst, so he gritted his teeth and swore: "Tomorrow I must find a big bull stock to surpass your Baozi and Zhongbing Optoelectronics!" ”
Ding Xu smiled and replied, "Brother Qi, I wish you a dream come true." ”
The next day is Friday, January 23, the last trading day before the Spring Festival.
Morning. Ding Xu began to look through the morning news. As a result, all we saw was less optimistic news.
Thereinto. The forecast news of the 2008 annual report is mostly some performance mines, such as the net profit of Black Cat shares in 2008 is expected to decline by 90% to 100% over the same period last year. Previously, the company had expected a year-on-year change in net profit of no more than 15% in 2008.
At the same time, the asset impairment phenomenon in the annual report of steel is also relatively strict. For example, in the annual report forecast released by Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., the provision for inventory decline in 2008 was about 1.807 billion yuan, which made the company's net profit drop by 55%. Sangang Minguang expects net profit in 2008 to decline by 70%-100% year-on-year, and Liugang's performance is expected to decrease by 98%. Earnings per share was less than $0.01. In addition, the performance of Anyang Iron and Steel and Linggang in 2008 was reduced by more than 50%. Ning Special Steel 2008 pre-loss, the steel industry's annual report can be described as a downturn.
The news from the external market is not very good, for example, the U.S. stock market fell sharply in early trading on the 22nd, because Microsoft's earnings report was disappointing, and the performance of companies such as Nokia and Seagate Technology was not good, and the number of new housing starts just announced also hit a record low. It can be seen that the impact of the financial crisis is still relatively large, which made the US stock market fall sharply for a while.
"The bearishness continues! On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, can the market survive and have a closed door? Ding Xu shook his head. Lost in thought.
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(I sincerely thank "wyld778899", Lu Yu 2015, "Evil Laughter" and other hardcore book friends for generously rewarding the alliance leader of this book, welcome to the alliance leader group (miracle group) family exchange.) Good luck and good luck.
Today, our book won the first place on the starting point hot selling list for the sixth consecutive day, and I sincerely thank you for your support.
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It may be because of the Tietong network used, the home and office have not been able to open the starting point Chinese network author background since yesterday, so there was no update last night, only the disk homework was uploaded. I called Tietong just now to refresh the client.,It's not easy to get on the author's background.,But it's still very stuck.,So the noon update won't extract the names of the new alliance leaders one by one.,Forgive me.。
In addition, let me declare: the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious! This book is pure fiction and should not be imitated.
Another book does not recommend any stocks, only discusses stock trading techniques, investment concepts, and analytical ideas, for readers to study and improve technology, in order to achieve the goal of teaching people to fish, so as to implement the spirit of "protecting the rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors" advocated by the high-level.
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The following is part of the content of the April 9 disk operation "Three test gaps without breaking, the market is still healthy" passed last night, for your reference to my ideas, which does not constitute any investment construction:
The night before it was mentioned at the end of the text: "The more times like this, the more vigilant we must be." Vigilance does not mean that you should blindly empty positions, but that you must be mentally prepared for sudden adjustments, so that when the adjustment comes, you will not panic and cut meat indiscriminately...... The current money-making effect is indeed very good, but the 4,000-point mark is not trivial, and it is definitely more difficult than the integer mark such as 3700 and 3800 points, and there may be many greater repetitions, which is to be psychologically prepared. And according to the current trend, the upper band of the rising channel since November last year is around 4,000 points, so it is facing the pressure of the upper band of the channel. In this case, intraday dives may be more frequent and deeper to alleviate the pressure of continuous short squeezing and overbuying, and it is also easy to trigger a daily level adjustment. On the one hand, the stagflation of the bottom of the safe stocks will not fall too much in the sudden adjustment, and after the adjustment, it can quickly rebound to the original position and hit a new high. It even tends to rise sharply against the trend, creating a touch of red in the green bushes and adjusting the new market hotspots in the market. On the other hand, if a deep correction does not occur, such stocks can continue to rise and continue to make profits. ”
Last night, I mentioned at the end of the text: "Today, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,994 points, one step away from 4,000 points, in line with my prediction last night and in the morning." Then when the market stands above 4,000 points, there may be repeated, back and forth shocks and shuffles...... Once large-cap stocks run out, small- and mid-cap stocks will still be on the table. When the large-cap stocks are done on the stage, the small- and mid-cap stocks will continue to sing. This is especially true for small- and mid-cap stocks, which have not risen much since July last year. ”
Today, the market continued to fluctuate back and forth as scheduled, but the magnitude of the shock was somewhat beyond expectations, especially the decline of small and medium-cap stocks, the decline of the gem once exceeded 5%, and the small and medium-sized board once exceeded 4%, and the Shenzhen market has seen a long-lost stock fall limit. However, the end of the GEM was miraculously reversed, and the decline of the small and medium-sized board was also controlled within 2%.
When I explained it after the game, I thought that this was actually a good thing, and it was healthier to wash. At least the 88 curse is a latent bomb for the market, after such a continuous sharp fall, some funds adjust their positions and exchange shares to reduce their positions, anyway, it is conducive to the market to release continuous overbought pressure.
And the market is still healthy overall, although the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 90 points at most, a decline of more than 2%, but the end of the market is still controlled within the 1% decline, only touched the five-day line, the low point is 3900 points, slightly lower than yesterday's 3903 points, but did not fall below the low of 3891 points on April 7, let alone to make up for the gap of 3864-3891 points on April 7.
The three-day lows are relatively similar, and despite the continuous big dives in the intraday, they are unwilling to fill the gap, and this breakthrough gap is basically declared valid. So many times the backtest does not fill the gap, indicating that the short capital can't wait for the gap to be filled, and is still eager to enter the market as soon as there is a fall. Today, the Shanghai market turnover is 816.7 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen market turnover is 683.2 billion yuan, a total of 1,499.9 billion yuan, which is about the same as yesterday. Moreover, the three lows are similar to the three flat bottoms, and the three test gaps are not broken, but instead enhance the energy of the next step to officially stand above the 4,000-point mark.
In any case, as I predicted a few months ago, I feel that this year's high should be above 4944 and will not stop at 4000. And judging from the current uptrend, 4944 points is likely to underestimate the energy of the broader market. Those who worry about the peak of the bull market as soon as it falls are really overly worried. This adjustment is still the inertial squatting before the subscription of new shares, and the squatting before the jump, so there is no need to panic.
In the early and middle stages of the bull market, our nerves should be bigger, not to see the wind or rain, and only in the later stage of the bull market do we need to walk on thin ice and tremble. The crazier you are, the more you have to be calm. The more hesitant and wait-and-see, the more bold and careful you must be.
That's the way to make a profit.
I also suffered a little loss in market value today, but I'm not worried, I overslept during the nap, and I didn't wake up until the end of the day, and I was ashamed of my nerves, haha.
After the market, I looked forward to the future of this wave of bull market in the miracle group, reviewed the market since last year, and said that I was a little emotional, because I really felt that this wave of the big bull market was not easy, we retail investors have been in the bear market for so long, and it is not easy to wait for a big market, we should cherish it, should not be afraid of wind and rain, do not be scared of adjustment at every turn, and finally chase up at a high level.
If you want to reach the top, don't be afraid of the sudden wind and rain on the mountain road, take precautions and bring an umbrella.
Today's Shanghai index fell by only 1%, we have experienced the Shanghai index fell more than 7% on January 19, almost a thousand shares fell to the spectacular scene, what can today's decline be, will soon be recovered - the Shanghai index of the 15-minute MACD has been about to golden cross, if the rebound after the golden cross is strong, the 30-minute chart will also be a golden cross, driving the daily line to attack again.
As I said today, in the middle of a bull market, the bold are killed and the timid are starved. In the later stage of the bull market, the timid will be killed and the bold will be starved.
Why do you say that, today I analyzed it in the chat records of the miracle group, and in tonight's disk homework, I will also excerpt some of the chat records for your reference and think about the future direction.
Well, last night's chapter shouldn't have used the title of "Dead Salted Fish", let alone predicted that Xia Xia was coming out again in the last paragraph, but some people really quickly reduced their positions, and then avoided some losses in today's big fall. Could it be that Xia Xia really can only come out on weekends to show her face again? Hehe, again, this is just a joke with the reader. Well, it's not scientific, don't take it seriously.
I wish you all a great profit tomorrow. In addition, no matter whether it rises or falls, the stock market is only a small part of life, to maintain physical and mental health, exercise more, and do not have to be old to keep an eye on the market. People are outside the stock market, and their hearts are in the stock market, so that's fine. (To be continued......)