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The investment logic of Graham's time was to be cheap, and cheap had a margin of safety. Pen | fun | pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 info builds on the margin of safety and then thinks about making money. For example, 1 dollar buys 4 or 5 yuan of assets. Even if this asset has low growth, low profits or even losses. It is necessary to wait for the market to warm up, or even if Mr. Market is crazy, someone is willing to pay three or four yuan, or even ten yuan to buy this asset, and he will get several times to ten times the benefits.

Graham's model is based on the collapse of the U.S. stock market in '29, and countless stocks are cheap.

However, it was not all smooth sailing for Graham back then, after the US stock market crash in 29, Graham's company was also affected, because many shareholders and customers ran on it, and they almost went bankrupt, but fortunately, Graham's father-in-law injected tens of thousands of dollars in assets and cash, so that Graham's company was saved from bankruptcy and liquidation. Because of the winter, the Graham myth was able to continue. In the 30s~50s, it was a period when Graham's investment philosophy matured and yielded stable returns. Moreover, during this period of time, Graham has cultivated a bunch of value investment masters, and these disciples of Graham have created miracles one after another.

Graham's disciples are basically stock gods - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Windsor Fund's John Brown. Neff, founder of the index fund, John . Borg, the 107-year-old veteran stock investor on Wall Street, is the longest-lived veteran stock investor on Wall Street. Kahn, Walter. Founder of Schloss...... All of them are long-term excellent investors known for value investment, with an annualized investment return of 12%~25% within a few decades.

Some create dozens of times the rate of return for customers, and some create thousands of times the rate of return for customers. The most successful is Warren Buffett, who has generated tens of thousands of times the return on his shareholders through more than 50 years of investment.

People say that Warren Buffett is not the most like Graham because. Graham's other disciples were more conservative and more Graham. In fact...... This is a misconception!

If Graham is the Confucius in the field of value investing, Warren Buffett should be Mencius in the field of value investing!

Warren Buffett is very much like Graham, and even has a father-in-law who supports his career. It's all similar!

According to Warren Buffett's own statement, when he was young, he studied under Graham and mastered a very authentic and royal value investment concept. However, at that time, Buffett was still a poor man and did not have much principal. However, Buffett's father-in-law gave almost all his property to Buffett. Let him have more money. Otherwise, there may not be any Buffett myth.

To sum up, the godfather of securities investment and the god of stocks need to have a good father-in-law. A good father-in-law can reduce ten years of struggle.

Of course, this is a crooked building. Warren Buffett's successful investment is built on the Graham framework, adding a little analysis and prediction of the future. Graham, for example, survived the collapse of the United States in '29. Fortunately, I encountered a long-term downturn in the stock market, and I could buy stocks very cheaply. Buffett didn't meet it.

As a result, Warren Buffett began to stop choosing cigarette butt stocks, which, although they have a margin of safety, are at most only worth the stock price rising above net worth. Moreover, cigarette butt stocks are mostly unpopular and do not have much trading volume for a long time. It's not so easy to sell when it's critical.

Therefore, on the basis of combining stock price safety, low price-to-book ratio and price-earnings ratio, Buffett boldly assumes the company's future prospects. Therefore, Buffett dares to buy an asset for 3 dollars. Because, he analyzes that in the future, this asset may grow to 10 yuan in ten years, which is no less than the return rate of safe cigarette butt stocks. After 20 years, if the company continues to grow, it is possible to create dozens of dollars, so that it may be more cost-effective to buy a good company stock at a reasonable price than to buy a mediocre company or a cigarette butt stock company at a very low price.

Warren Buffett's investment is more technical than Graham's, and the uncertainty is stronger. Of course, in terms of yield, Buffett also surpassed Graham.

Of course, Warren Buffett did not deny Graham, but because he really had no way to buy cheap and incredible stocks, he would choose to buy good companies at a reasonable price. Of course, it's even better if you buy good company shares at a much lower price than the reasonable price. And if you buy the shares of a good company at a much overvalued price, you may suffer a loss!

Graham's static value investment is to go to the vegetable market to buy vegetables, and cut the vegetables from ten yuan to two or three yuan to buy them.

Warren Buffett's value investing is a dynamic value investment, which is equivalent to buying a hen, which will continue to lay eggs in the future, creating benefits ten or twenty times higher than the bought hen.

Wang Qinian fully agrees with Graham and Buffett's investment logic.

But he is taking it a step further, not only for long-term value investing, but also for some short-term speculation! Even if it is speculation, it is based on value!

Wang Qinian's value speculation logic is that to buy a hen at a reasonable price, this hen may continue to lay eggs in the future, everyone thinks that this hen will lay a lot of eggs, and begin to think that eggs will hatch chicks, chicks grow up and give birth to more chicks, and they may get thousands of chickens in the future, so they are willing to buy many times more expensive than the reasonable price of the hen. Therefore, Wang Qinian happily sold the hens to those who bought them at a high price, and fulfilled people's expectations for the future performance growth of the hens in advance.

Shengda is undoubtedly the "hen" that is favored by many people and thinks that the future is immeasurable!

……

Within a few days after May 13, 2004, Partners Value Investments spent $12 million to buy 1 million shares of Shengda on the NASDAQ market, with an average of $12 per share.

In the next few trading days, the stock price of Shengda soared!

On May 24, it had risen to $16 a share. That is to say, the partner company has made a profit of $4 million on the stock of Shengda, with a floating profit of 30%!

And countless people are running in the market, and the media is constantly commenting. Shengda's market capitalization is about to catch up with the three major portals of NetEase, Sohu and Sina, and has the first place in the market value of the Chinese concept stock market.

At the same time, the market value of Chen Tianjiao's holdings. It also exceeded 3 billion yuan. Of course, Wang Qinian knows that in a few months, Shengda will rise, and the market value of Chen Tianjiao's shares will increase to 10 billion yuan. For a short period of time. surpassed Netease Ding Lei, New Hope Liu Yonghao and other richest people to become the new richest man in China.

Of course, Chen Tianjiao's short-lived rise in the richest man because of the sharp rise in stock prices only lasted a few months. After the media hyped up Chen Tianjiao's status as the richest man, in fact, Shengda's stock price has fallen, and then, he is no longer the richest man.

So. The richest man in the capital market is actually a bit unstable. As soon as the stock price rose, he became the richest man, and as soon as the stock price fell, the richest man was replaced again.

In Wang Qinian's eyes, only the richest man in the real net worth ranking is the real richest man. In terms of market capitalization, it is not so scientific.

"Boss. Do you want to throw it away? The company employee asked.

"Don't worry, the market sentiment is still very optimistic. Wall Street and the domestic media are boasting about the prospect of victory, and the stock price can still be blown up! Wang Qinian smiled and said, "And Shengda went public to get 150 million US dollars, is it a lot of funds?" Not much at all! We can speculate on big stocks, and a few shares are enough to turn tens of millions of dollars into profits! The partner company will not be listed for financing, but it ...... We will speculate on the stocks of those listed companies. The stock price rises and cashes out, instead of our own company to go public for financing! ”

Wang Qinian's tone is a bit like some neurosis, shouting that the stock market is used as a cash machine during the bull market, as if it is easy to make money by speculating in stocks.

And actually. Most of these fools preach everywhere when they make money, and they are silent when they lose money. This can easily lead to a misleading information.

But Wang Qinian, because his "circle of ability" far exceeds most people.

Well, the so-called circle of competence, that is, Buffett and other stock gods proposed, only buy assets of companies or industries that are very familiar. Only by having a deep understanding of the industry and the company can you judge whether the valuation is expensive or cheap. After having a reasonable judgment on the valuation, the stock price will only be bought if it is under a reasonable valuation, otherwise, it will always be waiting until that opportunity arises. If you can't wait, you may not buy it for decades.

And the patience of value investors is often very good, and after being patient for decades, although they do not buy, they keep tracking. Perhaps, decades later, a good opportunity to pick up bargains will be found. For example, Warren Buffett was optimistic about Coca-Cola when he was young, but it was in the 80s, when he was in his fifties, that he bought Coca-Cola stock.

This shows how cautious and cautious value investors are when buying stocks.

Wang Qinian's circle of competence is a prediction of the future. It is not only known that the stock prices of these companies rise and fall, but also that the judgment is made based on the future earnings of the industry.

In fact, many people's optimistic estimates are actually based on optimism about the company's future. It's just that it's easy to be too optimistic, and the stock price is overhyped all of a sudden, overdrawing future performance.

For example, Shengda will usher in growth in the future, but!

During the year, the company will hit $40 a share, and the market value will exceed $2.5 billion, surpassing the three major portals and winning the first place among China's Internet listed companies!

When Shengda's market capitalization hit $2.5 billion, its company's net worth was just over $200 million. Therefore, this is the reason why Shengda's stock price has been in a downturn for many years. Because, too expensive, overdraft future development.

No matter how great a company is, the price is expensive, and investors have to turn off the lights and eat noodles when they buy, and for a long time, they will not get a positive return, but will taste the bitter fruit.

This is the same as buying shares of Microsoft Corporation, which was as high as $42 a share in '99 and had a market value of nearly $500 billion. For many years after that, Microsoft made a lot of money, but the stock price did not rise for more than ten years, and it may take more than ten years to untie the shareholders who chased up and bought Microsoft in 99. Some people complained that this was Gates selling Microsoft's stock arbitrage every year, causing Microsoft's stock price to not rise.

But in fact, this is related to the fact that Microsoft's stock price was too overvalued in '99, and people overdrew their expectations for future performance in advance. As a result, it took Microsoft more than a decade to earn profits and assets to match its market value.

Therefore, any great company, people are too optimistic, and the stock price is sky-high, it is not worth holding!

The current market value of Shengda, relative to the net assets and profits at this time, is actually quite reasonable - more than 30 times the price-earnings ratio!

At the end of the year, Shenghui will have a market capitalization of more than $2 billion, and the price-to-earnings ratio is more than 60 times. Such a valuation, perhaps, was nothing before the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble! Compared with the later companies on the A-share Growth Enterprise Market, the valuation is not crazy. However, compared with the NASDAQ Internet listed companies in the same period, it is still on the expensive side - much higher than the market value of Tencent, which will be listed soon, and much higher than Baidu, which was listed in 05.

It is precisely because of this that the market is too optimistic about Shengda, which also leads to the overvaluation of Shengda's stock price in the short term.

Buy at a reasonable price and sell when overvalued!

This is actually ...... It's quite in line with the logic of value investment! (To be continued.) )

ps: The first update, thank you for the support of the monthly pass!

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