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"Boss, what is our investment philosophy?" Zhang Wei, who serves as the CEO of the small partner value investment management company, asked. Pen ~ fun ~ pavilion www.biquge.info

Although Zhang Wei studied finance, he has not been mixed in investment institutions such as brokerages, funds, and insurance. was originally an ordinary financial officer in the small partner company, and later followed Wang Qinian to engage in stock investment and became a professional trader. Because he carried out his orders without compromise, he never made any mistakes, and he was also very diligent and studious, and he was familiar with the famous works of various masters.

What's even more rare is that he draws inferences from one another, knows how to think, not only superstitious Buffett and other value investment masters, but also studies quantitative investment researched by a group of mathematicians led by Simmons. As well as another investment guru, David. Svensson's Portfolio Rebalancing Philosophy.

It is difficult to explain how Simmons makes money, because he is a representative of the complexity of investment, countless mathematicians have studied the probability of making money, and a bunch of computer gurus have written automated trading software and tested it repeatedly. After that, Simmons's Recreation Company was simply a computer that made money automatically, and no one needed to do it. The role of humans is in the observation and modification, and the software and mathematical models are constantly modified and upgraded.

David. Svensson's portfolio rebalancing, which is at least understandable to mortals. Based on his own academic research, he is at the helm of Yale's multibillion-dollar funding, and through portfolio rebalancing, he has managed to escape the overvalued bubble and invest in undervalued areas. This rebalancing philosophy makes his success unconventional, neither traditional value investing nor trend investing, but a low-risk rebalancing investment.

This philosophy was successful, allowing the Yale University fund to achieve an annualized return of 16 percent. Although, the return on investment is lower than that of Warren Buffett.

But due to the rebalancing of the portfolio. It is more operable than value investment, and it is also in line with the objective laws of value investment. So, David. Svensson has trained batches of qualified financial talents, and sent talents to well-known institutions such as the Harvard University Endowment, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Endowment, the Princeton University Endowment, the Rockefeller Foundation, the Hilton Foundation, and the Carnegie Foundation.

And the "Yale model" made David. Svensson became the godfather of the American investment community. It seems that later Obama came to power. Restoring the U.S. economy is also please. Svensson served as a member of the Advisory Council on U.S. Economic Recovery for two years, and the results were fruitful.

It seems that in this era, there are countless people talking about Buffett in China. And talking about David. Svensson is almost rare, because, very few people know about him.

However, Zhang Wei is David. A die-hard fan of Svensson. The evaluation is even higher than that of Warren Buffett.

Wang Qinian has high expectations for him, and hopes to train him to become a Buffett and David of a small partner company. Svensson.

"Value investment is the mainstay!" "At the same time, each of you can keep an account and practice your own investment philosophy and style. There is no point in investing in a short period of time, if after five or ten years, you have proven your ability. Well, the company may give you a dedicated team! ”

"No matter how good you are, you are not as good as the boss!" Zhang Wei said with a smile.

"Alright. Don't talk nonsense. First open a position of 1 million shares of Vale and 1 million shares of CNOOC Services! Wang Qinian said.

Vale is listed in both the Brazilian and American markets.

CNOOC Services is now listed on the Hong Kong stock market and will be listed on the A-share market in the future, but the price is certainly not as cheap as it was when it was listed now.

The partner company has an account with a multinational brokerage firm like Interactive Brokers, and basically, most markets in the world can be invested.

Hong Kong stocks and U.S. stocks can be easily played.

"Boss. Do you expect oil prices to continue to rise sharply, and resource prices to rise as well? Zhang Wei asked sensitively.

"Yes! Obviously, oil prices were below $30 for a long time last year. Now, due to the ongoing war of the United States in Iraq. resulting in a decrease in oil supply. In addition, with the rise of China's economy, the demand for oil has risen. So, the price of oil is rising, this is an ironclad thing! Wang Qinian asserted, "At least in the next ten years, it is almost impossible for oil prices to return to the price of $30 a barrel!" Even, it is not impossible for oil prices to rise to $100 a barrel in the future. Therefore, I chose to invest in CNOOC, which is a Hong Kong stock company. Originally, it was okay to invest in PetroChina, but PetroChina has begun to rise from less than 1 Hong Kong dollar to nearly 2 Hong Kong dollars, and it will rise in the future, but the increase is definitely not as good as CNOOC. CNOOC was listed on the Hong Kong stock market last year, and the price was depressed. At present, it is about HK$2 per share, which is almost standing still compared with the listing price. CNOOC offshore oil extraction has a higher technical content and a higher threshold, and it is a new oil company, with a younger, more energetic team and higher efficiency than PetroChina and Sinopec, which have historical baggage. Because it is more focused on upstream exploration and extraction, it is also more sensitive to oil prices. ”

Wang Qinian complained in his heart, damn Buffett, when PetroChina was less than 1 Hong Kong dollar, he quietly did not say hello, swept the market in a low-key manner, and spent hundreds of millions of dollars to buy, buy, and buy, which led to the rise in stock prices. And Warren Buffett bought 1.1 billion shares of PetroChina directly in the market, which shows how cheap PetroChina was at that time, tempting the stock gods not to understand this company, but they couldn't resist the low price. I haven't seen any management of PetroChina, I haven't called to communicate with PetroChina, and I just bought 1.1 billion shares just by eating the chips of retail investors in the market!

Later, when the price of oil rose, there were too many fools, forgetting that the oil industry was actually a cyclical industry at that time. Before 2003, oil was below $30 a barrel for a long time. The rise in oil prices has led to a surge in the performance of oil companies, which is not sustainable. What if, the price of oil, falls again? What about prices below the break-even point of oil companies?

Therefore, Buffett sold and sold to buyers who frantically snapped up PetroChina at a price higher than HK$10 per share.

made ten times as much, but he was ridiculed by people for selling the stock god early. But in reality, he is simply locking in earnings and selling at a time when PetroChina is not cheap and oil prices are at record highs.

And oil prices cannot only rise and fall, and the beautiful performance of oil price peaks will not be the norm. Wait until the price of oil falls. Oil companies all over the world will be very down, and there is no reason to believe that PetroChina will be an exception! After all, oil is a very international business, and the big oil companies are not very different.

It has to be said that value investors are smart investors!

Value investors do not sell in the case. There is only one premise, the company is not only great, but also that the stock price is low and cheap. When the stock price is expensive, all value investors will sell it.

Holding stocks for a long time to earn dividends is because it has not gone crazy, and once it goes crazy, value investors will definitely sell it to other receivers.

The fool who understands value investing as "just selling and not buying" must not have taken Buffett seriously; Graham's biography. They don't sell stocks. Simply because there are no fools who are about to speculate on sky-high prices. Once there are too many fools, they will definitely be sold to fools.

Smart investors, in fact, are the right ones - shrewd businessmen make reasonable profits, not risk making more.

For example, a businessman invests 1 million yuan to buy a shop that earns 200,000 yuan a year, and if he is not in urgent need of money, someone else will pay 1 million yuan to buy it. Then this shrewd trader certainly does not consider selling (5x P/E). 2 million yuan, and not very happy to sell (10 times P/E ratio. If there is a grievance, the boss is willing to keep shouting. Shout to 10 million, 20 million (50 times ~ 100 times P/E ratio). And savvy businessmen have investigated other markets, and there are similar shops that have not increased in price. Then, a shrewd businessman must choose to sell his "not for sale" precious shop at ten times or twenty times the price. And then...... With this money, he bought 10 shops in other places and opened a chain of stores.

If you put smart investors. Equating it with an excellent industrial boss will allow you to understand the logic of value investors.

The Chinese historical masterpiece "Historical Records" describes how to make profits from doing business - "In summer, you will be in the skin, in the winter you will be in the fine linen, in the drought you will be in the boat, and in the water you will be in the car, so as to wait for the lack of money." ”

The businessmen described in the "Historical Records" are value investors in the stock market. Buy cheaply, then. Sell to "customers" who are willing to buy.

In other words, value investors should define themselves as businessmen, and the goods they buy are "stocks". A person who receives an order at a high price from a value investor is regarded as a "customer".

Therefore, doing business can always make money from customers, and opening a casino can always profit from gamblers, which is a value investor, standing on the side of the probability.

"Boss, what if the price of oil falls instead?" Zhang Wei suddenly had a whim.

"It is not possible in the short term, the United States is mired in the Iraq war, and oil is unlikely to fall. However, when oil prices fall, airline stocks will benefit. Wang Qinian said.

"Boss, if we do this, we buy half of the aviation and oil stocks, and the price of oil rises, the oil company must be crazy, maybe not only doubled, but also several times higher. At the same time, the probability of an airline bankruptcy is unlikely, and the stock price will not fall. Zhang Wei expounded his opinion.

"Go on!" Wang Qinian was thoughtful.

"Let's say that oil companies double and airline stocks fall by 90%! Our assets have increased by 5% compared to our initial investment! Zhang Wei said confidently, "At this time, we backhanded the money we made from oil and increased our holdings of aviation stocks." Oil can't rise forever, and there is a possibility of falling, as soon as oil falls, airline stocks will benefit, which may replicate the logic of the previous surge in oil stocks. And so on...... It's almost hard to lose money! ”

"Well, it's kind of interesting, and then balance the investment, but it's better than David. Svensson's model has a lot more funds! Wang Qinian said with a smile, "Choose two industries with different cycles and rebalance investment." As long as the chosen two industries do not disappear completely, the company will not go bankrupt. This kind of investment, indeed, is theoretically profitable! In particular, taking advantage of people's positive sentiment, the bubble has amplified, and the increase far exceeds the premium brought by the actual performance growth. Investing in the opposite industry with your backhand and waiting until the cycle transitions can indeed get a good rate of return! ”

After Zhang Wei was affirmed, he couldn't help but feel very excited.

As for the oil industry, counter-cyclical industries can be found to invest in this model, and iron ore, it is not easy to find a counter-cyclical industry.

In the end, the newly established investment target of the partner company was revised, and 1 million shares of Vale cost $3 million, at a cost of $3 per share.

In addition, under Zhang Wei's suggestion, the oil and aviation industries should rebalance investment. Therefore, it bought 2 million Hong Kong dollars of CNOOC and 2 million Hong Kong dollars of China Southern Airlines assets.

At present, both stocks are very cheap, and CNOOC Limited is only HK$2 a share. China Southern Airlines is only 1.3 Hong Kong dollars a share.

These stocks, bought with their eyes closed, also know that the future is two words - make money!

……

Of course, companies such as CNOOC, China Southern Airlines, and Vale can bring several times and ten times the gains in their stock prices at the peak of the future. But it will take a few years, and Wang Qinian will seize the opportunity of a huge rate of return in the short term to create benefits for the company.

And this opportunity is created by the listing of peers!

May 2004. The company's competitor in the game industry, Shengda Network, went public. According to the introduction of Shengda, in 2003, the company's revenue was more than 76 million US dollars, and the net profit exceeded 33 million US dollars, before the listing, the total assets of Shengda company have exceeded 100 million US dollars!

With dazzling performance, Shengda rang the bell on the NASDAQ in the United States on May 13 and went public! The issue price was US$11, and more than 13 million new shares were issued, raising US$150 million. In other words, the financing assets, the capital owned by Shengda, suddenly doubled, for other competitors in the market, is a major threat.

The small partner company is also hotly discussing the listing of Shengda.

But Wang Qinian saw an opportunity!

"Buy 1,000,000 shares to win!" Wang Qinian gave an order.

"1 million shares?" Zhang Wei hesitated.

1 million shares, equivalent to $11 million, and Shengda is still rising, conservatively estimated, it will cost more to buy so many shares.

Spending the equivalent of 100 million yuan?

"Yes!" Wang Qinian smiled and said, "Mr. Market, you are so optimistic about Shengda." In terms of profitability, Shengda surpassed Sina, Sohu and NetEase, which have been listed. And Chinese concept stocks have given many U.S. stock investors a very good impression. If you miss a hundred times NetEase, and if you miss dozens of times Sina and Sohu, people will definitely go crazy and buy the victory that has not yet risen sharply! This anticipation, coupled with the fact that Shengda is indeed growing, may form a Davis double-click effect! ”

"It's all speculation!" Zhang Wei complained.

"Yes, it's speculation, but it's also an investment!" "Shengda is now valued at less than $1 billion, and last year it made a profit of $30 million, which is about 30 times the price-to-earnings ratio. But it's growing, and there's not much debt. If Shengda is willing to sell the company, I am more than willing to buy it at this price! After all, Shengda continues to be profitable and has the second largest online game user base after us. With the merger of Shengda, we can maintain our advantage for a few more years, and we are not afraid of others grabbing our market share. (To be continued.) )

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