At the end of the day, Tianyu Fund is just a hedge fund with a capital size of about $2 billion, and although there are not many hedge funds with such a capital size on Wall Street, it is nothing compared to a country's foreign exchange reserves.

The most important thing is that the Tianyu Fund has no name in the international financial community, and does not have the same energy as the Quantum Fund, so it is impossible to impact a country's monetary system, and it is also the monetary system of Brazil, the leader of South America.

As happened in '92, first of all, there had to be a problem with the economic development of a certain country, and then behind this imbalance was a rigid and rigid exchange rate system, both of which were indispensable in order to constitute a prerequisite for an attack on the currency of a country or region.

Moreover, in the process of attacking, the amount of money on the attacking side is much greater than that of the attacked party, because as a national regime, it may mobilize funds from outside at any time to protect its own currency. For example, in 92, the United Kingdom borrowed a large amount of dollar funds from countries such as Germany and Shijie Bank or large international financial institutions, and it is difficult to say whether the pound would have broken away from the European exchange rate system if it were not for the fierce attack of international funds.

Therefore, when Zhong Shi said the news that Andrew went to Brazil, Gu Shizhong's first reaction was that Zhong Shi was going to short the Brazilian real. But then he had a sneering look on his face, apparently thinking about how difficult it was to short a country's currency.

"Of course not!" Zhong Shi shook his head slowly, categorically rejecting Gu Shizhong's speculation. "Although South America was financially liberalized in the early nineties and its currencies were freely convertible, most of the currencies of these countries were pegged to the US dollar. Although it is a fixed exchange rate system, these currencies are still traded in futures in some currency markets, and if I want to short a country's currency, the most howard form is to open a position in the IMM. ”

A trace of shame flashed on Gu Shizhong's face, and after coughing unnaturally, he quickly returned to his normal color. He thought for a moment, then continued to ask, "If it's not real, then Mr. Zhong wants to make coffee." Or maybe it's sugar, soybeans, corn and other crops? ”

Brazil has an extremely developed agriculture and animal husbandry sector. It is a major producer of sugar, coffee, corn, soybeans and other crops on Shijie, and these varieties are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Remembering that Zhong Shi had just concluded the trading of copper futures in the LME, Gu Shizhong could easily associate a similar trading method.

"Not either!" Bell Stone again denied it. He's a bit of a cocoon now, and it's hard to explain what exactly Andrew sent to Brazil. If in the near future, the Brazilian stock market will plummet. Surely none of you here will believe it. He will even be asked about his sources. He won't be able to explain it then. After frowning and thinking for a long time, he explained with some difficulty: "Because the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the South American economy, which is their backyard, is also growing. Among these countries. And since Brazil has the largest economy, and the Brazilian stock market has stock index futures, you can share the benefits of economic growth, so I sent Andrew to check it out and prepare to invest in the Brazilian market. ”

It was also his quick reaction that he found such a seemingly viable excuse in such a short period of time. Although several fund managers are surprised that Tianyu Fund's business does not involve the South American market and lacks research talent in this area, there is nothing wrong with Zhong Shi's statement, because the South American economy is largely dependent on the American economy.

Several major economies such as South America and Central America, such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile and other countries, have encouraged the inflow of foreign capital after the financial opening, and most of these inflows come from the United States, such as Brazil, which has attracted more than 12 billion US dollars of foreign capital in recent years. These capitals are closely linked to the economies of South American countries and the United States, and it can be said that they are both losses and prosperity.

While the U.S. economy is growing strongly, the stock indices of these countries are all growing to varying degrees, so Bell Stone's statement is not groundless.

Seeing that everyone stopped asking questions, Zhong Shi secretly breathed a sigh of relief, and immediately changed the topic, turning the focus of the discussion back to the game between Japan and the United States: "Regarding the current trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, you can share your views. ”

The negotiations between the United States and Japan on auto parts have been going on for more than half a year, attracting the attention of almost all relevant personnel, especially investors engaged in related industries and paying attention to the exchange rate market.

"Personally, I think that in the end, the Japanese side will compromise. Although they have changed several prime ministers, they rely too much on the United States diplomatically and militarily, and the current economic situation in Japan is not optimistic, even if they are kidnapped by large car companies, they still cannot compete with the United States. Now although the two sides are tense, the Japanese side has shown timidity, and I think now they just need to go down one step. Hearing the talk of trade talks between the United States and Japan, Koo regained the shrewdness of a fund manager and analyzed the current situation between the two sides.

"I disagree!" "According to the latest opinion polls, the Japanese people's favorability towards the United States has fallen to an all-time low, and even the Liberal Democratic Party, which has always been pro-American, does not dare to compromise with the United States." Moreover, the recent continued appreciation of the yen against the dollar has squeezed a large part of the profits of Japanese automakers, so it is likely that neither side will reach an agreement until the deadline for Section 301. ”

It is very rare for two views on the same thing to be so extreme, and it also shows the opposing attitude of the United States and Japan towards this trade negotiation.

Zhong Shi knew that in the end, in May and June of 95, the two sides reached a compromise, and the final result was that both sides made a concession, and the United States successfully let the American parts enter the Japanese market, and the Japanese side also kept other markets except auto parts, and both sides claimed that they withstood the pressure and won this negotiation. Of course, Super 301 doesn't really put it into action. Because once this clause is really implemented, it will have an immeasurable impact on both sides, and even the United States and Japan will start an all-round trade war because of this.

But what happened in between, which caused the always hard-line Clinton administration to abandon its usual position, is not clear to Zhongshi and does not want to know.

Zhong Shi did not mean to settle the dispute between the two sides, but he analyzed the difference between the two from an investment perspective: "Large car companies like Toyota and Honda have suffered the most losses in this trade war. Therefore, shorting them at this time is the most haode time. But we must also note. If the U.S. and Japan reach an agreement, the share prices of these automakers will soon return to normal levels. You can be selective in these stocks, but be careful about timing. ”

"Also, if there is a trade war between the two sides. Then the entire export of Japan will be in a situation from which it will be lost. Because like Europe. It is highly likely that the United States will follow in the footsteps of the United States and launch a trade war against Japan on the same grounds. At that time, there will also be a great opportunity to short the Nikkei, and at the same time, there will be a lot of fluctuations in the yen exchange rate. There are also huge investment opportunities, what do you think? ”

At this time, Zhong Shi had given up on the idea of involving them in South America, because he really couldn't explain whether there would be a currency crisis in Weishenme. And most importantly, they have a small amount of money that doesn't help the bigger picture.

For Zhong Shi's analysis, several fund managers nodded yes, similar to the conclusion of long or short car companies, they may also come to a little analysis, but like Zhong Shi standing at the height of a country to analyze the conclusion of the exchange rate and index, they are a little powerless, this is not that they are not enough, but they usually study individual stocks and industries, and their grasp of the macro aspect will naturally be slightly insufficient.

After saying another word about the views of other markets, Zhong Shi announced the adjournment of the meeting. He originally convened this meeting to let everyone enter the currency market operation with him, but after a little conversation, he realized that his idea was a little naïve, so he gave up the idea.

Two days later, the heads of large commercial banks such as HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Chase came to the office of Tianyu Fund, and they came at the invitation of Tianyu Fund.

On the HSBC side, Zheng Yang, the managing director in charge of credit business, is Zhong Shi's old acquaintance, although the two sides have only one side relationship, but when Zheng Yang sees Zhong Shi, he is like seeing an old friend, and he is not seen at all, which makes Zhong Shi impressed by his public relations ability.

As for Standard Chartered, it is Zeng Yuanshuang in the Asia-Pacific region, this beautiful and delicate lady is also Zhong Shi's old acquaintance, and she is now the financial manager of Standard Chartered Asia Pacific.

Chase, a credit manager for the Asia-Pacific region, a white manager named Jeremy. Compared with the heads of HSBC and Standard Chartered, the tall white manager is much lower in rank and has a somewhat arrogant attitude towards Zhong Shi. Coming from the U.S. headquarters, he deals with world-renowned funds on Wall Street, and he looks down on the Asian financial industry from the bottom of his heart, so when Tianyu Fund extended an invitation to Chase, Jeremy was a little unimpressed, but eventually came to the office of Tianyu Fund.

"Oh my God, it's rudimentary. I can't imagine you working in such a place! When Jeremy visited the office area of the Tianyu Fund, he sneered unceremoniously in front of Zhong Shi.

Hearing such extremely rude words, Zheng Yang and Zeng Yuanshuang glanced at each other, and they both saw the banter in each other's eyes. They knew that this time Chase didn't want to get the Tianyu Fund list.

Unlike Jeremy, Zheng Yang and Zeng Yuanshuang have done their homework before coming, and both of their private banks have invested some funds in the Tianyu Fund, so they have heard a little about the performance of the Tianyu Fund. In less than a year, the flagship fund of this fund company has recorded an excess return of up to 90%, which shocked them, and if it were not for the fact that the fund was not open to the public during this period, they would have invested their net worth in this fund. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you very much for the monthly ticket support cast by Jiangnan Liu Feiyan! At the same time, I would like to thank all the book friends who have paid attention to this book recently, and everyone at Xiexie!