Chapter 117: Preparing for Financing
In terms of Tianyu Fund, a total of nearly 20,000 long positions were closed on this day, and the profit on the account reached 250 million US dollars. There are still 5,000 lots of positions left, most of which have been newly opened in recent trading days in order to raise the price of copper futures, concentrated in December and January, and the average price is also relatively high.
On the Sumitomo Trading Company's side, 10,000 new positions were added on this day, bringing their positions to 45,000 lots, which is already the largest long position in the entire market. However, due to the large size of their previous positions at the low level, the average price of the entire position did not exceed $2,800, even if the price of the new positions in these two days was not low.
That is, they are currently earning close to $500 per contract, and the entire position has made a profit of around $220 million so far. It was also their second highest profit for the year, and now all they have to do is gradually liquidate those positions.
However, for Sumitomo Trading, it is obviously unlikely that it will want to liquidate this part of the position. Because they were originally players in the metal futures market, they needed to hedge in the financial futures market for many years, but now they have departed from the original intention of hedging and turned to manipulate the market price; Second, if they close their positions on a large scale, the shorts who are counterparties with them will not agree, because once the position is closed, the market price will fall, and the gains outweigh the losses for the shorts who are mainly hedging.
Therefore, they can only gradually turn their positions to other months and gradually control them in the process. This process of opening a position can take weeks, or even months. Therefore, it is inevitable that copper prices will remain high during this period.
In fact, what happened later also proved this, as the only bull in the market, Sumitomo Corporation fought with the bears in the copper futures market, and the stalemate between them for more than half a year, even when the fundamentals were not conducive to high copper prices, Sumitomo Corporation, still single-handedly kept the copper futures price above $2,750, and even the short side was ready to give up, but due to the double pressure of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the LME, Sumitomo Corporation was forced to give up Yasuo Hamanaka. and led to the largest loss in the capital market.
The next two or three trading days. Copper futures prices began to enter a downward channel after a slight adjustment, but due to the fact that the fundamentals have not changed, coupled with the impact of the Chilean strike, the price of copper futures has not fallen below $2,950. After a few uneventful trading days. The bears also realized that it was unlikely that they would be able to push the price of copper futures to $2,800 or even lower in the short term. They began to have jihua close positions at the peak of trading in November. Instead, he fought with the bulls on other months' contracts.
But none of this had anything to do with Zhong Shi, who flew back to Hong Kong after the market closed on Friday. The finishing touches were left to a few traders who remained in London, and he had already worked out a specific strategy, which was to gradually close all positions at a higher position, and then sell the 100,000 tons of spot copper at a higher price.
After returning to Hong Kong, Zhong Shi only took a week's break and began to work in the office of Tianyu Foundation, this time not for anything else, but to borrow money!
In the offices of Tianyu Foundation, the floor-to-ceiling windows offer a panoramic view of Hong Kong Island, and even the hustle and bustle of the pier in the distance on a clear day. Zhong Shi was lying on the comfortable sofa chair with half-squinted eyes, looking half-asleep, but in his mind he was thinking about his next investment move.
"Bonds...... This is okay, but the current interest rate hike cycle in the United States is not over, and according to the course of history, this rate hike cycle will be at least until March next year. However, it is also possible to open positions now, because as the US economy develops, the demand for financing is also growing, which can offset the adverse impact of rising long-term bond yields due to interest rate hikes. Well, just do it and start buying US bonds. ”
"By the way, there are still 10,000 short positions in the treasury bond market, although there is still the possibility of making a profit, but at this time, there is no need to continue to hold it, so it is better to close it." Thinking of this, Zhong Shi dialed the phone number within the fund.
Although Zhong Shi did not pay attention to this batch of positions during this time, in terms of Tianyu Fund, he has been paying attention to this investment and reporting to Zhong Shi from time to time. However, these positions have been profitable so far, and Zhong Shi has only swept away the relevant reports every time he sees them.
"Mr. Zhong, I don't know what you called us here for?" As soon as the managers of the Tianyu Fund had gathered in the spacious conference room, Maxim couldn't wait to ask.
During this period, Maxim was proud, and his fund returned 22% in most of the year, while the S&P 500 rose less than 1% in the same period, mainly due to Maxim's capture of several financial stocks related to interest rates, which has such an excellent performance.
Maxim invested in the Japanese market for a while, but when the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike, he immediately keenly perceived that the American market should have greater opportunities, so after applying to Zhongshi, he switched to operating in the American market.
The other two main players who focus on the Japanese market, Taio Sato and Gu Shizhong, have similar investment performance, with only 5% performance so far, which is quite good in the current increasingly sluggish Japanese capital market, so Zhong Shi did not say anything.
In addition to Maxim's fund, the performance of other funds investing in the European and American markets is not very good, and there is even a 10% loss, although the market is facing greater systemic risk this year, but business is business, and Zhong Shi has let the fund manager named Christian leave.
"Ladies and gentlemen, there has been a very good investment opportunity recently, and I need to inform you about it." Zhong Shi did not immediately answer Maxim's question, but unhurriedly threw out another topic, "You are all senior managers of our fund, and I believe that you must have a good understanding of the internal global macro and commodity performance. If not, I can say here that after two in-the-futures market operations, we reaped a total of $500 million in earnings by December. ”
"In addition to this, there are also $200 million in gains in the U.S. bond market. Now I also have a 2% return in the Hong Kong bond market, which is about $14 million, and now the net value of my fund is around 1.91, which means that I have doubled the global macro and commodities fund in less than a year. ”
"In fact, the total net value of this fund has exceeded 2 because I did not include the short position in US Treasuries that I still have in my position. The 10,000-lot short should now make a profit of around $110 million, and the price of the US 10-year Treasury bond is now at 95-16. I don't plan to continue to hold this part of the position, and I will close this part of the position when the US side opens. Zhong Shi nodded at Maxim as he spoke, this part of the position is operated by Maxim, and he is also most familiar with the profit. When Zhong Shi said the specific value, he did not open his mouth to refute it, because he knew that what Zhong Shi said was true. Although he was unimpressed by Zhong Shi's attempt to close the position, he knew that it was not up to him to decide.
"The reason why I say so much is to reassure you that my investment ability is not below you!" Although Zhong Shi said it politely, all fund managers know that Zhong Shi's investment ability is far above everyone present. Not to mention the size of the funds, the current 100% rate of return alone is enough to make everyone here ashamed, not to mention a fund with a capital scale of up to $1 billion.
Maxim was the first to stand up and flattered him with unusual respect: "Mr. Zhong, your ability is above all of us, this is a recognized fact, and I believe that everyone here has no doubts. Just say, what are the recent investment opportunities in haode? ”
"Currency crisis, another currency crisis!" Zhong Shi slowly glanced at the managers present, nodded with satisfaction, and then said something that shocked everyone.
Even though it has been more than a year since the European currency crisis, the first reaction of most financial practitioners is still shock. What happened in '92 and '93 is still vivid, and the order of the entire financial market is chaotic, and some people even feel that it is like the end of Shijie.
Maxim is extremely calm, first, because he is an American, and has no worries about currency crises, and secondly, because of his adventurous spirit, which is both a crisis and a great opportunity for such a wide-ranging currency crisis, especially for an enterprising fund manager like him.
"Tomorrow, I will bring in the executives of HSBC, Chase, Standard Chartered, Bank of America and other banks, and I will use the current funds to borrow, as for how much, the more the better, and this part of the funds is mainly in US dollars, in addition to these, it depends on which one has a lower interest rate. In addition, the conditions for those HAODE banks operating in South America can be appropriately relaxed. Instead of answering Maxim's question, Jongshi gave orders one after another.
"Standard Chartered also needs to use their channels to focus on them, because their business in South America is significantly ahead of HSBC. I've sent Andrew to Brazil first, where he'll be in charge of front-line operations. ”
"Mr. Zhong, are you going to short the Brazilian real?" This time, Gu Shizhong was the first to speak, he is most familiar with the South American market, and knows that in July, Brazil just issued a new currency, called the real, and the exchange rate with the US dollar was set at 1 real to 1 US dollar. (To be continued......)