Chapter 48: The Power of Gossip
This is definitely a big bearish for the Japanese stock market.
However, it remains to be seen how much of a role it will have for the Japanese market today. In any case, this is a positive sign.
"What about our money?" Maxim's first thought was not the huge amount of money in their hands, but the money of those investors who had misappropriated it.
While shorting the Japanese market, Jim had the audacity to put the funds entrusted by investors into the maturity index market privately, hoping to make some extra profits from it.
In the last week, he made about 10 million dollars in profits from his private funds, which made him very excited, and in a flash of brain, he put all the profits back into the market, and established more than 1,000 lots.
The fourth quarter is now over, and soon the fund will release its research and outlook for the new quarter, as well as an update on its net worth to investors.
Before preparing to return home, Jim also wrote a warm thank you letter, first thanking Xiexie for their support during the year, and then proudly announcing that they would double the fund's net value in the coming year.
In retrospect, this promise may have been made too soon.
After silently thinking about it in his heart for a long time, Jim gritted his teeth and said in a low voice: "Let's see the reaction, I don't think the Japanese market will fall so easily." At most, we can't close it, and investors can redeem it if they want to! ”
Maxim, who was standing beside him, had a changed face, did not speak for a long time, and did not know what he was thinking.
Jim's wishful thinking was clearly wrong, and the Japanese market was not as strong as he thought, even very fragile.
On the first trading day of the '90s, the Japanese market opened slightly lower than the previous trading day, and everything seemed to be fine, but before the opening bell stopped, sellers in the market threw out a large number of stocks, looking menacing.
This is a psychological test to test the reaction of the Japanese market to the bearishness. If the market can continue, the short seller may have to think carefully about what to do next, on the contrary, the transaction will be a little difficult, then the follow-up offensive will continue to strike.
The result is neither good nor bad, after a period of reaction, these stocks are still taken over, it can be said that the short party and the other party are shallow and retreat.
The Japanese stock market fell 0.52% on the day, falling 202 points to close at 38,712 points.
On January 5, the second trading day, the Nikkei continued to fall, falling 1.13% on this day, losing 438 points to close at 38,274 points, and once approached 38,000 points during the session, but it was still stubbornly held.
On the third trading day, the downward momentum slowed down, and the index fluctuated by 20 points throughout the day, but the intraday Haode funds faintly had the momentum of counterattack, and the highest point even exceeded 38,500 points, and finally closed with a slight decline.
On the fourth trading day, the decline did not stop, falling by 343 points, or 0.9%, throughout the day. On the fifth trading day, the opening figure was the highest point of the day, and it even fell below 37,500 points during the session, and finally barely closed at 37,696 points.
In five trading days, it fell by more than 1,200 points, which is more than 3% lower than the highest point of 38,957 points.
These points seem like a lot, but compared to the huge figure of more than 30,000 points in the Nikkei, it is nothing at all, and analysts believe that part of it is a structural adjustment, and on the other hand, it is the digestion of bad news. Most analysts at Zuihou believe that the bull market in the Japanese stock market is not over yet, and it is still possible to rush to 40,000 points in the future.
The market reacted quickly, and on January 11, the Nikkei Stock Average turned around and rose, increasing by more than 400 points throughout the day, but in the next four trading days, it all fell back again, and soon fell below 37,000 points, closing at 36,729 points on January 18.
37,000 points is a watershed moment, and analysts generally believe that the market has fully priced in the bearishness, after all, this figure has fallen by nearly 2,000 points from the highest point of the stock market, and the decline has also reached 6%. This time, however, many of them expressed cautious optimism about the market outlook.
In fact, the declining stock market has attracted a lot of attention, and at this time, many large companies and big people have come out to speak out one after another, expressing strong confidence in the future of the Japanese economy.
In January, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun already had 20 well-known entrepreneurs predicting the stock market, some of whom were later revered as "gods of management", but at that time they were all optimistic about the Japanese stock market, even believing that the Nikkei index would rush to 42,000 to 48,000 points.
The speech of the big man ignited the enthusiasm of the stockholders, and in the nearly one-month period from January 18th to February 16th, the Japanese stock market did stabilize its position, fluctuating in the range of 37,000-38,000, and it seemed that it had entered a period of continuous adjustment and oscillation.
During this time, on the Singapore Exchange, the short seller can be said to be arrogant, they have never watched the Japanese stock market fall every day like now, and then they just looked at the profits in their accounts.
2,000 points, converted into dollars, is 6,700 dollars, 300,000 lots is 2 billion dollars, of course, these are the ideal cases for opening a position at the highest point. In fact, Jim and his team made more than $1.4 billion in profits during that time, although in the next few trading days, a third of that money evaporated from the rise in the Japanese stock market, or a billion dollars.
They can be described as a big breath of evil!
They had been losing money before, and they rarely made money sometimes, but now they finally made a comeback, which made almost everyone in the operation room extremely excited.
The reason why almost everyone is because there is Jim, and unlike the excited traders, he is very distressed at this time.
His hedge fund has suffered heavy losses in this wave of decline, very severely.
It has to be said here that his fund is not registered with the regulatory authorities, so there is not much restriction on the use of funds, which is why he can freely transfer funds to other investment areas.
It's like a person taking his own money and investing whatever he wants.
But the problem is that the money is not his own, it is with the connections he has worked hard in Japan over the years and the trust in his past performance that some people are relieved to hand over the money to him.
Everything is easy to say when making money, but in case of loss, those people will not care about the past feelings, but they are afraid that they will immediately withdraw their funds from here.
It's okay to say that it is just a matter of resigning the funds to fate, but these people take care of the money for him, and they have explained in advance that investing in the Japanese stock market is not a futures index market that is dozens of times riskier than the stock market.
Once these people know that he has embezzled funds without permission and invested them in the futures index market, I am afraid that they will immediately kill them.
Jim knows how terrible Japanese gangsters can be.
Although he cleared his position in time, he still lost $20 million of his money invested in the Singapore futures market, and now he has less than $40 million left in full.
In just four weeks, it rose from 50 million to 60 million, and then fell to 40 million, and the net worth went from high to low like a roller coaster, and even Jim's future and fate also went up and down.
If Jim can stop in time and return the funds to the investors at this time, I am afraid that there is still room for things to turn around. Accustomed to the power of making money in the futures market, it was difficult for him to reinvest his interest in the Japanese stock market, and the market outlook was uncertain, so he decided to wait and see.
Unlike him, Zhong Yi opened a position at the highest point, and 8,000 contracts earned him more than $50 million. Zhongshi decisively cleared all February contracts in mid-January, and instead built 9,000 short contracts in March, April and even May.
He doesn't remember the exact chart, but he knows that the collapse of the Japanese stock market is unstoppable, and it doesn't make much sense to just dwell on a one-month contract at this time, and now as long as you follow the general trend, you will earn a lot of money.
January and February are coming to an end amid the ups and downs of the Japanese stock market. The Nikkei stock average has not moved much in these trading days, and it seems that the Japanese stock market will not change much in the short term.
Zhong Shi also returned to the mainland, the purpose of his coming to Hong Kong has been achieved, and when the time is right, it is just a phone call for Andrew to clear all the futures fingers.
At this time, Andrew had already bowed to Zhongshi a little, and the Nikkei was developing according to Zhongshi's expectations, although he didn't understand that Weishenme would accept it if he didn't see it, but this time he obediently closed his mouth and operated according to the strategy left by Zhongshi.
As the days passed, just a few trading days in February, it seemed that the Japanese stock market would spend the same days as the previous dozens of trading days. Suddenly, out of nowhere, the news came that the US Mercantile Exchange will soon launch Nikkei 225 index futures. (Sorry, I didn't find out the specific time of the launch, so let's take it as this time!) )
As soon as the news came out, the market was in an uproar.
On the premise that there is already a Singapore Exchange and an Osaka Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has also launched the Nikkei Index Futures Index, the implication of which is self-evident, that is, to suppress the Japanese market.
Throughout the history of the capital market, every time stock index futures in each market withdraw, the corresponding market has plummeted, and this is the case in the United States, Hong Kong, and even Japan now.
Weishenme will be like this, and this has to start with the market. Generally speaking, most of the support for the rise and fall of stock prices is the confidence of investors, after all, not everyone will know the set of value investing.
Although the market also provides a short-selling mechanism, such as margin trading, etc., this method has various requirements and restrictions, and does not allow the short-selling mechanism to fully play its role.
For example, if an investor wants to short a hot stock, then he has to go to a brokerage to borrow the stock, and it is difficult to do it in the market with a hot and fierce upward momentum, and it is difficult for the short seller to short without a stock to sell.
Futures refers to this thing, and the underlying thing is an index, not a substantive thing, and does not need to be borrowed. And to a large extent, it is linked to the confidence in the whole market, and the performance of the stock market is complementary, when the stock market rises, it rises, and when the stock market falls, it also falls, on the one hand it is a catalyst, on the other hand it is a prospect chart.
The pros and cons are obvious!
The Japanese market reacted quickly!
Fell! Plummet!