Chapter 47 Successful Position Building
"It's today!" Zhong Shi, who is far away in Hong Kong, is gearing up, and he is going to do a big job.
"No, you still want to continue to short the Japanese market?" Andrew, who came back to his senses, looked shocked and even a little angry. Previously, Zhong Shi threw away all the empty orders, and he thought that Zhong Shi had given up this idea, but now it seems that he did not give up the idea of shorting, but was looking for a more haode opportunity.
"Look at it, the Japanese stock market has been rising for four consecutive days, plus today's high open, it must be another day of rising, how can you go short?" Andrew held a drawing of the recent movements of the Japanese market and poked and pointed.
Zhong Shi didn't take Andrew's violent reaction to heart, in fact, no one can stop his action now, Liao Chengde and Zhong Yi, who knew this, both closed their mouths in amusement, looking like they were ignorant.
"Yes, the Japanese stock market is rising, but Andrew, you don't find it, the rally has slowed down in the past few days, and it even smells of the end of a strong crossbow." Zhong Shi was not annoyed, but enlightened Andrew with great interest.
"Uh...... I'll admit you have some point. However, this does not indicate that the Japanese market will be in the future, and there is still a great risk of shorting. Andrew looked at the chart carefully for a while, and had to admit that Zhong Shi's words had some truth.
"You're right, but you have to know that the United States is a country that will not let anyone take its hegemony, and it will definitely take action against Japan. It will not tolerate Japan's superiority over it in the past decade, and the inflated Japanese economy is caused by it, and now it will probably be up to it to puncture it! ”
"But you're not sure it's the nearest one, or maybe it's not around 40,000?" Andrew still wasn't convinced.
"Well, I'll give you an example!" Zhong Shi patted his head and said with some hatred, "If I have two Nikkei options in my hand now, one is long and one is short, I will sell the long one to Japanese companies and the other to overseas funds investing in the Japanese market, what do you think?" ”
"The current rise in the Japanese stock market has strongly stimulated the confidence of local companies, and in this case, they will definitely accept the contract. The question is, does the overseas fund Weishenme want to buy short options? Andrew was a little confused.
"Yes, that's going to involve the study of Japan's macroeconomy! In fact, for macro research, of course, international investment banks are the best. Haven't you noticed that in recent months, Goodman and Stanley have released a series of bearish reports on the Japanese economy, which all mention that Japan's real economy is growing rapidly on the surface, but in fact the growth rate is much lower than the growth of the stock market and the real estate market, and the gross profit of export trade is declining, excluding the growth of capital gains and real estate prices, the pre-tax profits of these companies are lower than in the seventies, what does this mean? This shows that the current growth is a false boom, and the essence is a bubble! ”
"The international fund industry attaches great importance to the analysis reports of these large investment banks, and they will definitely find this fact after analyzing the financial statements of the research companies. So in this case, what do you think they would do in order to hedge risk? ”
"Buy the short futures index options issued by the National Investment Bank!" Andrew's voice lowered, and he realized that Zhong Shi was looking for all kinds of macroeconomic data and research reports from international investment banks like crazy during this time.
For these internal research reports that are only provided to large fund companies, it is impossible for ordinary investors to get them, on the contrary, they can often get reports with opposite opinions, maybe seven or eight out of ten outflow reports are true, but there are one or two core reports on the analysis of the general trend that are false. In this kind of real and fake, it is difficult for ordinary investors to distinguish between the real and the fake.
"And then?" Andrew was still a little unwilling.
"This is simple, investment banks take advantage of this information advantage, sell all the options, receive a lot of fees, and at the same time, they also master two kinds of comparable liliang. Now, they have the ability to decide when to burst the bubble! ”
Zhong Shi smiled faintly, looking a little unfathomable.
"Is that now?"
"I don't know. However, it should be when these options are free to circulate in the market. As far as I know, bankers started selling these options in Japan two years ago, and then they appeared in Europe, and I think soon they will be available on exchanges in the United States. ”
Andrew was speechless, and he had to admit that if these options were to circulate freely, it would be a heavy blow to investor confidence in the Japanese market.
For no other reason, a large part of the prosperity of the Japanese market is due to the hot money from the international market, and these greedy capitals are always the first to find good profits, and they are always the first to leave the market that is about to break out in crisis with a lot of profits.
When the U.S. investment bank became a member of the Japan Exchange, the channel for foreign capital was opened, and a steady stream of speculative funds poured into the Japanese market.
Now they're going to backhand short.
The poor Japanese are also kept in the dark that Japan's stock market is a real boom and that they will replace the United States to rule the shijie economy for the next decade.
"Give the order!" Seeing that Andrew didn't speak, Zhong Shi ordered lightly.
In fact, Zhong Shi's rhetoric is very far-fetched, but Andrew, who knows the power of investment banking, has been successfully deceived, not only him, but even Liao Chengde and Zhongyi, who have been pretending to be irrelevant to themselves, were also scared.
International investment banks are still just pawns, behind which is actually a contest between countries and countries, Japan is politically unable to compete with the United States because of its congenital shortcomings, and they are also very worried about this bubble internally, so they also acquiesce to this approach to a certain extent.
The combination of various factors has caused the Japanese stock market to turn around.
In eight or nine years, there was not much turbulence in a trading day, during which it once rushed to 38,957 points, but in the end the Nikkei index rose slightly by 38 points to close at 38,915 points.
What no one realizes is that today's highest point will be the highest point that the Nikkei can reach in the next 20 years! After this day, the Nikkei index will take a sharp turn, turning all the way, and even falling below 10,000 points at one point.
What made Zhong Shi get his wish was that his funds successfully established a short order of 8,000 lots, and the average position price was at the position of 40,500 per lot (40,500 * 500/150 * 8,000 / 10 = 108 million US dollars, and the margin was calculated as one percent), spending more than 100 million US dollars, and the remaining tens of millions of US dollars were used as reserve margin.
This is still due to the performance of the Japanese market, for such a short order, the bulls almost did not hesitate to take it.
In Japan, while everyone is feeling regret, they are also full of hope for the new year, and they all hope that in the coming year, the Nikkei index will be able to rush to the 40,000-point mark as soon as possible, without realizing that the crisis is already around them.
Jim and his team were finally able to breathe a sigh of relief that they would finally be able to lose money on this day, in fact, losing money every day was like putting them in a frying pan and making them feel uncomfortable, even though the money was not their own.
The next trading day will be on Thursday, January 4, '90, and they have a full five days to relax. Everyone didn't want to stay in this hellish place anymore, and almost as soon as Christmas came, they packed their things and prepared to rush to Tokyo to fly out of the country on the fastest passenger plane.
Even Jim and Maxim were no exception.
On this day, several large U.S. investment banks announced that they would begin issuing put options on the Nikkei stock average (OTC) in January next year.
The over-the-counter market is a general term for a market that is different from traditional exchanges, where there is no need for trading seats, and the buyers and sellers of securities negotiate and trade in person (electronically, by telephone). It does not have a fixed, centralized trading venue, does not adopt a brokerage system, has a wide variety of transactions, and the management is much looser than the exchange, so it occupies a relatively large advantage in the transaction amount.
It is precisely because of this that the major international investment banks have issued Nikkei put options on the OTC, of course, this time the opponents of the options will definitely not be themselves, but those bulls who are full of confidence in the Japanese market.
Such a news was buried in the joy of the arrival of the New Year, but it did not escape the eyes of Zhong Shi's attention.
"Look, as I said, now it's on!" Looking at the flashing images on the TV screen, Zhong Shi said to Andrew proudly.
They were watching NBC's CNBC channel, which was still called a consumer news and business channel at the time, rather than a shorthand for CNBC, and such an influential TV channel was scrolling around the world all the time, and even the exchange had to fill the screen so that traders could receive new information at any time.
"That's really ......"
Andrew twisted his head for a moment and gave Bell Stone a thumbs up. This time he was really convinced, and for judging the situation, Zhong Shi seemed to have an unusually good sense of smell, which Andrew regarded as a talent.
At this time, Jim and Maxim, who were waiting for the flight at the Japanese international airport, also saw this message, and in the noisy waiting hall, two tall Westerners, staring at the TV screen in a daze, suddenly let out a strange scream.
"I see, I see!"
"Yes! Yes! It turns out that the main battlefield is not here! ”
The two white men hugged each other in full view of everyone, screaming so wildly that even tears were about to flow from their eyes.
"They can't be gay!"
A diminutive middle-aged Japanese man passed by them, muttered something in a low voice, and sped away with his suitcase. This person is Kaoru Iwamoto, who returned from Singapore.
Two people who beat you to death on the Singapore Exchange just passed by.
(The protagonist has already appeared head-on, and the Christmas battle part has indeed been written at a considerable length, with a relatively large amount of professional content.) As for the fact that the protagonist has not appeared positively recently, everyone has to wait a little anxiously, which the author will pay attention to in the future, and must better maintain a balance between professional content and the protagonist's role, so that the protagonist can participate in it. In addition, I would like to note that in the next seven days, the second volume of this book will be completed, I hope you will continue to support and pay more attention, thank you very much! )