Naturally, the sharp rise in the yield of Ireland's 10-year government bonds could not hide from the eyes of the media, and soon all kinds of speculation were overwhelming the next day.

The first to attack was the Wall Street Journal, the largest financial newspaper in the United States, which first reported in large sections what happened in the Irish government bond market, and then explained the facts, and then turned to the change and attributed the change to the Irish government's bailout of the Irish banking system at all costs.

"It is estimated that around 35 billion euros of bailout funds may be needed to solve the problem of bad debts in the Irish banking system once and for all, but only if the Irish government can come up with such a lot of money and not cause panic in the market. In the current situation, it is very difficult to do so. Analysts believe that the Irish government's fiscal deficit is already close to an astronomical figure, and if the rating agencies downgrade their credit rating at this time, then the crisis could erupt at any time! So they wrote.

According to Bloomberg, "Ireland's two largest banks, Bank of Ireland and Union Bank of Ireland, have been bailed out by several rounds of government bailouts following the takeover of the National Building Society of Ireland by the Irish government. To the bewilderment and bewilderment of the market, the Irish government did not choose to merge and reorganize the banks, but directly chose to bail them out, which is clearly contrary to the principles of the free market. Taking taxpayers' money to bail out large financial institutions, not to mention what kind of public opinion this will lead to, is not a move to maximize resources. ”

The Financial Times of the United Kingdom directly sang the opposite tone with two peers, saying directly: "Doubts about Ireland's political and fiscal risks are exaggerated, and Ireland's economic recovery is predicted to be faster than other second-tier European countries...... While there may be more positive news for Ireland's banking sector in the future, the market's concerns about the country's economic reforms are not so serious due to the country's high flexibility in the private sector. With continued FDI inflows and a labor market regaining competitiveness, the country's economy is likely to recover faster than other eurozone countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece. ”

It is very rare for the media on both sides to have very different views, almost-for-tat, but not surprising in the current situation. Because both sides represent their respective positions.

However, for the market, even if the European media says more encouragement, it still can't dispel the doubts in their minds, because in September, the Irish government announced that this year's fiscal deficit may account for 32% of the entire GDP, while the EU's internal regulations are that the fiscal deficit of member states is less than 3% of GDP, compared to this regulation, the Irish government is now ten times the size of this regulation, which is difficult to dispel the doubts in the minds of investors in any case.

The panic continues, and so does the sell-off.

On this day, although European consortiums also bought Irish government bonds again. However, the yield remained at 7%, and the scale of selling still prevailed. The CDS of the Irish domestic banking sector directly exceeded 500 basis points on this day, indicating that the market is still worried about the Irish banking sector.

On the third day, this sentiment finally spread to other countries.

Portugal's 10-year government bond market has also seen volatility, with some institutions trying to sell their positions, which has led to a significant increase in Portuguese government bonds. A similar situation has been encountered with the national debt of Greece and Spain.

At the same time, there are rumours circulating in the market that certain foreign banks and institutions are secretly reducing their holdings of Spanish, Irish, Portuguese and Greek government bonds. They started reducing their holdings in the second quarter. Foreign holdings of Portuguese and Irish bonds had fallen by 20% at the end of June.

As soon as this news came out, it naturally caused concern in the market.

No doubt. Bond giants such as Pacific Investment Management are rumored to be representatives of banks or institutions outside Europe. Their unscrupulous dumping of their positions in the market undoubtedly verifies the truth of this claim.

Is it true that other banks or institutions other than their domestic institutions are not optimistic about the bonds of these eurozone periphery countries? This is a question on the mind of every bond trader, and unfortunately there is no answer so far.

On the fourth day, Ireland's 10-year government bond yield remained at 7.5%. This borrowing pressure has made it impossible for the Irish government to sit still. That evening, Renehan was forced to announce ahead of schedule a budget cut that was scheduled to be announced in the middle of the month.

The Irish government began to take the initiative to calm the mood of the market, and they made a move.

In this package, the Irish government announced an increase in savings or tax revenues of about 6 billion euros next year, or about 3.6% of GDP. At the same time, fiscal spending will be cut by 9 billion euros over the next three years. The goal is to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3% of EU standards by 2014.

At the same time as the plan, the Irish government will announce its 2011 budget on the 7th of next month.

It is clear that this statement was meant to appease investors. But soon some people refuted it-for-tat according to this plan.

Goodman's analysts were almost immediately vocal about Rannihán's statement, and one macro analyst, who asked not to be named, told Bloomberg that whether the fiscal cuts convince investors that the Irish government is capable of dealing with the current fiscal woes will be key to determining whether they ultimately turn to the IMF or the European Union. The macro analyst said that although the Irish government currently has about 20 billion euros in cash reserves, this figure guarantees that they will not need to issue new bonds to raise funds at least before the end of the year, on top of a new round of bank bailouts. But these amounts are very limited, and with some of Ireland's debt due by mid-2011, the financial pressure could crush them by then, if not across Ireland now. So they won't be able to raise new money from the international market until then, and they will still be rescued.

At the same time, analysts in Europe said Greece, Portugal and Ireland are likely to avoid defaulting on their sovereign debt, as all three countries have strong local investment bases, and institutions such as local banks and pension funds will buy government bonds even in times of tension.

Once again, the two sides quarreled over differences of opinion. But what most people didn't expect was this. This statement, made on the initiative of the Irish government, although intended to appease investors, caused reverse volatility in the foreign exchange market.

In the past few days, the euro has not had any problems, and even accumulated a cumulative increase of about 2% in four trading days, forming a considerable upward momentum. But as soon as the Irish government's statement was issued. It immediately made the market aware of the real possibility of a debt default by the Irish government.

This has nothing to do with fundamentals, it's a psychological game, because even a certain period of time for the growth of Treasury yields doesn't mean anything, but at this time the Irish government jumped out, at least proving that they are weak-minded.

The euro's rally disappeared in an instant, falling 0.0200 on the same day, or 1.41%.

The euro's move has added to some of the fears about Ireland once it announced it was accepting aid. So whether several other countries in the same situation, such as Portugal and Spain, will follow in their footsteps has become the focus of market attention.

Under this pressure, the euro was completely reversed, and on November 8 it continued to fall by 1.23%.

On this very day, the European Union could not sit still. European Commission Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Oli? Rennes began a two-day visit to Ireland on the 8th. According to the plan, the focus of Rennes' trip was to examine the Irish government's budget cuts announced last week.

As for the purpose of Commissioner Rennes' visit, the prevailing view in the market is that the Irish government may take advantage of the opportunity. Lobbying the EU itself for the ability to restore order to the country's finances and thus avoid being bailed out. Because of the conditions attached to the bailout. will drastically change their existing policies. Under these circumstances, the Irish government is reluctant to be bailed out.

At the same time, the market also said that the main purpose of Commissioner Rennes's trip this time was to stand for Ireland. However, the effect and significance of this platform depends on the reaction of the market.

"I didn't expect things to get out of control like this!"

On the plane to Seoul, Jiangshan did not forget to observe the market. "Ireland's 10-year government bond has fallen below 8%, and it is likely to fall below 9% in these two days, which is a staggering magnitude. If they continue at this rate, they will soon find it difficult to withstand the enormous pressure of refinancing. ”

Over the course of a week, a huge storm was brewing in the market from the Pacific Investment Management's sell-off of Irish government bonds. The storm not only swept the Irish bond market, but also swept the rising euro into the fold.

The market is changing rapidly.

"Because of the lessons from the past, everyone is very worried and afraid, wait and see, no matter who stands up now, the final result is to make the market more worried!"

Zhong Shi touched his chin, and was also a little surprised in his heart, the current situation was not created by their group, and the development of the facts was completely beyond their expectations, I have to say that after the fright in May, the market has become a frightened bird.

"Yes!"

Jiang Shan echoed, "Fortunately, our positions have all been thrown out, and according to today's momentum, we have earned at least 200 million profits, which is still the current situation." ”

"Quiet!"

After thinking about it, Zhong Shi touched the phone and dialed a number, "Mr. Brian, I'm Zhong Shi." ”

"Have you arrived in Seoul?"

A deep voice then sounded, "I have confirmed with the British side that the Prime Minister of Ireland will not be present at that time, but one of his high-ranking officials will appear at the G20 venue." Of course, he will not appear in an official capacity, but he will be involved in the meeting between the president and the British prime minister. ”

The G20 meeting will be held in Seoul, South Korea, and will be attended by the heads of state of world powers such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and China to discuss the current world situation.

"I see!"

Zhong Shi replied noncommittally, and after thinking for a moment, he asked, "Aren't there any other opinions from the parties on the alternative?" ”

In order to persuade Ireland to make up its mind to secede from the eurozone, the United States has formulated a plan to save Ireland by a consortium involving Citigroup, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Stanley, Goodman and many other large American conglomerates, as well as Bellstone's small group.

"It will be raised in the form of bond offerings, and the aid will be provided in three tranches, and the first tranche is expected to be around $50 billion. And once Ireland declares its independence from the eurozone, their currency will be replaced by the pound sterling during the transition period, and British consortiums will naturally join in the process. ”

Andrew. Brian methodically said, "As for the American consortium, I've convinced them. The rest of the work will be handed over to you, and I am confident that with your abilities, raising $15 billion in the first phase will not be a problem. ”

"What about the terms that will be offered to Ireland?"

Counting on my fingers, this number is indeed not much. Especially with the addition of a later British consortium, the share of expenditure to be incurred may be smaller. Zhong Shi felt confident in his heart, and then asked, "After all, leaving the eurozone will make Ireland's foreign trade bear the risk of the exchange rate, and if there is no significant concession, they may not agree." ”

"You don't have to worry about this!"

Andrew. Brian confidently said, "The rescue plan we have developed is much better than the EU or the IMF's plan." I'll discuss it with the Irish side personally, so you don't need to know! ”

"What is the attitude of the British side?"

Zhong Shi continued, "Aren't they worried about the turmoil in the eurozone as a result of Ireland's secession from the eurozone, which will affect the UK itself?" ”

"This ......"

Andrew. Brian seemed embarrassed, and muttered for a long time before confessing to Bell Stone, "According to the rules, I must keep these things secret. But what I can tell you is that the president will give them a little promise, a little promise to protect them. ”

"Also, you have done a great job in Ireland and have given us the initiative! The president appreciates your work very much, and maybe he will meet you at that time, so you need to be prepared. ”

"I see!"

Zhong Shi nodded silently, the corners of his mouth twitched slightly, and then hung up the phone. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you book friend ReaderSlip, Starry Moonlight, It wasn't me last night, and the four-eyed prodigal son voted for the monthly pass! Thank you for the tip! Yesterday I was in a bad spirit, and the number of words I wrote was a little less, so let's make up for it by writing more today. How has this situation changed now, the future is worrying, and the prosperity of the past is really gone...... So I sincerely hope that all book friends can continue to actively vote for this book, and don't forget to vote for more recommendations, I hope that the situation of this book will improve as soon as possible, thank you~