Chapter 305: Attack on Ireland (2)

As the head of a large conglomerate, it goes without saying that Ou Zhihua has a close relationship with the top level of the British government. After the German chancellor ordered an investigation into vulture funds among top officials in various countries, the British government issued a similar order to the country's big conglomerates, including HSBC.

HSBC has been trying to convince the British top brass because of UK taxes and capital, so it knows that this matter may be unethical, and it has fully cooperated. It's just that Ou Zhihua's hard work was forced to look at him by the other party, which made him quite embarrassed and helpless.

In the course of this delicate conversation, the Tianyu Fund was lucky to escape.

What Ou Zhihua and the mysterious senior government official didn't know was that just a few days later, Zhong Shi borrowed a lot of Irish government bonds through several major European banks, making the Tianyu Fund accumulate a position of as much as 6 billion euros in a week.

At first glance, this is not a lot of figures, but considering that the Irish government's public debt accounts for about 80% of GDP, and Ireland's GDP is about $250 billion, the bond position accumulated by the Tianyu Fund reaches 0.5% of the total public debt of the entire Ireland, which is quite staggering.

Bell Stone's accomplices also acted quickly, borrowing Irish government bonds through their own channels, so that the position held by the entire team quickly reached 2.5%, which can already affect the trend of Irish government bonds in the market to a certain extent.

Most importantly, along with borrowing government bonds, they also intervened in Ireland's banking bond market, borrowing more than $15 billion in bonds.

Because the Irish government has invested in Ireland's banking sector several times before, the holders of these bonds are not afraid of defaulting on these bonds, and after paying a slightly higher price than the market, they can successfully borrow what they want.

These actions have been accompanied by a quiet move to absorb Irish sovereign bonds and banking debt CDS. Meantime. The liquidation of long positions in the euro and the sale of the euro are also well underway.

Finally, a month later, on November 1, the short-selling operation against Ireland finally began.

First, they began to quietly sell Irish government bonds on the market. The current yield on 10-year Irish government bonds is around 6.5%, which is a high figure but nothing given the high yields on eurozone bonds across the eurozone. Because Germany's 10-year government bond yield has also reached a staggering 6.2%.

However, as soon as Tianyu Fund and other institutions made a move, they directly sold Irish government bonds in the market. Because it is impossible for one institution to make a splash, Bridgewater, Tianyu, Paulson and Pacific Investment Management worked together to sell Irish government bonds everywhere in the market.

The first few institutions are just that, after all, they are not regular visitors to the bond market. But the "debt king" Bill. As soon as Gross made a move, he immediately impressed the market.

"Pacific Investment Management is peddling Irish government bonds!"

"Gross is not optimistic about Ireland anymore!"

"Oh my God, what the hell is going on in Ireland?"

……

Similar rumors immediately circulated in the bond market, and traders flocked around. Want to find out what Pacific Investment Management knows.

Generally speaking, every action of Pacific Investment Management is very secretive, because the tree is very popular. But this time, Gross did not have the slightest intention of concealing it, and directly exposed his intentions to the market, which immediately made the market smell bad.

After much scrutiny, traders finally settled on two pieces of news, the first was the decline in GDP growth announced by the Irish government at the end of September, and the second was the news that the Irish government would continue to bail out the country's banking system in early October.

Although both of these messages are in the past. But traders quickly understood that the amount of money the Irish government needed to bail out the banking system could be extraordinarily large this time. So much so that even Pacific Investment Management is no longer optimistic about the Irish government.

As this conclusion spread rapidly, confidence in Ireland began to waver, and yields on 10-year Irish government bonds began to climb with it.

6.6%, 6.7%, 6.8%, 6.9%, in just a few hours, the yield on the 10-year Irish government bond climbed 30 basis points.

The market is a bit flustered because there is no real fundamentals and news to back it up. This abrupt panic left the market puzzled and scared.

Just when the yield was approaching 7%, European consortia began to appear, and although they did not offer a lot of money, many banks quoted together. It still curbed the panic in the market to a certain extent. They quickly made the market realize that maybe they were mistaken.

In fact, professional traders are not much different from ordinary people, and there are many personality shortcomings, and the biggest difference is probably the amount of funds on hand. Therefore, after the European consortium made a move, their confidence to continue selling was not so resolute.

In a word, there is still no accurate information.

Soon, however, news of the continued sell-off of Pacific Investment Management continued to appear in the market, and this time not only Pacific Investment Management, but also several major U.S. investment banks joined the ranks of selling Irish government bonds.

This time, in addition to the sell-off of Irish government bonds, the bonds of the Irish banking sector also appeared in the sell-off, which confirmed Gross's speculation that he was not optimistic about the Irish banking market.

Once again, the bears overwhelmed the bulls, and the selling frenzy continued.

"Ireland may need international assistance!"

"The European debt crisis could flare up again!"

"Next up is Portugal!"

……

All sorts of unfounded rumors began to circulate in the market. Although these rumours have not been verified, they are hard facts in the minds of traders, and the 10-year Irish government bond yield finally broke through 7% before the close to close at 7.01%, making it one of the most volatile sovereigns in the market on the day.

"How's the deal going?"

After the closing, Zhong Shi asked Jiang Shan, "What about the CDS of the Union Bank of Ireland?" ”

The strategy of selling Ireland's sovereign debt and its banks' bonds on the one hand, and buying their CDS on the other, is basically the same direction.

"A third of it was sold."

Jiang Shan wiped the sweat from his forehead, gasped heavily, and after a while to stabilize his mood, he replied respectfully, "The CDS spread of the 10-year treasury bond is approaching 500 basis points, and it is not impossible to break through 500 tomorrow as long as you work hard." ”

The concept of the so-called CDS spread, which is the CDS price of the 10-year Irish government bonds. The 500 basis points mentioned by Jiangshan is 5%. Assuming that X-Spatial has 10 million euros of 10 million Irish government bonds on hand, the cost of protecting these bonds from default is 500,000 euros, which is the CDS price of the underlying 10 million euros of Irish government bonds.

The rise or fall of this number represents the market's sentiment about whether the target will default.

"Well done!"

Zhong Shi patted Jiang Shan on the shoulder, "According to the established strategy, the yield of the 10-year Irish government bond has been maintained above 7%, so that the market atmosphere will become more and more serious." ”

"But according to the extent of today's sell-off, we only have three days at most, and then we will run out of ammunition!"

Jiang Shan was a little worried, in his opinion, today's force was a little too strong, which reduced the chips in hand a lot, in this case, if there is no major news released in a few days, the sniping plan of the Tianyu Fund will soon come to an end.

"You're in a hurry?"

Zhong Shi shook his head and said to Jiang Shan with a smile, "Who do you think will be in a hurry in the current situation?" ”

"It's not us...... Wrong! ”

Jiang Shan blurted out, but seeing Zhong Shi's smiling expression, an answer suddenly jumped out of his mind, "It's the Irish government." If they also want to make up for the losses of the banking sector by issuing bonds, then they will have to weigh whether they will be able to repay these debts in the future by issuing bonds in this case. ”

"Maybe they won't even be able to repay the interest, if their economic growth is still so sluggish."

He excitedly said, "That way, they must have done something!" ”

"So what do you think they'll do?"

Zhong Shi was quite satisfied with Jiang Shan's enlightenment, but so far it was still not the end of the conversation, and he continued to guide the other party to think.

"Make a statement that comforts the market, maybe make something clear!"

Jiang Shan said without thinking, "It may be able to appease the market to a certain extent, but after all, far water can't save the near fire." After all, the deterioration of fundamentals can't be calmed down in a few words, is it, Zhong Sheng? ”

"You're right!"

Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, "Whatever the Irish government says, the market will only interpret it as they can't sit still in the current situation, and speculation about the Irish government in this case will only further disadvantage them, so whatever they do, it's wrong." ”

"So what should they do?"

Jiang Shan thought about it for a while, his face gradually became solemn, what Zhong Shi said was very reasonable, so that he had no possibility to refute, the fact is indeed very probable as Zhong Shi said.

"It depends on how much money they have in their treasury!"

Zhong Shi let out a long sigh and said in a gloomy tone, "From the beginning, they have emptied all their family funds by indiscriminately helping the banking industry for the sake of egalitarianism. In this case, no matter what they do, they will not be able to restore the confidence of the market. I'm afraid that there is only one way for them to receive assistance! ”

"Our chance is coming soon!"

He finally added. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you to the book friend Bookworm 18622, cpower, Brother Zhao, and Z Jia for the monthly ticket! Thank you for the tips from book friends who passed by Karamay and Sin 13! Recently, I've been feeling very mentally exhausted.,I don't even know what to say if I want to ask for a vote.,I hope you can support more for the sake of the author's code word.,If you don't have a ticket, you really can't even maintain the status quo......