Chapter 319: Weak Hedge Funds
In fact, Paulson made the most money in gold futures, because in anticipation of the European crisis, he bet most of his net worth on gold futures, and the current price of gold futures has approached the level of $1,500 per ounce, making his fund focused on gold and real estate earn more than 50% of the income, and the expected return will reach more than $10 billion.
Combined with bets on the European debt crisis, Paulson should be close to $20 billion this year. Even by the most conservative estimates, at a quarter of the share, his personal income for the year should be around $5 billion.
This is the second time since 2007 that Paulson has recorded a jaw-dropping record.
This was also verified in a survey after the year. According to an analysis of the hedge fund industry, Paulson Fund once again recorded astronomical returns this year, and he himself became the chief manager of the hedge fund because of the benefits of investing in gold.
Because Tianyu Fund does not accept outside investors and is completely closed, the outside world knows nothing about it, which put Paulson in the first place. But in the eyes of industry insiders, Paulson, who is Zhongshi's junior follower, can earn this number, and the number that Zhongshi can earn is even more amazing.
"Hey, just a little bit!"
Paulson was smiling, and he just wanted to boast a few words, but when he saw Zhong Shi's smiling expression, he quickly put away the little smugness in his heart, and said with a little embarrassment, "Sir, I have to thank you for all this!" ”
"Yes!"
Dario chimed in, "It's all your work. Luckily, we've made a lot of money with you. ”
While the income is not as exaggerated as Paulson's, Dario has also carried tens of billions of dollars in earnings. Based on the total size of his fund and the extent of his returns, he did not necessarily earn less from excess returns and management fees than Paulson this year.
Follow in the footsteps of these two. Several other people also expressed their gratitude around Zhong Shi.
"What are we going to do next?"
After some hype, Paulson changed his tone and continued the topic earlier, "What are we going to do next, you know, I can't wait now!" ”
After making such a big profit, everyone is looking forward to the next goal. Judging by the current international situation. Portugal will soon be the next to be besieged by international capital, despite the fact that they have just passed the 2011 budget.
"I'm going to take a break!"
To everyone's surprise, Zhong Shi didn't intend to make a move immediately, just lightly left a sentence and didn't explain anything, "If you plan to attack Portugal, then you do it." But sorry, I'm not involved this time! ”
"What?"
Everyone couldn't hide their surprise, and Paulson asked in surprise. "Sir, is something wrong? You must know that the situation is very good now, and it would be a pity if we stopped now. ”
"yes!"
Steady as Dai Lio, he can't understand Zhong Shi's decision, "Before May next year, Portugal will face the problem of a large number of national debt maturing, and if they don't choose to apply for a bailout, there may be a large-scale default." Other than that. If they choose to come to the rescue before then, the euro will face another downward momentum. This is almost visibly visible. ”
"I don't understand, I don't understand!"
He shook his head in disappointment, a puzzled look on his face.
"I think I understand what Mr. Chung thinks!"
Jim. Chanos silently put down his glass and said to the crowd, "Gentlemen, do you remember what happened in '07 and '08? ”
"You're talking about the subprime mortgage crisis?"
Griffin's response was quick. After just a little thought, he blurted out, "From April '07 to October '08, when Stanley Company accepted a stake in Japan, it can be said that the subprime mortgage crisis lasted for nearly two years. "During this period, the real estate market in the United States was close to collapsing, and countless large institutions were involved in bankruptcy. The economy that has affected the entire world is now struggling. ”
"But Jim, what does this stuff have to do with what we're talking about now?"
Not only Griffin, but the others were also confused.
"Maybe you don't know, but the story of a friend of mine speaks for itself!"
Jim. Chanos glanced at everyone with a solemn face, and said slowly, "He runs a small hedge fund with assets of about $1 billion. In '06, he realized that the real estate craze was not sustainable. After sensing the problems in the market, he bought a total of $1.2 billion worth of CDS from Goodman, UBS and JP Morgan to bet on the real estate market, and guess what happened in the end? ”
"Of course I've made a lot of money!"
Ackerman said disdainfully, "It's all happening, is there anything else to say?" Who here doesn't know that then the real estate market crashed, the price of CDOs plummeted, and the price of CDS skyrocketed. Don't forget, it was during that crisis that Mr. Paulson made a name for himself. ”
"No, no, no!"
Jim. Chanos shook his head repeatedly, "That's not what I'm talking about. Naturally, that friend of mine ended up making more than 200% of the profit. But in the process of the whole thing, didn't you find something strange? ”
"I see what you're talking about!"
As the biggest winner at the time, Paulson saw almost every reaction in the market, and blurted out that "after the collapse of New Century Financial Group, the CDO price of the entire market remained unchanged, and the rating remained high." This phenomenon is very abnormal. In hindsight, Wall Street's investment banks and rating agencies colluded to delay the crisis. During this time, they frantically sold their CDOs and bought CDS at high prices, trying to get out of the way. But unfortunately, in the end, none of their actions saved them. ”
"Is that so, Jim?"
Paulson tells a strange story that no one thought of at the time. However, judging from what they are doing today, it is similar to what the big institutions did at that time, so everyone is not too surprised.
"Not quite right!"
Jim. Chanos still denied it. "We all know this very well, and it's nothing new. The problem came from the end of the subprime mortgage crisis, John, you must have been very impressed, it was the congressional hearings. ”
"That's what you're talking about?"
Paulson's face suddenly sank, and he didn't speak for a long time.
"Yes!"
See Paulson's reaction. Jim. Chanos understood that the other party knew what he wanted to say, and immediately nodded slightly towards Paulson, and continued, "For a while, the public opinion of the whole society was accusing us. Oh, it's not us, it's the entire hedge fund industry. They believe that it was we who induced and triggered the whole crisis. But God, are those CDSs and CDOs designed by us and peddled everywhere? ”
"And that's not all!"
Speaking of this, Chanos's emotions suddenly became agitated. "Gentlemen, do you know how my friend was treated? The New York prosecutor's office investigated them for eight months and finally determined that they had done nothing out of the ordinary before they stopped. I think John understands this very well. ”
"That friend of mine lives on the verge of fear every day, and it can be said that he can't sleep well. The danger of being accused hung over his head at such a time that he was later disheartened and ended the fund directly! ”
Chanos said indignantly. "Damn, the whole country is putting the blame on us. They know exactly who is responsible for the whole crisis. It's like when I shorted Enron in 01, it was obvious that the other party was covering up his financial problems, and he dared to say that he wanted to confront me in court. God, these madmen have no morality at all! ”
"You're right, I've been in a similar situation before!"
His complaint immediately silenced the whole scene, and everyone present had encountered similar experiences to a greater or lesser extent. Especially when they are singing high-pitched. The other party often does not admit it at all, and uses various threats to prevent short selling. Griffin said even more with apprehension, "When I was shorting the Kaminari Brothers, I openly questioned their accounting methods, which caused a great deal of repercussions at the time. At one point, their CFO wouldn't even answer my calls. ”
Several of them are financial masters, and they don't hide their intentions at all when they are short. But the thing is very clear, as Soros said, it was the egg that broke first, which is why it attracted flies (hedge funds). No matter how you calculate it, this account should not be counted on the head of a hedge fund.
"You're right!"
Zhong Shi, who had not spoken all this time, finally spoke, "Because this time in the affairs of Ireland, the things I planned will inevitably attract the attention of Europe." So for some time to come, I'll have to disappear for a while, or their revenge will come soon. ”
"They never wonder what the root of the problem is. Rather, it is considering that if something goes wrong, then the person who pokes the problem is the culprit and should bear the maximum responsibility. It's incomprehensible, but it's really happening to us. ”
"The world is so unfair!"
In the end, Zhong Shi couldn't help but sigh and concluded helplessly, "To some extent, although hedge funds are at the top of the financial chain, they are indeed the most vulnerable and vulnerable link!" ”
"Is there nothing we can do?"
Zhong Shi's words made everyone feel frustrated, and the original festive atmosphere was swept away. Several people silently put down the champagne in their hands, drooped their heads and stopped talking.
"It's like now we're doing things for the U.S. government, but I'm not sure if we're going to be pushed out as scapegoats if they don't need to!"
Seeing everyone's reaction, Zhong Shi hit the railway while it was hot, "I'm always worried about that day, but so far I've been too involved, so I can only give up some opportunities to make money and slowly quit." Although I am very unwilling, I do not want my personal safety to be threatened, especially in the game between countries. ”
"What can we do to improve our situation?"
Paulson anxiously asked, "At least let the government play against us, instead of using us as tools!" ”
Paulson has appeared before Congress twice, one on the subprime mortgage crisis and the other on Bear Stearns' short selling. While both hearings were frightening, the government's targeting of hedge funds to reassure the public sent chills to him.
"I haven't figured it out yet!"
Zhong Shi spread his hands and said helplessly, "I need time to plan all this, this action not only has to raise our weight, but also does not make the government angry." It's hard to get a balance out there. But what I'm sure of is that at some point in the future, we're going to do it! ”
"I'm joining!"
"I'm joining too!"
……
After hearing Zhong Shi's words, several people's blood surged into their heads for a while, and they stretched out their hands one after another, deciding to join this plan. (To be continued.) )
PS: Thank you for the depravity of the death of the book friend, 8254814, and he entered her heartbreak and my heart to vote for a monthly ticket! The weekend has passed, but unfortunately the situation has not eased...... So I hope you vote a lot, and the monthly ticket and recommendation vote will be powerful, thank you very much~