On Monday, November 22, the news that Ireland had officially applied to the European Union finally confirmed the market's long-standing fears.

According to publicly disclosed information, Ireland and the European Union reached an agreement on the evening of the 21st, and the Irish government began to enter the application process, hoping to obtain loans with a total amount of up to 90 billion euros.

This news swept away the gloom facing Europe, which caused a very positive reaction in the market, among which the capital markets of major countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, and France rebounded, and the exchange rate of the euro also rebounded, once rushing to a new high of 1.3785.

Ireland's government bond yields also fell sharply, from 7% to 6% within an hour of the open, a drop of as much as 100 basis points. At the same time, bond yields in the Irish banking sector have fallen sharply, while the prices of these banks and Irish sovereign CDs have fallen.

"What do we do now?"

The Irish government's response was very fast, to the surprise of Zhong Shi and others, and there was not much time left for them this time. Several bigwigs couldn't wait to go online for urgent negotiations during the trading time, and Paulson asked anxiously.

"Relax, now is the time when the positive is the strongest, we just need to wait a little now, the time for the irrationality of the market will soon pass!"

Zhong Shi was very calm at this time, and said lightly in the face of the K-line chart that was rushing up quickly, "Now they think it's the right time, but when they calm down, they will find that the matter is far from being resolved." ”

"Is it the follow-up to the euro?"

Compared to the frizzy Paulson, Derio is quite calm, "Are you saying that after a brief rally, the market will realize that the situation in Europe has not really eased?" ”

"Not bad!"

Zhong Shi's calm voice sounded, "If I'm right. Now there are agencies that want to release news! ”

As soon as he finished speaking, a message popped up on the screen in front of several people, and Goodman, which had turned the market upside down on Sunday, issued another statement.

In the statement, Goodman began by saying that Ireland was right to accept the European bailout, albeit at the cost of some sovereignty, but at least stabilized the current domestic economic situation. At the same time, it also maintains a good relationship with international investors.

But Goodman also said it expects Ireland to need €95 billion after the talks. The money is huge, so large that it restricts the EU's bailouts to Portugal or Spain after the events in Ireland are over. And if this ability is lost, Portugal or Spain will definitely be attacked by speculators in the short term.

This news poured cold water on the hot market, and soon the market's enthusiasm for the euro was ruthlessly suppressed, and the euro began to go down again.

"All this is your arrangement?"

Ten minutes later, the euro had swallowed up all of its gains at the opening. And there is a continuing downward momentum, which makes everyone realize Bell Stone's foresight, and Paulson asks with admiration.

"Yes, that's exactly what I arranged!"

Zhong Shi said with a blank face, "I have already communicated with the people at Goodman when I expected that Ireland might be rescued, and the manuscript is still written by me. ”

"So you're still here to lay the groundwork!"

Dario nodded silently, "This news is enough to calm the market down." Negotiations between Ireland and Europe are expected to continue for about a week or so. Do we just wait for the market to change during this time, or do we start closing positions? ”

At least so far. The euro's rally has been curbed, but it is questionable how long this effect will last, and whether Portugal and Spain will actually be attacked by speculators.

At least predictably, for some time the euro will be free of prospects.

"There's no rush. Now the market's confidence in the euro is far from the end! ”

Zhong Shi patted his cheek to wake himself up from the tiredness of day and night, "I still have a second move, this time the target is Portugal!" ”

……

On 22 November, the euro reversed. After the opening of the market, it first rose sharply, but soon turned to the downside again under the combined effect of various news, and the market's worries about the eurozone were not alleviated by Ireland's bailout, but instead raised deeper doubts about the European rescue mechanism. In this case, the euro fell 0.0130 against the dollar throughout the day, and the loss reached 0.98%.

At night in Europe and the United States, an unknown news once again tested the nerves of the market.

The Irish government's announcement during the day that it had not included the corporate tax rate in its negotiations with the EU has given hope to the Portuguese government, which has been optimistic about how the Irish government will deal with the debt crisis. According to sources close to the Portuguese leadership, the Portuguese government is holding a secret meeting to discuss the possibility of Portugal requesting a bailout from Europe after Ireland.

At the same time, the anonymous source said that based on the size and situation of the Portuguese economy, the scale of the rescue proposed by the Portuguese government is not expected to be lower than that of the Irish government.

The market's reaction to the news was shock!

Although the market is well aware of the dire economic situation in Portugal and Spain, the Spanish government managed to issue a government bond last week, showing that investors' confidence in Spain has not yet been lost. In Portugal, which is on the same island, the situation is not so rosy.

As a country with a similar level of GDP as Ireland, Portugal's population is far larger than Ireland's, and its per capita GDP is much lower than that of the other party, although the fiscal deficit is only 4%, far from being compared with Ireland's level of more than 30%, but because of the increase in market speculative power, the yield on Ireland's 10-year government bonds has also exceeded the 7% level.

Like Ireland, Portugal will also see the peak of its debt repayment in the middle of next year, before it will have to raise enough money to repay its maturing debts. And now that the market has such high yields on government bonds, it is difficult to convince investors to buy new bonds, and this is the crux of Portugal's problem.

With Ireland's experience in the past, it is only natural for Portugal to apply to the EU again, and to some extent they will enjoy the same preferential treatment as Ireland. These benefits are far better than in Greece. So even though the news is very motivating, it doesn't seem like real news. But the market has its own understanding of this, because it is in line with their logic.

As soon as the foreign exchange market opened on the 23rd, the euro was under tremendous selling pressure, and the transaction price also fell sharply, almost to the point of being out of control. At midday. Rating agency Fitch has also made comments that Portugal's sovereign credit rating may be downgraded in the near future, which has further increased the panic in the market.

Faced with this situation, EU officials stood up in time. Rennes, who declared in an interview that Ireland's current predicament will not lead to Portugal becoming the next country to help.

In the interview, he listed the differences between Ireland and Portugal. He believes Ireland's problem is that the banking sector is in trouble, which is not the case for Portugal. Because economic growth and private debt are at the heart of Portugal's problems. However, as far as he knows, the Portuguese government is actively resolving the contradictions in the country, and it is expected that they will introduce a series of measures to alleviate the current predicament by next year.

This news has to be said to comfort the confidence of some investors, but it does not solve the fundamental problem at all. The creditworthiness of the Portuguese government's bonds remains a problem, as even if the Portuguese government is able to achieve a fiscal reduction plan, will not be able to repay the massive maturing government debt by the middle of next year.

The shouting largely did not have the effect that the Europeans wanted, and the euro continued to fall.

By the end of the day, the euro had lost 0.0216 for the day. The drop reached a staggering 1.59%. Although the decline narrowed at the end of the session, it did not change the general trend of the decline throughout the day.

The next three trading days. The shadow looming over Europe has not gone away, and all kinds of news about the negotiations between the Irish government and the EU are constantly coming, and it is difficult to distinguish between true and false, but basically not too smooth news. As a result, the euro again fell slightly in three trading days, albeit not by a large margin. But by November 29, the euro was already down almost 7% from its peak on November 5.

On November 29, Europe finally reached a negotiation with Ireland, announcing that it would provide up to 85 billion euros of funds to Ireland over the next three years, with a loan interest rate of 6.5%. The first tranche of funding will be available in January next year.

The news did not come as a surprise to the market, but the 85 billion euros exceeded the market's broad expectations, and although 12 billion to 15 billion euros of it came from Ireland's pension reserves, there are still concerns about the European Union, which has made such a large amount of money.

Affected by this news, the euro fell again, falling by 0.0130 on the day, which amounted to 0.98%.

The next day, Fitch officially announced that it had downgraded Portugal's sovereign credit rating to A+++ from AA- previously, with a negative outlook, i.e. it does not rule out the possibility of further declines in the near term.

The news did not surprise the market, but despite this, the euro fell by 0.83, falling directly below the 1.3000 line and finishing the day at 1.2994.

This period of turmoil in Europe finally came to an end on December 1. After more than 10 hours of heated debate, the Portuguese government, which had been blowing the wind to the market for a long time, finally reached an agreement in the early morning of December 1 to cut the fiscal finance, that is, the Portuguese government's "2011 budget", to carry out a new round of fiscal austerity measures.

In this new government agreement, over the next three years, the Portuguese government will cut a total of up to 12 billion euros in fiscal spending, including benefits, salary increases for civil servants, bonuses and other aspects. Despite the fierce nature of the game, the Portuguese government finally brought good news to all parties in the market, thanks to the compromise of all parties.

It seems unlikely that the Portuguese government will be able to turn to Europe for help for at least some time.

Stimulated by this news, the euro rose by 0.92% on the day, and in the next two trading days, the euro rose again by 0.49% and 1.48%, completely ending this wave of euro crisis.

However, for some speculators, they have already emptied their positions before the day comes.

"Gentlemen, let's toast!"

After the whole thing was over, several people got together again, but this time the place chosen was not in the United States, but in Hong Kong.

As the host, Zhong Shi chartered the presidential suite on the top floor of the Four Seasons Hotel to entertain these guys. At this time, they were in a spacious and luxurious private room, and several people were celebrating each other with champagne.

"Mr. Zhong, what's our next goal?"

After taking a sip of champagne, Paulson excitedly asked, "Is it Portugal, when are we going to do it?" ”

"Are you in a hurry?"

Zhong Shi chuckled and teased Paulson, "I should have made a lot of money this year, why am you still not satisfied?" ”

Although no data is yet available, Paulson's fund has made at least more than $1.5 billion in profits in this harvest, and that's just in the past month. Taken together, the Paulson Fund has earned more than $10 billion in revenue. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you to the book friends Demon Dragon War Ghost, lyangyang, and the wall of spring palace wall willow for voting for the monthly ticket! Thank you for the tip! The weekend was really bleak, and the collection dropped a lot...... I really hope that there will be a rebound next week, and I hope that everyone can continue to actively vote for it, and the recommended votes are also very effective, continue to work hard~