Chapter 246: Greece's Relegation (3)
At the same time, Moody's and Fitch have also issued statements announcing that they will downgrade the credit rating of Greek sovereign bonds.
Moody's, for its part, downgraded the long-term senior unsecured bonds of Greece's sovereign bonds from Aa1 to Baa1, just one step away from falling to junk rating. At the same time, Moody's announced that it would not rule out the inclusion of Greek bonds in the re-evaluation list for possible further downgrades.
Fitch downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating from A- to BBB-, just one step away from junk status, with a "negative" outlook, implying the same as Moody's, that is, a further downgrade is not ruled out.
On the rationale, the statements of both sides reached a striking unanimity. That is, the Greek government is facing a huge fiscal deficit, coupled with an unimaginable public debt, which has been accumulating and has no prospect of being reduced.
The three major rating agencies jointly issued a statement to downgrade Greek government bonds, which immediately caused a sensation in the global market!
The first to react to the rating agencies was the foreign exchange market, where the euro fluctuated sharply against the dollar during the day.
Since the Kaminmen brothers declared bankruptcy, the euro, which had weakened against the dollar, began to rise strongly, and even hit a peak of 1.44 dollars per euro at the end of 08. However, after the US Senate and House of Representatives agreed on a massive rescue plan, the euro fell again.
With the fermentation of the financial crisis and the positive attitude of Europe in rescuing large financial institutions, the euro has re-entered an upward channel against the dollar after a period of decline. This rise lasted for nearly a year, jumping from the lowest point of 1.2456 US dollars per euro to 1.5144 US dollars per 1 euro, an increase of 21.58%. But this increase, which began on the day of the joint downgrade of the three major Greek rating agencies, reached its peak.
December 4th. The euro plummeted, falling from 1.506 at the opening to 1.4857 at the close, falling as much as 1.35% throughout the day.
In the following month, the euro continued to plummet, falling below 1% again on December 27, reaching a decline of 1.29%. By December 22, when the eurozone announced that it was considering bailing out Greece, the euro had fallen by a staggering 5.36% against the dollar in just 13 trading days.
A large part of the euro's collapse is not due to the downgrading of Greece's rating, but to speculation about how the main countries of the eurozone will react after Greece's downgrade. It is widely believed that the major eurozone countries will come to Greece's aid. However, the market is not able to agree on how much aid will be and what conditions will be provided.
It is this divergence of expectations. As a result, the euro continued to fall, and it was not until December 22, when the eurozone finance ministers sat down together and began to seriously discuss the plan to aid Greece, that this panic in the market was effectively alleviated.
A similar situation is also seen in the pound, which is also shorted to a certain extent because it is highly correlated with the trade degree of the eurozone.
The slow negotiation mechanism has finally worked, but for the rapidly changing capital markets. It's already too late.
The second to react quickly to Greece's rating was the bond market. Because what is being downgraded is itself a sovereign bond. As a result, the price of Greek government bonds plummeted in the market, and the yield soared from 11% to around 15%, and in just a short period of December, this yield continued to soar, reaching its peak on December 22, which is a staggering 20%.
This number means: The Greek government wants to raise funds from the market, and the 100 euro face value of government bonds, without calculating the coupon interest, can only be sold for 83 euros, and the difference in the price of up to 17 euros in the middle evaporates in vain.
That's the power of a rating agency!
Meanwhile. French and German bunds have seen yields rise to some extent. Because capital is more willing to invest in products with higher credit ratings at this time. Among them, the yield of German government bonds even broke through the benchmark interest rate in the euro area for a time, reflecting investors' optimism about the German economy.
Of course, the impact is not limited to these two, interest rate futures, stock markets, stock index futures and other markets in the euro area countries have fallen to varying degrees. Compared to the above two areas, their impact is relatively limited.
"Cheers!"
In the villa on Long Island, a group of people are cheering and celebrating with champagne.
Paulson's home, in the affluent neighborhood of Long Island, New York, cost him $3.4 million on the 20-acre mansion. 16 acres of it is a nature reserve, and the entire villa covers an area of nearly 10,000 square meters, with 5 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms. The rooms are all made of cherry wood and granite, which is low-key, calm, luxurious, quiet and has excellent privacy.
It's not the top mansion in the affluent neighborhood of Long Island, and certainly not Paulson's permanent home. He is currently looking for a new place to live, which can only be regarded as a temporary place for him.
Five or six people sat around the fireplace, and the blazing fire made their bodies warm, and there was no feeling of cold at all. The coffee table in front of them was filled with a variety of dishes, desserts and drinks, and the group was laughing happily while enjoying the joyous Christmas dinner.
"I made $300 million in pounds!"
Ackerman stretched out three fingers and proudly boasted, "Before the rating agency launched, I had already established enough short positions in the pound and long in the dollar, using three times the leverage, and as a result, in ten days, the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar fell by a full 4%, and I made a profit of more than 20% by adding leverage." Tsk, this kind of performance is not inferior to my first half of last year. ”
He shook his head as he spoke, finally drank the champagne from his glass, and then sat down on the couch.
Ackerman was so drunk, so drunk that he didn't even have the strength to stand.
"Why don't you just short the euro?"
Griffin, another emerging fund manager, asked in confusion, but he didn't hear an answer for a while, and he turned his head in wonder, only to find that Ackerman had fallen asleep at some point. He shook his head with a wry smile and turned to the others, "I shorted the euro, I went long the dollar, and at the same time shorted Greek government bonds." However, due to time constraints, I didn't sell much. So the earnings are a little more than him, and so far, the floating profit on the books has reached $500 million. ”
He did not shy away from telling his earnings at all, obviously with the intention of investing in the name.
Among those present, he and Ackerman's fund was the smallest. In other words, if the other people plan to leave them out of play, they don't have any tricks up their sleeves. Therefore, they have the intention of surrendering to sincerity, and want to use this to show that they and they are of the same mind.
That's right. Ackerman knew, Griffin knew, and so did everyone else.
"You don't have a lot of guts!"
When all eyes are on Jim. Chanos, I saw him swallow a mouthful of vodka lightly, and then said lightly, "Based on the cautious prospect of the whole thing, I have only invested $100 million in the exchange rate market, and the natural returns are not comparable to yours." Up to now. I only have a floating profit of about $10 million on my books. ”
As a veteran short seller, Jim. Chanos didn't go all out. This came as a rather surprise to others. But on second thought, no one really knew what would turn out before that, so his caution was understandable.
"Is it my turn?"
Among the rest of the people, only Paulson, Dario, and Bell Stone looked left and right, and realized that he was the weakest of the three, and the other two had no intention of speaking. "I'm short Greek bonds, long German bonds, short the pound, the euro, the dollar and the yen, and the current gain is close to $1 billion." ”
He said proudly.
Indeed, compared to others. His steps are very large, covering a wide range, and the amount of money invested is also the most at present. So by far, he has also made the highest gains.
Of course, all this is also related to his blind belief in Zhongshi.
"Wow, that's impressive!"
Dario slapped Paulson twice and expressed his appreciation, then spread his hands and put his positions together, "Short euro, short pound, long dollar, short Greek government bonds, long Greek interest rate futures." So far, I've made about $1.2 billion, but that's just a floating profit on the books. ”
Based on the current volatility of the market, coupled with the targets and yields he invested, everyone quickly estimated the approximate amount of Derio's investment, which was at least $5 billion.
As soon as he remembered that the not very conspicuous Derio beside him was so resolute in pursuing Zhongshi, Paulson's alcohol suddenly sobered up for most of the time, and a sense of crisis rose in his heart for no apparent reason.
"Now it's your turn!"
After Dario finished speaking, there was not the slightest expression fluctuation on his face, and he patted Zhong Shi on the shoulder, "Mr. Zhong, don't you show your report card to dry?" ”
"Sunbathing?"
Zhong Shi put down his glass and chuckled, "Gentlemen, I have to say that your actions don't make any sense. ”
Just as everyone was breathing, Zhong Shi continued, "Since you have all said it. Then I can't help but say it. Well, I'm all involved in everything you can imagine! ”
"What?"
As soon as the words came out, all four were shocked.
Even Ackerman, who had been half-squinting, opened his eyes and sat up straight involuntarily, looking at Zhongshi in disbelief.
"You...... What did you say? ”
Surprised, Paulson couldn't even speak, and stammered.
It's not just a question of shorting strength, it's a matter of confidence that the whole plan will go smoothly and be executed. At least for now, several others are more or less reserved. This is not the reason for not being optimistic, but they are still skeptical and cautious about the whole plan.
But as soon as Zhong Shi's words came out, they realized that at least Zhong Shi trusted unreservedly in this matter.
"I've been involved in dollar longs, euro and pound shorts, Greek government bond shorts, interest rate futures longs, stock market shorts, French and German stock market longs, and their government bonds."
Zhong Shi folded his fingers and said, "So far, the profit of these targets has exceeded 2 billion US dollars, of course, I did not calculate the changes in the exchange rate and the change in profits. Of course, because of the intervention of the eurozone, some of these profits may disappear in the coming period. But I'm at least sure that at least $500 million or more is guaranteed. That part of the profit from the sale of Greek bonds is that part of my previous sale, and I believe that this part of the profit will continue to expand in the future. ”
“……”
He was answered by a gasp.
Everyone felt very bored for a while, and they boasted for a long time, daring to fall in love with Zhong Shi in front of them, all of which were child's play. However, after thinking about it, they were all relieved, after all, although Zhong Shi was the youngest among them, he was the one with the most abundant assets and the most courageous one.
There is no doubt about that.
"What do we do next?"
There was silence for a long time before Paulson asked leisurely. Among these people, he was hit the hardest, because he is now the most popular and praised by the media, and in the long-term touting, he seems to have lost himself. But in front of Zhong Shi, he returned to the cruel reality again.
"Next, we're going to target the gold market!"
Picking up a piece of pizza, Zhong Shi chewed it slowly, and replied seemingly nonchalantly, "Yes, you heard it right, it's the gold market!" (To be continued.) )
PS: Thank you Xiaoqi for the miracle of civilization, cpower, crazy, spring comes and flowers bloom early, and so on! Thank you electromagnetist for your continued tipping! In addition, I would like to express my gratitude to the book friends who voted for the monthly ticket in the past two days, thank you for your strong support for this book last year, and this year the author will make persistent efforts to continue to work hard~