"The current administration announced that this year's fiscal deficit is expected to be 12.7% of GDP, a slight increase of 1.5% from the previous year. In terms of public debt, it will account for 113% of GDP, which will be the second time that the current government has exceeded 100% of public debt. ”

At the government's press conference, Prime Minister Kostas. Karamanis recounts in detail the sources of these debts, mainly the state-owned economy and welfare expenditures. Karamanis said that he will cut spending in this area in the coming year to bring Greece's fiscal deficit and debt ratio into line with the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact as soon as possible. ”

"According to market analysis, it will take at least three years for Greece's fiscal situation to improve. Until then, they need to remain attractive enough to borrowers. However, given the tradition of default by successive Greek governments, this is the most difficult. Then there is Karamanis's professed austerity policy, which Greece will find itself in a difficult position if he does not manage his relations with the various trade unions properly and does not achieve his austerity goals. ”

"With today's demonstrations, it is conceivable that there will be one more strike. How to properly handle this aspect of the relationship is an urgent task for the current government. In the coming period, how to gather confidence in the market and how to get out of the serious debt crisis will be the top priorities. In my own opinion, the implementation of marketization, the reduction of benefits, the postponement of the retirement age, the sale of state-owned assets and other actions are imminent. ”

On TV, guests in suits and leather shoes interact with good-looking hostesses.

On the big screen behind them, live footage of the demonstrations was being played, and the words "oppose layoffs" and "punish corruption" in red were particularly glaring.

"You've achieved your goal......"

After translating all this for Bell Stone, Phaedra. Gail whispered again, "Now you're satisfied?" ”

"Satisfied?"

Zhong Shi glanced at the other party in surprise, "No." I don't agree with you! ”

After asking a few more questions, Zhong Shi's interview was over, and after a few more pleasantries with everyone, Phaedra . Gail escorted Bell Stone out the door. As he walked to the exit of the gate, the content of the TV on the wall caught Zhongshi's attention.

On this day, the Greek government held a press conference. Announce last year's financial situation to all parties.

"You're still not satisfied?"

Phaedra. Gelton became angry, looked at Zhong Shi with round eyes, and asked Zhong Shi in a high-pitched voice, "What else do you want?" Are you crazy? ”

"Do you think I'm a troublemaker?"

Zhong Shi just smiled slightly at the other party's sudden outburst, turned his head to look around, raised his feet and walked outside, "Or do you think I'm someone like Soros?" ”

"That's not what I said. It's you who said it yourself! ”

Seeing Bell Stone's move, Phaedra. Gail also realized his gaffe, and couldn't help but lower his voice, and walked out behind Zhong Shi, saying as he walked, "You also said that you should learn to study society like Soros. It's also because I have little experience and little experience, and I actually believe in people like you. I didn't really realize it today. If it really develops as you designed, Greece will probably fall into a situation from which it will never recover. ”

"What I caused?"

Bell Stone stopped abruptly. Turning to look at Phaedra. Gail, in an unquestioning tone, asked rhetorically, "Wouldn't these problems exist without my involvement?" Answer me! ”

“……”

Phaedra. Gelton was speechless.

His mind raced, and he suddenly realized that even without Bell Stone's involvement, the situation that Greece was facing now was objective. Other words. At best, Bell Stone only acted as a catalyst.

As soon as he thought of this, he suddenly couldn't say a word.

"Soros is most notorious for shorting Southeast Asian currencies, but you have to understand that before Soros shorted, there were already serious problems with the national currencies of Southeast Asia. The problem came first. Then people like us found the problem and accelerated its explosion, which led to the later currency crisis. ”

Zhong Shi said lightly, "Not only in Southeast Asia, but even in the United States two years ago, the problem was the same. We're not troublemakers, we just catch problems earlier than everyone else, and that's it. So if you put all the blame on me, I'm sorry, I can't afford it! ”

Phaedra. The corners of Gail's mouth twitched slightly, still unable to speak.

"Since you're talking about Greece, let's talk about Greece. First of all, Greek politics is largely dominated by two families, the Papandreous and the Karamanes, as you know better than I do. Second, throughout the 80 years of global privatization, Greece has gone against the tide of global privatization and carried out large-scale nationalization, which has dragged the entire economy into a dull and inefficient abyss. ”

"You could say that this was before joining the eurozone. But do you think that by joining the eurozone, these problems will be solved? Perhaps you know better than I am that before Greece joined the eurozone in 2000, Greece's fiscal deficit suddenly became 1% of GDP. These catharsms are also in the past, needless to say. But what is the essence of Greece's economic growth in recent years, you, a local financial reporter, should know better than me, although there was a period of growth as high as 4%, but these are all growth based on borrowing accumulation. You should also be well aware of the fact that there are institutions and countries in the market that are willing to lend money to Greece because of the credit guarantee of the eurozone. ”

"But borrowing is harmful, especially if Greece loses the right to issue money. Because all this is based on good economic development, great prospects, and the Greek government can afford to repay. But if all this no longer exists, then the capital will turn its face and deny people, and you may be able to see this scene soon! ”

Zhong Shi shrugged his shoulders and made a helpless expression, "A high-welfare system needs to be supported by a highly developed commodity society. But for Greece, the level of economic development is clearly not up to this level. Your workers are paid a higher retirement salary than the Germans, but the retirement age is eight years earlier than the Germans. All of this is the root cause of today's problems. ”

"May I ask what happens next?"

Silent for a long time, Phaedra. "Will we be in a state of recession like the countries of the Far East?" Gale said with difficulty. ”

"Recession?"

Zhong Shi gave the other party a strange look and replied with a shake of his head. "You're thinking too simply. Recession and depression are inevitable results, and default is also inevitable. Now it's up to the rest of the eurozone to come to the rescue of Greece. If they can't agree, Greece's exit from the eurozone will not be an empty phrase. If Greece does withdraw from the eurozone, it will be several times more difficult for Greece to repay its debts in its own currency, or to recover from its predicament. ”

"Can't avoid it?"

Phaedra. Gale still didn't give up, and continued to ask, "Is there really no other way?" ”

"Absolutely! Perhaps several funds combined. To save Greece, you must know that the money needed is not very much, only hundreds of billions of euros! ”

Zhong Shi laughed, "But why should someone else come to the rescue?" You must know that in this society of equal exchange, if you can't pay enough price, others will not take it lightly. And this kind of sovereign debt cannot be counted on by individuals or institutions. The Greek government should probably consider asking for help from the eurozone! ”

He said. While taking out his mobile phone, it had been vibrating in his arms for most of the day.

"It's me!"

He didn't shy away from Ferdra. Gail was present. He said, "What? Got it all done? When will it be released? ”

"Okay, I got it!"

The other party said a few words vaguely, Zhong Shi nodded, and then hung up the phone.

"It's ......"

Phaedra. Gail only heard these words, but depending on the timing of the call. Coupled with Zhong Shi's words, he realized that this call might be related to Greece's debt situation, and immediately asked without thinking, "What did you arrange?" ”

At this time, he was no longer resentful of Zhong Shi, because he knew it very well. Everything Zhong Shi said was true. Greece is notoriously inefficient and backward in its economic model compared to other countries' fully efficient marketization. He is also very aware of the development of debt, and after entering this strange circle, some people have been worried about this problem. But when the economy was doing well, many people chose to ignore it, until it broke out now.

He was now curious about what follow-up tricks Zhong Shi had used to short-sell Greece in addition to agitating demonstrations.

"You're a journalist!"

Just patting him on the shoulder, Zhong Shi smiled and got into the car, rolled down the window, and said to Phaedra, who was still confused. Gail replied with a smile, "The news won't be too far behind, I'm sure you'll know soon!" ”

The car slid out silently and soon disappeared without a trace.

Still reminiscing about Zhong Shi's unfathomable smile, Phaedra. Gail thought for a long time, but still had no clue, and could only return to the office with a stomach full of doubts, but when he walked to the office area, he saw that everyone was in a mess.

"What happened?"

Phaedra. Gale casually pulled a person passing by him and asked suspiciously, "What the hell is going on?" ”

"We were downgraded by the S&P!"

It was a young man with a huge body, and because of the excessive weight, Phaedra. Gail almost didn't hold him. The young man turned his head to look at him, looking at him strangely, as if looking at an alien, "Our country's credit rating was downgraded by the S&P by one notch, just now. I'm going to post the news, please let me go! ”

"I see!"

Phaedra. Gail let go of his hand, and couldn't help but look down on this young man a little in his heart. Because just at the beginning of the year, Standard & Poor's downgraded the Greek government's credit rating, from A to A. In Phaedra. In Gail's opinion, this is not a big deal.

For S&P ratings, A refers to a debt-servicing ability that is more susceptible to adverse factors such as changes in the external environment and economic conditions than a higher-rated debt/issuer. The +/- is a minor adjustment to the level.

But when he sat back in front of his computer and checked the news, he realized that the whole thing was not what he thought. S&P did not downgrade the credit rating of Greek sovereign bonds to the next level, BBB+, but directly to BB-, which is a direct downgrade of two notches.

This means that, in S&P's view, the Greek government is the least likely to default relative to other speculative ratings, but in the event of a persistent, significant situation or adverse commercial, financial, or economic conditions that may make the issuer unable to repay its debts.

"All of a sudden, it's a junk debt!"

Phaedra. Gail's hairs stood on end, and he gasped, his hair tingling. It was only then that he realized that the whole thing was far more serious than he thought! (To be continued.) )

PS: PS: Happy New Year to the majority of book friends! We've all been through a lot in the past year. Although each of us is a small existence for the whole society, for us as individuals, we are all and all. In the past year, there have been laughter, tears, regrets, and satisfaction, and we have tasted the ups and downs of the world, and we have lived bravely and tenaciously in the world. But it's all over the place, and we applaud ourselves and cheer for ourselves. In the new year, we still have to work hard for ourselves. I wish every book friend can make their wishes come true in the new year. Having said all this, thank you again for so many book friends who voted for the monthly ticket today, and finally have the cheekiness to ask for a count......