Although the price fluctuation is not large, it still caused a serious loss to the withered fund, but the magnitude and speed of the loss are far less than the situation when they closed their positions on a large scale before.

Now there are two more roads in front of Zhong Shi, which are still the two choices before, one is to close the position, and the other is to continue to choose to wait and see. However, the current situation is different from before, and there are a large number of closing orders in the morning market, and there is no doubt that there is no withering in the liquidation of the position. And now it is unusual, and it is no longer necessary to continue to close positions, which is a bit weird.

Although it is not clear what is happening, everyone knows that even if the position is not closed, the position that does not wither will continue to lose money. It is not known what exactly caused them to stop closing their positions, whether they had strong support, or whether they successfully sold their positions. So, now the question arises, how to choose.

There is uncertainty in the market.

"What do you think?"

Frowning and thinking for a long time, Zhong Shi hesitated, he didn't know what was going on behind the scenes, so it was naturally difficult to guess what the top management of the Withered Flower Fund thought, but this was not a problem in front of him, but a problem in front of the entire market.

If you don't wither the flower fund, you will be caught?!

"This should be a psychological tactic for them to see that the price fell sharply after closing the position in the morning, and the loss expanded too strictly, so they temporarily stood still and played a psychological tactic, right?"

Jiang Shan said first. The young man's head was very bright, and he thought of a possibility at once, but after the words blurted out, he regretted it slightly. Even if you play psychological tactics, but the losses still exist, the traders in the market will not give up the attack on their positions, so at most this is just a delaying tactic, and it will not solve the current dilemma at all. Once the market sees through it, the withered fund may suffer a more fierce attack.

"It's also possible. But I think the most likely possibility is that they may have found a big player in the market who is willing to take their positions, so that they can temporarily appease the investors who are collecting their debts. If they close their positions at this time, they are very likely to be besieged by everyone until they liquidate, so that investors may not even get a penny. And if someone takes over. Maybe they'll get a little bit back, but it's better than nothing, though it's pitiful, isn't it? ”

Hu Ping pondered for a long time. Draw a conclusion that is more factual than the facts. But he wondered in his heart. At this time. Who else would dare to take over the unwithered natural gas position, do they still think that this part of the position can make money?

On Wall Street, as long as it's something that makes money. There are people who are going to do it. The only exception, I'm afraid, is the thing that doesn't make money, because here, money comes first.

Others talk about several possibilities, but without exception, there are only so many of these opinions, and more is impossible, after all, the objective facts are there.

"Is there a possibility that when this part of the position falls to a certain level, there will be a rebound, and if you can eat it at the lowest position, it will be profitable when the time is right?"

Zhong Shi had been pondering while they were expressing their opinions, and he also agreed with Hu Ping's statement, but the problem was that they would not do it if it was not beneficial. After all, even if this part of the position is delivered, it will have to wait until March or April of the following year, and there is still at least half a year before now, and there are too many variables that may be stored in zài during this time, so Zhong Shi subconsciously thinks that the other party must be interested in the profit opportunities that may be stored in zài.

"This ...... We need to do the math! ”

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, Hu Ping was stunned at first, of course he heard that Zhong Shi was inclined to his own point of view, but the next moment he was a little confused, naturally it was not as far-reaching as Zhong Shi thought, so under a slight groan, he could only answer with the attitude of giving it a try.

Hu Ping's team is no slouch behind any of the world's top quant teams, and with their months of immersion in the natural gas market, it was easy to come up with a preliminary forecasting model.

Of course, for the market, it is impossible for any model to really predict the future direction, these models are only calculated through the normal distribution in probability, adding various variables and influencing factors to the model, and calculating the probability of changes at a certain point in the future. Of course, the final conclusions are all numbers.

"Alright, command the men now, and start building the model right away." After hearing Hu Ping's words, Zhong Shi's brows immediately relaxed, and without saying a word, he immediately ordered, "Let's see, what is the other party's idea?" ”

"But ......"

Hu Ping agreed, turned around and prepared to start work, but the next moment he thought of another possibility, and hurriedly said: "But Mr. Zhong, if we don't calculate accurately enough, or miss an excellent opportunity to close the position, this responsibility ......."

"Naturally, I bear it!" Zhong Shi glared at Hu Ping dissatisfied, and said helplessly.

At this time, Hu Ping was still thinking about his little dividend, which naturally made Zhong Shi quite dissatisfied. But this is the way they are, greed has been deeply implanted in their bone marrow, so even if it is possible to get more benefits, they only want to make sure that they get the part first.

After receiving Zhongshi's instructions, except for some people who continue to observe and attack the positions that do not wither, everyone else is engaged in building a model to predict the fluctuation of natural gas prices.

……

The position on the 18th ended up at $4.94, down 0.80%. Subsequently, in the continuous shock, the price of natural gas in the spot month continued to fall, on the 19th, 20th, and 21st, there were different declines, and on the 21st, the price of natural gas per lot was fixed at $4.78, and then hit a new low again on the 22nd, closing at $4.63, and by this time, it was not far from the end of trading in the September contract.

During this time, the attacks on the positions of the non-withered fund continued to unfold, and the market saw its weakness of "making a big U-turn". Crazy attacks include gas contracts for various months. In the continuous attack, the spread between the 0703 contract and the 0704 contract was narrowed to $0.94, which is nearly $2 from the most exaggerated time.

Roughly calculated, the position of the Withered Fund lost nearly $6 billion in this wave of attacks, which is an absolutely terrifying figure. However, to everyone's incomprehension, despite the loss of so much money on the part of the withered fund, there are still no more positions being sold, except for the panic selling on the first day of the leak, the rest of the market is calm. There is no such thing as a big order at all. However, there are a few large-scale closing orders in the market, and naturally some people will accept them when they see a good deal, but these closing orders can make very few transactions that do not wither flowers, as long as they appear. It will soon be coaxed by many traders to snatch it up.

And Bell Stone is here. It also began to gradually close a part of the position. His position is now second only to the natural gas position of the withered fund in the market, so even from a safety point of view, it is necessary to appropriately reduce some of the positions.

These two days appeared on the market. Naturally, it was Zhong Shi who ordered his subordinates to throw out the closing order. After dozens of accounts, close to 20,000 hands of closing orders were thrown out one after another, other institutions also seemed to be aware of it, and this is why others can't wait to sell large closing orders in the market. It's just that a large number of traders are simply unaware and are still attacking unwielding positions with impunity.

Clockstone leaned on the side of his bed, smoking a cigarette and watching the sun set, a golden halo of light falling on the lower city/district of New York, smearing the high-rise buildings with layers of brilliance. Looking at the busy driveway and the busy Hudson River in the distance, Zhong Shi's heart suddenly felt a sense of irritability.

It's hard to say why, but Zhong Shi is sure that this whim is a sign that something will happen. He anxiously extinguished the cigarette butt, poured a mouthful of water, forced himself to suppress the inexplicable impulse in his heart, and began to think carefully about what the reason was.

At present, the natural gas position is as much as 800 million US dollars, and there is at least a surplus of more than 1.2 billion US dollars on the remaining books, so there is no need to worry about this. Unless the entire U.S. natural gas pipeline explodes, I'm afraid this part of the position will be wiped out, so even if the price difference narrows, Zhongshi doesn't have to think too much.

Yes, the spread, that's the spread!

Like a flash of lightning striking, Zhong Shi actually caught the thought of that moment, yes, it was the price difference. As of today, the spread between 0703 and 0704 has fallen to $0.90, which is simply too small.

At this time, Hu Ping stumbled over, his face was full of beard, his hair was as fluffy as a bird's nest, and his eyes were bloodshot, he trotted to Zhong Shi, and after he gasped for a few breaths, he threw a copy of the text in his hand in front of Zhong Shi.

"What is this?" Zhong Shi hurriedly took this article, and when he opened it again, he found that it was the prediction model he had asked for before, and he was naturally no stranger to this, and he quickly fell into looking at the operation mode and calculation results of this model.

In this model, Hu Ping and his team took into account almost all the influencing factors, including weather, historical natural gas price spreads, and comparisons between long and short positions. After repeated calculations in an extremely complex model, it was concluded that even in the case of a warm winter, the spread between the 0703 and 0704 contracts is at least between $1.0 and $1.45, and the current spread price is undervalued by 45% to 75%, so as long as it can be sustained, it is foreseeable that when the price fluctuations return to the normal trajectory, it will definitely be profitable to buy this part of the position at the current price.

"Is this calculation reliable?" Zhong Shi watched it for half an hour, and he thought to himself that even if he found some people from the quantitative team, what he would do would only be at this level. After confirming that there was no leakage of heavy dà, Zhong Shi subconsciously asked a rhetorical question.

Who doesn't want to be answered for a long time, Zhong Shi was very surprised, so he moved the text away, but found that he didn't know when, Hu Ping had already fallen asleep on the sofa seat.

……

"Boss, it's been calculated!"

At the headquarters in New York, almost the same thing as Zhong Shi, looking at the sunset of New York, an analyst in a suit and leather shoes quietly walked up to Kenneth. Griffin whispered in front of him.

In total, over the past three days, Basecamp has invested more than 40 people to calculate whether the acquisition of the withered natural gas position will be profitable. They have integrated the number jù from the withered flower fund into their own model system, and even every price change can generate the latest number jù. And in this regard, although investment banks are also interested in non-withered positions, bureaucracy and red tape make it not so easy for them to make the fastest decisions.

"Can we make this deal?"

Griffin bit his cigar, as if he hadn't heard the analyst, and stared out the window at the concrete forest for a long time before chuckling and asking in a low voice. (To be continued......)

PS: I hope more book friends can support this book, thank you!