"At present, the price volatility of this part of the asset has deviated from the normal range of 0.25 to 0.47, and if we take this part of the asset and pay sufficient margin, the probability of this part of the asset appreciation in the future is between 0.51 and 0.84."

Analyst see Kenneth. Griffin didn't say anything for a while, and then continued. After giving a rough overview of the results they had calculated over the course of several days, they waited quietly for their boss to make a final decision.

"How much money is needed to acquire this part of the position? If calculated with the greatest probability, how much profit will we make after acquiring this part of the position? Tell me about the various situations in detail. ”

Griffin pondered for a moment, still undecided, and after thinking about it, he decided to learn more about it, after all, the market is dynamic, and the number returned to him now is only a conclusion based on the current price action.

The bespectacled analyst lifted his glasses on the bridge of his nose and said quickly: "If the market does not fluctuate significantly, that is, more than 10,000 lots are closed, and the range of fluctuations at the current price does not exceed 15%, it is expected that when the price fluctuations return to normal levels, we can make a profit of about $1.750 billion to $2.345 billion." And if there are more than 10,000 lots and less than 20,000 lots to close, we make a profit of about $1.280 billion to $1.742 billion. Closing a position of more than 30,000 lots can cause a lot of volatility in the market, if something like this happens. We probably won't end up making more than $1 billion in profits. ”

After the man with glasses said this expressionless expression, his lips pursed for a long time, and he added, "According to the agreement we reached with the lending bank, the current price of this part of the position is no longer worth so much money, so if you want to buy it, the other part of the position will have to be sold by the withering fund." Of course, what type of asset portfolio we calculated, their light crude oil position is the most worth buying. ”

A loan borrowed against a portion of the base fund's portfolio. to buy a natural position in the Unwilted Fund. This is one of the financing strategies that has been prepared for a long time. And now the situation has developed beyond their previous expectations, the loss of this part of the position has been so strict that it is not worth so much money, and this part of the loan cannot be placed in the account, so the staff of the base camp set their sights on some other better positions of the non-withering fund.

"Wow. This was a real surprise. A smile finally appeared on Griffin's face. In the original offer for the non-withering fund. They had already kept the price very low, but they never expected that it would only be a few days later. This huge part of the position is no longer worth that much money, and they will even need to pay more for their portfolio to be able to close, although it is said that it is not the big picture, but the unexpected episode still makes Griffin laugh.

After waving the analyst away, he dialed Nick's phone.

"Nick, I'm Kenneth, and yes, we've got preliminary results." Griffin touched the bridge of his towering nose and tried to hide the smugness between his words, he knew very well that he was taking advantage of the fire to rob, but being able to save the Immortal Flower Fund from the dire situation reduced the guilt in his heart a lot, "Yes, of course the transaction will continue, and we will trade at the price originally quoted to you." ”

Nick let out a long sigh of relief when he heard that he was finally able to get rid of that part of his position. In addition to dealing with debt collection from investors from all walks of life, he also has to keep in touch with investment banks and funds at all times in order to listen to their quotations for this part of the position.

Compared with other investment banks, the base camp offer is not too tempting, but the key is that they can come up with cash in the fastest time, which is what the withering fund needs most at the moment. Nick was still rejoicing, but Griffin's words immediately poured cold water on him.

"Due to the fact that your losses are very serious, the price we have previously opened has far exceeded the actual value of this part of the position, so we have to add another part of the portfolio to be able to close. Then you should understand, after all, we are all businessmen, and there is no reason to do a loss-making business. ”

"Oh my God, this guy is so shrewd!" Nick roared wildly in his heart, he was very unwilling to accept the other party's conditions, but he also knew that he didn't have many options, because it was the case. Although the other party will definitely make a profit in the future by buying this part of the position, for the non-withering fund, the future income is already unattainable.

"How much do you need?" Trying to suppress the dissatisfaction in his heart, Nick tried to calm his tone and pretend to be rational. The more you are at this time, the more you have to express your professionalism, after all, you can't let the other party look down on you.

In fact, Nick already has plans for the future, because according to their calculations, even after all these positions are emptied, the withered fund still has more than $1 billion in assets, which is enough for them to make a comeback, if investors do not demand redemption in full.

"$350 million in assets, that's the bare minimum." Griffin's words sounded very bland, but in Nick's heart, it was like a thunderclap, oh my God, asking for so many extra assets, this is no different from robbery.

Nick was ready to refuse at the first time, but when he thought about it, his future comeback plan was still long, and he must not destroy the overall plan because he couldn't get out at this time, so he was silent for a long time and said: "No problem, we just have a convertible bond worth 500 million US dollars, and when the time comes, this part of the bond will be converted into shares, which will be worth at least 650 million US dollars according to the current market value." We can transfer this part of the position, of course, based on the current market value of the transfer. ”

Here, he played a trick, it stands to reason that although the value of this part of the convertible bond fluctuates before it is converted, it follows the rules of bond price fluctuations, and once it is converted into stocks, it is naturally another way to play. This does not mean that the value of the convertible bonds today is equivalent to the market value of the same share of shares in the future.

"Nope! No! No! "Griffin naturally won't fall for this, and directly and clearly denies Nick's suggestion." I'm sorry. Nick, I'm not interested in convertible bonds, that's not my area of expertise. We are buying an energy position this time, and naturally we still want an energy position. Right. We do have our eye on your crude oil contracts. ”

"What?" Nick's face changed immediately. He has a clear picture of the position held by the entire non-withering fund now, because of the collapse in natural gas prices. The price of crude oil, which is an alternative, has risen significantly, and this is one of the few profitable positions currently available in the fund.

Wanting to sell this part of the position, Nick naturally looked embarrassed, thought silently for a long time, and could only leave one sentence first, "Kenneth, we need more time to decide this, but I won't let you wait too long, so let's call you in half an hour, and tell you our final decision then." ”

"Okay." Griffin naturally agreed, but he reminded, "Man, you should also know what the situation is at the moment, if we can't reach an agreement, the market will still change in the end, and I may want more at that time." ”

After hearing Griffin's half-admonishing and half-threatening words, Nick didn't say anything more and hung up the phone silently.

……

"According to reliable sources, the Withered Flower Fund is currently actively selling its positions, and it is not clear who the specific buyer is, but it is certain that the transaction may be in the next two days!"

Just when Zhong Shi was still carefully flipping through the text on his hand, Jiang Shan ran in quickly, and before he could even catch his breath, he loudly reported the news he had just heard to Zhong Shi.

After finishing speaking, he saw that his boss Hu Ping was also in this room, although he shouted loudly, but Hu Ping, who was lying on the desk, just muttered a few words, changed his posture and fell asleep again.

Seeing that his recklessness almost disturbed his boss's rest, Jiang Shan couldn't help but stick out his tongue, looking a little embarrassed.

"Now that you've heard the news, it seems that the whole market probably knows." Zhong Shi nodded slightly, thinking that the time was almost up, and after thinking for a while, he said, "Is there any news of the other party's buyer?" I'd like to talk to them. ”

"This ......" Jiang Shan said with a sad look on his face, "Whether the specific transaction has been reached or not has not yet been determined, let alone the identity of the buyer." What is certain is though, that the news should be true and that the source is very reliable. ”

Now Hu Ping's team still has close to 30,000 contracts, and it will take at least a few weeks for this position to be completely digested. As soon as he thought of this, Zhong Shi's face showed a look of regret.

"Then we ...... now"

Jiang Shan couldn't wait to ask, he also knows the current situation very well, if he can't close the position in time, when the news is completely announced, the market of falling natural gas prices in the past half a month may be terminated, and the spread between 0703 and 0704 contracts will not only not continue to narrow, but may also expand, and then their book profits will shrink a lot.

Of course, losses are unlikely to happen, as they took over at a time when they were not able to wither, expanding their two-month contract to over $2.5. And the spread between the two is absolutely unlikely to rise to this point again.

"Let's take a look at the market first!" Zhong Shi also realized that what he had just thought might be too perfect, because even if he knew the identity of the other party, he was not sure that the other party was willing to close the position, because he didn't know the other party's psychological bottom line at all.

……

On September 25, the price of natural gas in the spot month just opened and there was a gap, the opening price of 4.57 continued to be sluggish for more than half a month, and the intraday price of 4.40 once fell to the lowest price to make the bulls cry bitterly, although it finally closed at $4.46, but the 3.67% decline throughout the day has doomed the bulls to failure.

At this time, there is only one trading day left before the end of trading in the September contract, and according to the general trading logic, the sharp fluctuations and large transactions during this period are the most prominent, and the rumors circulating in the market about the position of the withered fund to find the next home make the market crazy, and the traders realize that there is not much time left for them, and naturally they are crazy to attack the far month contract.

And it is against this background that the September contract has once again fallen sharply. After the market closed, the fund issued an open letter to investors, claiming that its natural gas position had been successfully sold, and then, after a loss of nearly $7 billion, the fund finally got rid of this heavy burden. (To be continued......)