Chapter 12: The Pound Falls (2)

"What happened?" The noise in the trading room finally woke Andrew, and he wiped the saliva from his mouth without figuring out what was going on.

"It's time to start making money!" Zhong Shi smiled slightly, looked at the exchange rate of the pound against the mark on the screen, and said incomprehensibly.

"Make money?" Andrew's eyes lit up, and he followed Zhong Shi's gaze to the electronic display, and only saw a straight line. "Buying and selling foreign exchange? Why is the pound not moving? He was still a little sober, knowing that Zhong Shi had been keeping an eye on the exchange rate of the pound against the mark lately.

"No, our battlefield is not here, but somewhere else!" Bell Stone lifted his feet and walked outside, leaving little time for Andrew to react.

"What, not here? Where else could that be? Andrew quickly got up and chased after him, asking as he went. He really didn't understand how there was a more profitable place to make money in the foreign exchange market with such a volatile situation.

After walking for about ten minutes, they came to a hall that can accommodate dozens of people, which is slightly smaller than the foreign exchange trading hall just now, but the configuration in front of the traders is about the same, almost everyone has a heavy electronic display screen like a TV that is constantly flashing numbers, it is a computer monitor, and a few buzzing telephones, in addition to these, there are quotations scattered all over the place.

This is HSBC's bond trading arm in London, where traders buy and sell government bonds from various countries every day, making a profit from every small price movement, and the amount of money coming in and out every day is second only to the foreign exchange trading department.

As soon as Zhong Shi and Andrew appeared in the hall, a man in a suit and leather shoes walked up to them and said respectfully, "Mr. Zhong, you are here!" ”

Zhong Shi nodded, and without further explanation, followed him into a smaller room.

When Zhongshi's funds enter HSBC's brokerage channel, basically all derivatives trading accounts are opened, and the funds will flow to the relevant channels with just a phone call. This time, he basically invested all his money in foreign exchange trading, and could only use the amount of funds in the family fund to borrow 50 million pounds from HSBC for a temporary basis.

This time he wants to make a big fuss about Treasury futures.

There is only one type of British government bond in circulation in the UK government bond market, and that is the 10-year bond with a face value of 100,000 pounds and a coupon rate of 6%, which is a long-term bond that is bought and sold over several delivery periods ranging from one to nine.

In the case of bonds, the yield is basically linked to the interest rate, and the longer the payment period, the more the price fluctuates with the interest rate, and the closer to the payment period, the closer its price is to the coupon price.

It is precisely because treasury bonds are guaranteed by government credit and the risk is minimal, so bonds, especially treasury bonds, are called risk-free investments, and their yields are basically the vane of interest rates, and the long-term yields of bonds in a market where interest rates are marketed are basically equivalent to interest rates.

What Zhong Shi wants to do this time is the 10-year treasury bonds issued this year, and the coupon interest has not yet been paid.

"Short 10,000 lots, sell immediately!" Before Zhong Shi, who had just sat down, had time to take a sip of water, he ordered the agent who received him.

For 10,000 contracts, the par value is one billion pounds. However, at this time, the price of each lot is about 86,000 pounds, and counting one-twentieth of the margin, it is about 4,300 pounds per lot, and 10,000 lots is 43 million pounds. (The real price is 83,000 pounds, but because it is futures, the trading price is slightly higher)

The average daily trading volume of the British long-term government bond futures trading market in '92 was about 50,000 copies, and although Zhongshi's hand count was a large amount, it was nothing and could be fully digested by the market.

The agent was stunned for a moment, then closed his mouth playfully and tapped on the computer screen.

At this time, the in-house trading, which is basically live outcry, has begun to wither, and electronic matching has become popular, but for some market makers' brokerage firms, seats on the exchange and traders in vests are still indispensable.

However, within HSBC, these large orders are matched on the electronic disk first, and can also be matched through their own channels, which requires traders to call the brokerage companies of familiar market makers, related large buyers, and of course, these also have to go through the exchange.

Soon, the sell order was filled, and it took about half an hour before and after.

"And then?" When the news of the transaction came, Andrew looked at the numbers on the screen in a daze, a little dumbfounded, he never expected that Zhong Shi pretended to be for a long time, and sold nearly 50 million pounds of treasury bond futures again, which made him very puzzled.

He is very familiar with the futures, no matter what the subject matter is, but the basic principle is the same, that is, to amplify funds through leverage, and then to obtain profits by selling high and buying low or buying low and selling high.

"Wait and see!" Zhong Shi didn't explain much, closed his eyes and began to recuperate, as if the person who gave the trading order just now was not him at all.

UK Treasury.

After Major refused to raise interest rates, Lamont had to ask the Bank of England to buy pounds in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain the exchange rate of the pound against the mark within the boundaries of the European exchange rate system, but the efforts of the Bank of England could not change the frenzy of the sell-off of the pound, and soon the pound was nailed to the lower limit of 2.7780.

In addition to the exchange rate of the mark, the pound also saw a sell-off against other currencies, and the pound fell from the opening level of 1.8580 to 1.8000 against the dollar, which did not last long, and soon broke through this important barrier.

In the Far Eastern market, which has closed, the exchange rate of the pound against the yen has also fallen by 2.71 percentage points, and even after the market has closed, orders to sell the pound and buy the yen in the market are still pouring in.

Basically, the pound is depreciating against several important currencies on Shijie. In this case, the Bank of England needs to face not only pressure from the Mark, but also selling pressure from various other currency holders.

At half past ten, Lamont called the prime minister's office again, in which he urged the prime minister to announce an interest rate hike and repeatedly explained the urgency of the current situation.

At this time, the Bank of England had invested more than $10 billion in foreign exchange reserves in the foreign exchange market, but the pound was still nailed to the edge of the European exchange rate system. Now all they can do is to continue to invest money in the foreign exchange market to buy pounds, and the only way left is to raise interest rates.

Lamont's request was successful, and Prime Minister John Major agreed to raise the interest rate by two hundred basis points, from 10% to 12%, and the news would be announced at eleven o'clock.

Lamont was relieved, and when he put down the phone, he didn't realize that he was already sweating profusely behind his back. After anxiously waiting for more than ten minutes, he walked to the window of the treasury office and looked at the big screen of the Reuters news agency, hoping that the news of the rate hike would give the pound a little vitality and reinvigorate it.

The result disappointed him, when the news of the interest rate hike was announced, the pound on the screen did not react at all, it was still a straight line, at this moment the British Chancellor of the Exchequer felt as if he was looking at a heart monitor, the pound was like a patient who had died, the heart would not beat at all, and the only thing left was to remove the intubation.

At this moment, his heart was as cold as water.

But there are people whose hearts are burning like fire, especially in markets where interest rates are related, and those who are doing it in the right direction, such as Bell Stone.

When the news of the rate hike came, the price of government bonds in the market immediately plummeted, especially the government bonds that were still ten years away from delivery, and the price immediately fell from 83,000 pounds per share to about 7,400 pounds, because this price can only meet the long-term interest rate of 12%, which is the real price of bonds.

In the bond futures market, the price of government bond futures, which is still a decade away from delivery, also fell rapidly, falling by more than a thousand pounds per contract, and then staying at 75 million.

Although the rash interest rate hike is to attract the return of capital and ease the pressure of selling the pound in the foreign exchange market, there are too many things involved in the interest rate, and the first is the government bond market.

In addition to the government bond market, the UK stock market also moved, and the stocks of real estate companies immediately plummeted, which in turn affected the performance of the Financial Times index, which has been declining since September, and has fallen even faster than it has risen since September.

The FT 100 has been rising since September, as a weaker pound increases the competitiveness of British goods in the shijie market, which is a huge boon for British businesses. However, after the news of the interest rate hike came, those who took out mortgages to buy houses suddenly added a lot of pressure, or many people will give up continuing to pay for their houses, which is not good news for the real estate industry, and the whole market has begun to decline due to the drag of the real estate sector.

There is a connection between the different markets, and this link is achieved through interest rates in today's view.

"What now?" The broker watched in amazement as the price of Treasury bond futures plummeted, and almost in a matter of minutes, Bell Stone's account had added more than 10 million pounds in profit.

Now that the participants in the market have become frightened birds, such a sudden rate hike without any wind is a nightmare for the long side. At this time, there is only one thought in the minds of the bulls, that is, the ghost knows whether the British government will announce another interest rate hike at some point in the future to maintain the pound in the European exchange rate system, so they either can't wait to leave the market, or turn around and start shorting, so this is also the most time for short sellers to leave the market.

"Close all positions, and transfer the battlefield in addition!" Zhong Shi said categorically. For less than an hour, he has already earned about 20% of the profit, which is enough to make him satisfied.

"Huh? Are we going to move the battlefield? ...... gain here" Before Andrew could finish his words, he saw that Zhong Shi had already stood up and walked briskly outside. He screamed and hurriedly chased him out.

When the news of the British interest rate hike reached the United States, it was 6 o'clock in the morning, and the first rays of sunlight were casting from the sea onto the skyscrapers of Manhattan, and the hedge fund managers who had been busy all night felt that the dawn of victory had appeared. (Ask for Sanjiang tickets, I hope everyone will support you on the weekend, the author is grateful!) )