Chapter 11: The Pound Falls (1)

Compared with the era before Zhongshi's rebirth, the current historical trend has been a little different.

In the original version, after seeing the Wall Street Journal report, the Quantum Fund began to sell the pound sterling in the foreign exchange market on a large scale, and bet heavily on another strong currency, the mark, taking advantage of the depreciation of the pound and the appreciation of the mark to make huge profits, and it is said that it has established a short position worth $8 billion in pounds, and a long position of nearly $7 billion in Mark on the other side.

Zhongshi's quick reaction made the price of the pound fall in the foreign exchange market faster than before, and also made it more difficult for Soros to sell the pound, and the size of the position became much smaller.

Most of the major commercial banks are traded in the foreign exchange market, and the foreign exchange trading departments of these banks often trade hundreds of millions of dollars, taking advantage of every small price movement to make a profit. The smallest unit of change in the forex market is 0.0001, which is referred to as one basis point.

The volatility of the pound in the foreign exchange market quickly attracted the attention of other traders and hedge funds, who quickly joined the camp of shorting the pound after a little analysis. The price of the pound turned sharply downward, and soon approached the lower limit of 2.7780 (against the mark) set by the European exchange rate system.

Soon there were no buyers on the market, and everyone understood that the depreciation of the pound was already inevitable. At the critical point of 2.7780, there is only one buyer left in the market, and that is the Bank of England.

At half past three in the evening in New York, at half past eight in London, September 16, managers and traders of Wall Street hedge funds, who had made huge bets on the pound, simply ignored the all-nighters of the past few days, still looking for buyers in the brightly lit offices.

The Bank of England has shot!

Before the market opened, the Bank of England intervened twice, spending a total of £600 million worth of foreign exchange reserves to buy pounds in the market, but it had no effect on the surging selling in the market, and the emergence of sellers caused even more selling.

"I'm going to sell a billion pounds!" Druckenmiller, who was far away in New York, gave orders to the traders loudly.

"Billion?" The young trader shuddered, so frightened that he almost threw off the microphone in his hand. Such a number was larger for him than any transaction he had ever made before, but the professionalism of Liang Haode made him immediately place a sell order after a moment's pause.

When a billion pound sell order appeared on the trading screen, traders who were still hesitant to continue to short the pound immediately followed suit and threw out sell orders of varying amounts again, once again increasing the pressure on the pound.

In fact, in the free-floating market of the pound and the dollar, the pound has fallen for five consecutive trading days, a decline of more than 7.5 percentage points, and excluding the pound sterling sold last night, Zhongshi has made a profit of more than five percentage points in the foreign exchange market.

“2.7790…… This is an important juncture! Zhong Shi, who had a refreshing night's sleep, stood in front of the display screen in the trading room, touched his chin and muttered to himself.

Yesterday in the middle of the night, he sold about $2 billion worth of pounds at the lower limit of 2.7780, which is logically not a reasonable price, because the exchange rate did not fall to that extent at that time. According to the current exchange rate, the pound is still above this level, so it is quickly taken over by arbitrage capital.

Now that his position is fully established, the next step is to sit back and wait for the pound to depreciate, so he can look at it with a detached mind.

"Broken through so quickly?" When it was time for Bell Stone to get a cup of coffee, the important barrier of 2.7790 was broken and the pound fell below this price, and the immediate price was 2.7788.

The seemingly inconspicuous two basis points are backed by countless funds coming and going. The Bank of England continues to buy in the market, maintaining that the price does not fall to the bottom line of zuihou.

At 8:40, the pound reached another important level at 2.7785, which is the second line of defense, and there is only a 5 basis point gap from 2.7780.

"Buy! Keep buying! ”

Pemberton shouted loudly in the Bank of England, his eyes already reddened and his voice a little hysterical. At the same time, he grabbed the phone and dialed the special line to the office of Chancellor of the Exchequer Lamont.

"I'm about to lose it, hurry up and think of a way!" The Governor of the Bank of England shouted on the phone without grace.

He understands that once the pound reaches its bottom, then there will be no other buyers in the market, and perhaps at other levels, there will be commercial banks buying, because they know that at the lower point, which is at 2.7780, the Bank of England will buy, so that they can earn the relevant exchange rate differential.

So far, they have used more than three billion pounds of foreign exchange reserves, but the pound is still falling, and the quotations are getting lower and lower.

"Hold on, I'll report to the prime minister and ask for a higher interest rate." Not long after Lamont arrived in the office, and even the chair was not yet hot, and bad news came one after another.

He couldn't help but think of the thought that flashed through his mind yesterday, that is, the possibility of Britain introducing a European exchange rate system. What was a fleeting idea is now a reality.

But before he could call the Prime Minister's Office, the Bank of England called again. The price of 2.7785 has been declared broken, and the exchange rate of the pound against the mark is about to fall to the lower limit of the European exchange rate system.

Speculative money frantically sold and bought in both markets, buying the mark on the one hand to force it to appreciate, and on the other hand selling the pound pound aggressively, causing its depreciation to intensify.

These speculators are well aware that the European exchange rate system, to which the pound is linked, is in essence the exchange rate against the mark, because Germany has the lion's share in the European exchange rate system.

"Immediately seek advice from other central banks and hope that they will intervene in the foreign exchange market!" Lamont couldn't sit still, and he personally called the head of the Bundesbank, Schlesinger.

According to international diplomatic practice, the counterpart to the Chancellor of the Exchequer in England is the Minister of Finance of Germany, and if the central bank of the other party is asked to make a move, then the counterpart is also the Governor of the Bank of England. But Lamont didn't care so much at this time, and the moment he dialed the phone, he immediately pleaded: "Mr. Schlesinger, the situation is critical, and I hope that you can continue to lower the interest rate in Germany in order to keep Britain in the European monetary system." ”

Obviously, such a request is rude and unlikely. Schlesinger, who was in the microphone, coldly rejected Lamont's request, but in return he promised to intervene in the appreciation of the mark in the foreign exchange market, and at the same time urgently sent tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange assistance to the Bank of England.

Hanging up, Lamont's heart was filled with resentment, but he knew that now was not the time for an attack, and the priority now was to ask the prime minister to raise interest rates.

At a time when the foreign exchange market was in full swing, Lamont called the Prime Minister's Office at less than nine o'clock, in which he carefully analyzed the current situation, and finally strongly suggested that the Prime Minister raise interest rates at this time to stimulate the return of foreign capital.

However, he was doubly shocked and frustrated that Prime Minister John Major refused the request.

As the leader of the Conservative Party and the prime minister of the United Kingdom, Major's considerations will not be limited to the economic aspects, as the policymaker and executor of the introduction of the United Kingdom into the exchange rate regime, he fears that the collapse of the pound will affect his reputation, which in turn will make the position of prime minister be challenged by various other members, so he refuses to raise interest rates.

During the call, Major told Lamont that last month's economic data will be released later today and is believed to be a turnaround for the market.

Lamont, who put down the phone, was furious, but there was nothing to be done, and only the prime minister could make the decision to raise interest rates. What he can do at the moment is to continue buying pounds in the market in order to keep the pound above 2.7780.

"Am I selling a little early?"

Looking at the flickering numbers on the electronic screen, Zhong Shi yawned heavily, feeling a little annoyed in his heart.

If yesterday he had sold the pound at 2.7781 and bought it at 2.7780 at this time, he would have made 0.0001 between one entry and one entry, which is hundreds of thousands of pounds in and out of a huge position.

In fact, there are many traders in the market who do this, and every basis point fluctuation in the foreign exchange market contains huge profits, but now the momentum of the buyers is too fierce, which shows the weakness of the sellers.

Naturally, the traders of the Bank of England are well aware of this, which is why they are desperate to maintain the pound above 2.7780, and only then will there be other buyers in the market who will be able to give them a breather, otherwise they will be the only ones left in the market at 2.7780.

“2.7782”“2.7781”……

Zhong Shi boredomly counted one number after another, waiting for the historic moment to come.

At about 10 o'clock in the morning, this figure finally stayed at the price of 2.7780, and since then there has been no fluctuation at all, and it has become a straight line, and there is no room for arbitrage.

HSBC's forex trading room erupted in cheers, with almost all traders shouting that the moment they had been waiting for had finally arrived. There are also a very small number of traders who hold their heads in frustration and curse something incessantly, as if they are stuck in the price.

"Is it finally here?"

Zhong Shi touched his smooth chin and muttered to himself with some unfinished thoughts. Beside him, Andrew was already snoring on the couch without any image, unaware of what was happening.

At the same time, there was a wail at the Bank of England, and all traders knew that they were going to be alone. (There are only two days left for Zuihou to recommend Sanjiang.,I hope you will make persistent efforts in the past two days.,Full support.,I hope this book can go one step further.,I hope friends who like this book can take action.,xiexie~)