"Zhong Sheng, what are you thinking? When exactly do we get in? ”

Seeing that Zhong Shi was silent for a long time, Ma Jiarui couldn't help but be a little anxious, and urged in front of everyone, "Everyone here is your own person, is there anything you can't say?" We all think that 7,000 points is the lowest level, and now that it is not far from that number, shouldn't we be prepared? Huh......"

When his gaze swept to Zhong Shi's computer screen, the words suddenly stopped. This action immediately caught everyone's attention, and they all stepped forward, leaned over to Zhong Shi's chair, and looked down at the computer.

On Zhongshi's Bloomberg client, the trend of today's ruble is prominently displayed, and an almost straight curve is very eye-catching.

"Soros, they're also keeping an eye on the ruble, and this should be part of their plan!" Zhong Shi pointed to the curve on the screen and said, "You shouldn't know much about the current economic situation in Russia, is anyone willing to talk about it?" ”

Everyone looked at each other, they didn't know how Zhong Shi had changed the topic here all at once. In fact, after withdrawing from the Russian government bond market, Tianyu Fund abandoned its research on the state of the Russian economy, so when Zhong Shi asked, no one could answer at all.

"It seems that I just received assistance from the IMF some time ago, and the current situation is not very optimistic, right?" After being quiet for a long time, Ma Jiarui finally replied.

As a macroeconomic researcher, it is mandatory to receive information from all over the world on a daily basis, so even if you don't pay much attention to the state of the Russian economy, you can still be concerned about news similar to the IMF's assistance to Russia. Everyone here has heard of it.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin became the president of Russia, and the former member states of the Soviet Union became independent, but many remained in the Russian Federation, hence the strange combination called "CIS".

Due to the Soviet Union's long-term emphasis on heavy industry and neglect of light industry, the Soviet economic system was turned upside down, and after the disintegration, President Boris Yeltsin of the Russian Federation accepted the advice of American economists and carried out an economic policy called "shock therapy".

The main measures of this policy are: fiscal and monetary policy tightening, reducing government spending. Removal of subsidies. Liberalize prices, open markets, privatize public enterprises, and so on.

It must be made clear that "shock therapy" is not a conspiracy carried out by the Western community against Russia. Rather, it is an economic bailout strategy that was successfully implemented in Bolivia in the eighties. The reason for the failure of the implementation in Russia. It's because there are many reasons. The most important reason is the political instability in Russia and the incoherent implementation of government policies before and after the guidance.

Later lashes against "shock therapy" focused on privatization, as the Russian government divided the Soviet state-owned enterprises into equal shares. Evenly distributed to the nation. But it is undeniable that ordinary people lack foresight, and privatized securities worth 10,000 rubles were far more tempting in Russia at that time than a bottle of vodka, so many visionaries took the opportunity to buy privatized securities in the hands of ordinary people, and eventually when they accumulated a certain amount, oligarchs were created.

The incoherence of the implementation of the policy also worsened the economic situation in Russia at that time, and the frenzied issuance of currency caused the ruble to depreciate rapidly, which completely violated the original intention of "shock therapy".

Subsequently, due to the failure of "shock therapy", the Russian government began to issue government bonds on a large scale to cover the fiscal deficit, but due to the depreciation of the domestic ruble, the Russian government could only raise interest rates to attract investors. The rediscount rate of the central bank of Russia has remained above 30% for a long time, which has kept the interbank discount rate, interest rate, and lending rate at a high level.

With an annual interest rate of more than 30 percent, foreign funds have frantically poured into the Russian market, greatly easing Russia's financial situation.

But this kind of borrowing in excess of interest rates cannot be sustained for a long time, because the tax growth does not reach the corresponding level, and the credibility of the Russian government bonds will be questioned, which in turn will lead to the risk of default. At the same time, if the ruble is not able to maintain its current fixed exchange rate, foreign funds invested in Russia will also be withdrawn due to panic.

The Asian financial crisis that occurred in '97 affected not only the East Asian region, but the entire global market, starting with the Russian currency market.

Due to the widespread panic, European and American funds have been withdrawn from the Russian market. Although Russia's borrowing is modest, the share of domestic and foreign debt is only 44% of total GDP, not even half of which has been reached. But because the timing of debt repayment was too concentrated to leave the government with more buffers, the issue of Russia's bond default was immediately brought to the table.

Therefore, while Russia is actively trying to save itself, it is also asking for help from the international community. On July 13, the IMF and the World Bank, among others, pledged to jointly inject up to $23 billion into Russia to help Russia weather the current crisis.

Now it seems that the problem of repaying the national debt of Russia is settled, but then the crisis of the ruble is ensued.

In order to guarantee the fixed exchange rate system of the ruble, Russia has spent billions of dollars in the previous two months to defend the ruble, because only if the value of the ruble is stable, investors will be willing to come to Russia, otherwise there is no way to make up for Russia's fiscal deficit.

There are two issues before the Russian government: the first is to use the first IMF bailout to pay off the principal and interest on the national debt, and the second is to invest money in the battle to defend the ruble. Regardless of which one, it is a matter of importance, involving the direction of a huge amount of money.

"Zhong Sheng, what do you mean?" Ma Jiarui quickly digested this information, and then came to a conclusion that shocked him, "Soros, they are not only staring at the current Hong Kong market, but also attacking the Russian ruble?" ”

"Not bad!" Zhong Shi nodded, his face was very solemn, "Everyone, just think about it." If the Russian ruble suddenly depreciates, it will definitely cause a global chain reaction, not only the bordering Europe, but even the US market on the other side of the ocean will also be strongly impacted, and the Hong Kong stock market, which will be difficult to stay out of the situation, what will be the situation? ”

"What?!"

Everyone except Zhong Shi was shocked. They never thought about this possibility, and in fact, they didn't delve into the way for Soros and others to choose to attack the Hong Kong stock market in August. It was only after listening to Zhong Shi's mouth that they realized. It turned out that the international speculators led by Soros. So much thought was spent on choosing the timing of the attack.

For a while, everyone's minds turned sharply, and their faces invariably darkened.

"If that's the case, then do we still have a chance of winning?" Another half day passed. Ren Ruowei, who had palpitations, spoke. "Even the timing is so particular. It seems that they are bound to win. Fortunately, we haven't entered the market yet, so we might as well take the opportunity to short, or just sit idly by. If you really want to go toe-to-toe with them. I'm afraid that this time there will be huge losses. ”

Since it was not clear that Zhong Shi had reached an agreement with the Hong Kong government, and Tianyu Fund had not really entered the market, Ren Ruowei proposed this proposal at this time, and it was unanimously agreed by others for a while.

"No, you can't!" Zhong Shi naturally vetoed this, and by this time, he had no way back, "Even if the Russian currency collapses, we can't retreat." In fact, the day of the collapse of the Russian ruble should be the best time for us to enter the market! Do you understand? ”

"Why?" Except for Zhong Shi, everyone else asked in unison.

This time, Zhong Shi did not answer immediately, but looked at everyone playfully, and said in confusion: "I believe you should have a general understanding, the depreciation of the Russian ruble has formed a strong expectation, and now it is only a point in time, it should be like this!" And once the depreciation of the ruble is announced, please think about it, apart from Hong Kong's Hang Seng market, which other market or financial products contain great risks? ”

For the financial market, risk means return, the greater the risk, the greater the possible return, these people are naturally familiar with this common sense. Therefore, after locking the eyebrows and thinking for less than a minute, several people said almost in unison: "Russian government bond market!" ”

"Not bad!" Zhong Shi slapped his thigh, stood up, and walked towards the window. At this time, his whole body was filled with an inexplicable self-confidence, which unconsciously infected several other people, making them relax unconsciously, "If the Russian ruble is devalued, it means that their government has given up saving the ruble." At that time, the eyes of the entire market will be focused on their treasury bonds, and whether they will default will become the top priority of the entire market. Although the Hong Kong market will suffer in the short term, it is very likely to be a turning point for the Hong Kong market because the market has run out of bearishness. ”

"Although on that day, international speculators will definitely frantically attack the Hong Kong dollar market and the Hong Kong stock market, but the Hong Kong dollar market is supported by the Hong Kong government, and it should not be a big problem. We took the opportunity to enter the Hong Kong stock market in the name of bailing out the Hong Kong stock market when the Hong Kong stock market was at its lowest. In this way, we can not only buy the bottom, but also fall into good name, wouldn't it kill two birds with one stone? ”

"For the entire international speculators, the amount of money they can use should not exceed $100 billion, and the amount that is actually put on the market should be around $80 billion. The Russian market should be able to share tens of billions of dollars, the Hong Kong dollar market can bear tens of billions of dollars, and the rest can only short Hong Kong stocks and Hang Seng Index futures, only 20 or 30 billion dollars. Together, our funds, and other funds, should be able to resist. And most importantly, I believe that the central government will not sit idly by and ignore the situation in Hong Kong. ”

After saying that, a smile appeared on Zhong Shi's face. This plan has been planned in his heart for a long time, and now he has said it, just at the time set by international speculators, it can be said that he has exhausted the other party's routine. Coupled with the hole card in the center, it should be a sure win.

Although he knew very well that in the previous world, international speculators were indeed defeated by the Hong Kong government, but this time, he replaced the Hong Kong government as a new force to meet the international speculators, and all the funds used were his own private property, and he was completely ignorant of how the Hong Kong government operated at that time, so even Zhong Shi himself was a little shaken in confidence. However, after truly understanding the other party's intentions, Zhong Shi now regained some confidence.

"It's good, but there's a problem!" Ma Jiarui, Ren Ruowei and the others looked at each other for more than ten minutes before Ma Jiarui said, "Zhong Sheng, can you be sure that they will not transfer funds to Hong Kong and launch a more fierce attack on Hong Kong stocks and the Hong Kong dollar?" ”

"If the Russian ruble falls, the risk of default on its treasury bonds will immediately increase countless times, and the face value of Russian government bonds will deviate from the price, and the yield may reach more than 100%. And then the game will unfold between Russia and the West, you say such a high rate of return, will they be willing to transfer funds over? ”

Zhong Shi immediately retorted, and seeing the pensive looks on the faces of the two, he added, "Maybe you don't know that just after Russia received the first bailout from the IMF, the Russian Duma (parliament) reiterated that it would not accept the conditions for economic reform proposed by the IMF. They are going to exhaust themselves with the Western world! ”

"So ......" everyone suddenly realized, Ren Ruowei said quickly, "The next thing is the game between Western society and Russia, and other people, including international speculators, can't intervene, so they can only bet on one side?" ”

"Yes, after all, it is a country with nuclear weapons!" Zhong Shi nodded, "At that time, the attention of the market will be distracted, and second, it will reduce our financial pressure." Speaking of which, we should be grateful to Russia, they are now the protagonists of the market, and we are only the supporting actors among the supporting actors. ”

"In addition, I have a plan to divide the camp of international speculators." Speaking of this, Zhong Shi looked at the night scene that was gradually lit up outside the window, and a strange smile appeared on the corner of his mouth, "I believe some people must be very interested!" ”

Although they wanted to know what Zhong Shi's plan was, seeing that he had no intention of saying it at all, Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei had no choice but to put away the curiosity in their hearts, set their eyes out the window, and enjoyed the beautiful night view of Victoria Harbor with Zhong Shi. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friends for cutting off the oil and throwing over 110 to vote for the monthly ticket! The author has been refueling the code word, I hope you will support a lot, thank you~