"The market doesn't seem to be what we imagined!"

After shaking his head, Julian. Robertson picked up a steak and chewed nonchalantly, "George, I'm really worried. This time we were putting too much on the position, which was not appropriate. ”

Unlike Soros, Julian. Robertson and his Tiger Fund rose to prominence in the stock market and only then gradually moved to the macro market. Within Tiger Fund, they are even more than the professional investment banking research team in the fields of stock fundamentals, technical aspects, and policy research, and their researchers are far better than most of the researchers on Wall Street.

The problem is, for the research of a single stock or a certain industry, Tiger Fund can be said to be the industry leader. Correspondingly, the research on the international macroeconomic situation and economic trends is relatively weak. Of course, this weakness is relative to other professional macro hedge funds, and the gap is just a millimeter.

In addition to the slight gap in research, Tiger Fund's network and intelligence-gathering efforts in Southeast Asia are also far behind those of other hedge funds. For example, Quantum Fund has long had offices in the Far East, and its managing director of global research, Rodney Brown. Jones is dedicated to the Asia region and is based in Hong Kong. Tiger Fund, on the other hand, has an office in Japan, but it does not pay any attention to Hong Kong, which is not far away.

Now, if you want to understand the dynamics of the Hong Kong market in detail, you have to use local investment banks. So in recent months, Tiger Fund has frequently sent invitations to prestigious investment banking economists in Hong Kong to provide air tickets from Hong Kong to New York. Let them circumnavigate the world halfway around the world to New York to explain Hong Kong's economy to researchers; At the same time, he also frequently sends his own researchers to all regions that may have close ties with Hong Kong's economy, including the mainland, to conduct research.

But even so, Julian. Robertson also felt uneasy, not because he didn't think the research was sufficient, but because the Tiger Fund had made too much of a bet this time.

US$5 billion, equivalent to more than HK$38 billion, is facing an unfamiliar market. It may not be accurate to say that it is unfamiliar, because Tiger Fund has already plundered it twice, but before that it was only a billion-dollar equivalent, only one-fifteenth of the total assets of the entire Tiger Fund.

And this time it's a third. It can be called a big gamble to take out the family money. So even if you have one of Australia's top ribeye steaks in your mouth. Julian. Robertson was still chewing wax, with no appetite at all.

"Relax, my friend!" Soros chewed heavily, and his taste was not affected at all. "I understand your thoughts. But you should also be clear. Hong Kong's market is different from the others, and the economic fundamentals are good. What we have to do is to build on the current momentum and break investor confidence. Judging by previous experience. This time we can at least break their index by 30%, if not more. ”

"My personal estimate is that after our shock, the Hong Kong stock market is very likely to fall below 6,000 points. Don't forget that after the last two blows, we have a lot of heavyweights on hand that have been absorbed at a low price, and as long as we sell them violently at some point in time, I am afraid that we will not even be able to keep 5,000 points at that time. Do the math, the futures of about 8,000 points we absorb now will not earn about $20,000 per future. ”

As he spoke, Soros really snapped his fingers, "$20,000 a piece, according to my current position, 150,000 contracts is $3 billion." Of course, this doesn't include the proceeds from shorting stocks. Also, those stocks can be held. But if we can break the Hong Kong dollar, we will gain much more than that. ”

and Julian. Like Robertson, Soros has also invested up to $5 billion, distributed in several markets such as Hong Kong stocks, Hong Kong dollars, Hang Seng Index futures, and interest rate futures. As in the last few times, the Hong Kong dollar market is a feint, while the Hong Kong stock and futures markets are the main forces.

In the expectation of Soros and others, if the Hong Kong stock market is sluggish for a long time, it will inevitably exert tremendous pressure on the Hong Kong government's sworn defense of the Hong Kong dollar fixed exchange rate system, and then the Hong Kong government will have to face a greater challenge: that is, hedge funds holding funds from the Hong Kong stock and futures markets will hit the currency market more violently and frequently, and finally succeed in defeating it.

If the Hong Kong stock market collapses, coupled with the failure of the monetary system, then the whole of Hong Kong will be in a place of no return.

Soros said it seriously, Julian. Robertson also listened carefully and did not realize any absurdity. This confidence comes from the experience of the previous times, and in fact they have fully considered various possibilities, such as the Hong Kong government will come to the rescue. But in Rodney. According to Jones and others, both sides agreed that the Hong Kong government would not intervene in the market in the name of destroying a free port.

And in the deduction, Soros and Julian. Robertson found that even if the Hong Kong government was willing to bail out the market, as long as they shifted their offensive target and attacked Hong Kong's currency market with all their might, there was still a good chance that their intention would be realized in the end.

This time, international hedge funds, including the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund, have gathered about $30 billion in funds, of course, these are only preliminary amounts, and when the momentum is built, more and more funds will join in.

"I'm finally a little relieved!"

Julian. Robertson shook his head, and after trying to expel the uneasiness in his heart, he finally had some appetite, "By the way, George, what do you think of the Russian national debt?" It is said that they are not very stable there now, and there are already rumors that they are not able to make ends meet! ”

"I don't know this very well!" Soros took a sip of red wine and wiped his mouth with a cloth, "This is the top secret of the Kremlin, and I don't know what these polar bears think." I've asked my advisory panel to look into this issue, and they are all retired politicians who think very differently from us. ”

"Anyway, the yield on Russian government bonds is too high, which is not a good thing." Julian. Robertson's mouth was stuffed with beef. "But as a great power that can compete with the United States, if this credit is lost, I am afraid that future financing will become a problem." What do we do next, I'm talking about Hong Kong. ”

"If you continue to attack, you must make the market panic and cause a herd effect." Soros put down his knife and fork, raised his wrist and looked at his watch, "I'm sorry, Julian. I also have a date. I won't accompany you, just enjoy your food slowly. ”

After saying that, Soros nodded slightly, and removed the napple from his neck. He walked away.

"Oh God. This damn guy. It's not going on a date with Miss Universe again! "Julian. Robertson watched the qiē speechlessly, and waited until Soros's figure completely disappeared into the restaurant, then angrily slammed the fork into the steak that still had most of the remaining pieces. said in a muffled voice, "The guy who can't control his nakedness." ”

It turns out that Soros people are not old-hearted, and they often date beauty pageants with their own names, and the young and beautiful girls are not exclusive to this old guy with huge wealth, and both parties take what they need, almost hitting it off.

Of course, for those big-hearted beauty pageants, most of them are just temporary playmates of Soros, who will be kicked away when they get bored, and all they get is hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars in breakup fees. And even a woman who can successfully lock Soros's heart will be forced to sign a prenuptial property agreement before marrying Soros.

……

"The situation is acceptable, but all kinds of news have started to spread. Among them, the most lethal is the rumor that the central government is considering devaluing the renminbi. ”

On the morning of August 6, before the opening of the market, in the office of Zhongshi of Tianyu Fund, Ma Jiarui, Ren Ruowei and others were reporting all the information in the market from the end of trading yesterday to the current market.

"In addition to these, there is another piece of news!" Ren Ruowei took Ma Jiarui's words and continued, "The Hong Kong government may raise the interest rate today and tighten monetary policy to deal with the impact from international speculators." It is said that last night, they sold tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars in the market, including the spot and futures markets, which were attacked by different Cheng dù. In the previous attacks, such a continuous high-intensity impact had not occurred. ”

"In addition, there is a piece of rumor that could have a shock to today's market. Some people say that HSBC Holdings illegally lent money and printed Hong Kong dollar banknotes without going through the HKMA's procedures. Regardless of the real situation, I am afraid that the stock price of HSBC Holdings will fall sharply today! ”

Hong Kong's note-issuing system is whereby the three note-issuing banks print banknotes directly and then hand them over to the HKMA in US dollars through a fixed exchange rate system, after which they can be issued in Hong Kong dollars. If this procedure is bypassed, note-issuing banks will be able to issue Hong Kong dollars without restraint, and the end result can only be catastrophic.

Of course, the authenticity of this rumor is debatable, but when it is released at this time, it can undoubtedly have a violent impact on Hong Kong stocks.

"Let's take a look at today's plate first!"

After Zhong Shi summarized all kinds of news, he didn't say anything, just sighed slightly and said lightly.

Soon, Hong Kong stocks opened, compared with yesterday's close, opened at 7476 points, a slight increase, and then a small amount of funds entered the market to buy heavyweight stocks, pushing the broader market index to 7522 points. But soon, the force of selling orders overpowered the buying orders, and Hong Kong stocks began to slide, but not by a large margin. Many stock commentators in the intraday are advocating "buying the bottom", but the inflow of funds is still very cautious, and the seller does not want to entangle, the two sides fought around 7300 points for a while before their respective gold retreats, and finally Hong Kong stocks slowly stopped at 7254 points, down 212 points throughout the day, or 2.84%.

"What the hell do they mean?"

After the closing, several people gathered again in Zhong Shi's office and discussed today's market. Ma Jiarui first asked, "Although the first two trading days have risen, the magnitude is not very large. With the frequent arrival of various external news, coupled with the decline of the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, it should be said that this is a great opportunity for them to short, why did the expected fierce attack not appear? ”

"Maybe they think they've achieved their strategic goals? Shipping while slowing down? Ren Ruowei also frowned and asked, "However, in terms of Hong Kong stock futures, the latest closing figure is 7200, indicating that Hong Kong stocks are expected to fall. ”

According to the analysis of Tianyu Fund, in July, international speculators should have preliminarily completed the opening of positions, at that time the index of Hong Kong stocks was around 8500, and then Hong Kong stocks began to continue to fall, so far it has been around 7200, and the income of 1300 points should be enough to satisfy them.

After all, when the Hang Seng Index falls, there should be a limit! Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei both agree that this number should be around 7,000 points, which is the so-called lowest point! (To be continued......)