Needless to say, this semi-academic research report is naturally intended to help the Quantum Fund wash away the negative perception of it in the current market.

In Soros's famous pound attack war, he and his team were not as harsh as they are now, because first, the whole market understands the problem of the pound, and second, with the scale of their funds, they simply cannot affect the real economy of the United Kingdom.

But now in Southeast Asia, there is a wave of attacks on international hedge funds, not just because they have built up a measly $3 billion position, but because this currency attack will deal a heavy blow to their real economy, which has already had big problems before.

To be sure, even if Druckenmiller and his team don't do it, there will be other agencies that will do something about Thailand's current poor economy. In fact, Paul Tudor Jones and Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund, who is no less famous than Soros, were also deeply involved in this currency attack against the Thai baht.

The combined positions of just three institutions are more than $7 billion, not to mention the foreign exchange trading departments of the more powerful multinational banks, as well as the foreign exchange trading departments of Wall Street investment banks, which have not been well-known.

No institution wants to offend a country!

The Quantum Fund is no exception!

But it is precisely because of Soros's reputation that when there is a currency crisis in a certain region, people's first reaction is often the quantum fund, and this habitual thinking puts the quantum fund under heavy psychological pressure.

Rodney Jones wants to turn the tide of the situation.

The best way to do this is to blame the government in power for the deterioration of the overall situation, and in fact the cause of today's evil results is indeed due to their lack of understanding of the changes in the overall international economic situation. This led to Soros's famous defense that "flies don't bite seamless eggs".

It's just that in this way, it is confirmed that the quantum fund is involved in shorting the Thai baht. Rodney Jones couldn't make up his mind for a while, he thought about it for a long time in his office in Hong Kong, and dialed the phone at the headquarters in New York, knowing that at this time, most of the high-level people still had no rest.

……

Tiger Fund.

It's been two weeks since they started raising money in the U.S. Treasury market, and they've only shorted $500 million in bonds.

"Not enough! Inadequate! Julian Robertson listened to the fund manager's report, shook his head and sighed, obviously not satisfied with the current strength of the fund.

Since the yield of the bond market has a lot to do with the benchmark interest rate. In particular, the treasury bond market, which is guaranteed by national credit. Compared with investment varieties in other markets. The fluctuation of the price of treasury bonds is extremely small, which is also the reason why Weishenme treasury bond futures generally have tens or even hundreds of times leverage.

With the benchmark interest rate and its expected stability, investment in government bonds is mainly long-term holding, and liquidity is inevitably lacking. So when there is a massive sell-off in the market. The first reaction of participants in this market is that there is a problem with the fundamentals of bonds. But then they found out that this was not the case.

The U.S. capital market has an extremely specialized division of labor. There are also a number of predators in the bond market. When the news of the hedge fund's collapse of the baht broke, followed by a significant rise in yields in the bond market, the two things were linked. It soon became clear that it was a hedge fund raising money, and the gossip began to spread wildly. In this case, the main buyers of the bond market are beginning to wait patiently.

Time may be money for hedge funds, but it is not a problem for funds that invest in the Treasury market, and their clients are risk-averse compared to those of hedge funds, satisfying them with even a 5% return in a year. Because there is less requirement for absolute returns, these funds have enough patience.

That's why the Weishenme Tiger Fund started selling U.S. Treasuries in the market, and only now raised just $500 million.

"Those institutions have already discovered our intentions, and I am afraid that it will be difficult to have liquidity at the current market price." The traders in charge of bond trading are also helpless, in this market is not their final say, there are many giants with more funds than them.

"yes!" Julian Robertson sighed, he was also at a loss, it wasn't their home field, "How's the situation on the baht?" ”

Billy. Kim, who is in charge of keeping an eye on the Asian market, shook his head slightly when he heard Julian Robertson's question, saying: "The Thai side first fired the finance minister who has always supported the Thai baht, and then the prime minister came out again to make a statement, saying that he has the ability and confidence to ensure that the Thai baht will not depreciate." However, our analysis is that there is a high probability that there will be a shortage of foreign exchange reserves on the Thai side. ”

After a pause, he continued: "But they are still intervening in the major currency markets, and the same is true in the spot market. The forward price has also returned to around 26, which is a positive sign. However, in the spot market, there has been a lack of liquidity for two consecutive days, and our judgment is that a new round of offensive has begun. ”

Speaking of this, he looked at Julian Robertson's obviously difficult face, and said tentatively: "The most important thing now is that if we can't expand our position in time, then even if the Thai baht is lost in the end, we will have to pay an extremely high cost." Isn't it time to reduce positions appropriately? The Quantum Fund is said to have reduced its position by $500 million. ”

In the case of this kind of currency attack, although the major hedge funds cannot fully disclose the information, they do not deliberately hide it from each other, because they all know that the interests of both sides are the same.

But Julian Robertson's attention was clearly not here, and he was keenly aware of Billy. Jin talked about a phenomenon, and before he could finish speaking, he immediately asked, "What did you just say?" The market has been experiencing a lack of liquidity for two days? Spot market? ”

"Yes, on the very day the Minister of Finance resigned, there was a lack of liquidity in the spot market, but it was just our trading hours. A similar situation occurred last night. However, there was a rebound in the futures market, and it was apparently the Prime Minister's speech that restored some confidence to the market. "Billy. Although Kim was a little surprised, he replied unhurriedly.

"The Minister of Finance resigned...... Lack of liquidity...... The Prime Minister spoke publicly...... "Julian Robertson repeated these seemingly unrelated things, and after half a day, he suddenly asked: "In addition to reiterating his support for the Thai baht, what else did the Thai Prime Minister say?" ”

"......" Billy. Kim was stunned, but he thought that Julian Robertson's reaction was a little too big, of course, these are difficult for him to say, "Naturally, it is to explain to the outside world that the Minister of Finance is resigning at this time, and the full wording is to take responsibility for the recent economic downturn in Thailand." It's just a diplomatic code. Can't read any more information. ”

"No!" Julian Robertson shouted, "There must be a connection in this, otherwise the Thai Prime Minister would not have made another move to reiterate his support for the Thai baht." What about the investigation on the forward position in the Thai baht? ”

His reaction was indeed a bit big. Let the managers present put away their disapproving attitudes. Instead, think seriously about the relevance.

Dafan is a successful fund manager. Having a keen intuition for every unusual sign that appears in the market is also an important factor in their continued success. Julian Robertson is one such person, although his main performance is in the stock market. But it doesn't mean that he doesn't have a similar sense of the macro economy and the foreign exchange market.

"In the long term, according to the information from the Thai side, the situation is very unoptimistic. The one-year dollar loans that flowed into Thai financial institutions in the form of forwards alone amounted to $15 billion, not counting the capital outflows. There is reason to believe that the news that Thailand still has $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves is completely implausible. "Billy. Jin thought for a long time before he said expressionlessly.

As soon as his words came out, there was an exclamation, and almost all of them had an incredible expression on their faces. Those who work at hedge funds never imagined that the IMF's data could be wrong, especially with a review of the country's balance sheet.

Although the IMF is nothing in the eyes of these hedge fund employees, after all, it is an international financial institution, and the relevant data released will certainly not be untargeted, just like the employment data released by the US Department of Labor, which will become the main indicator for market reference, how can this kind of data be wrong?

Billy. Jin pursed his lips slightly, obviously anticipating their reaction, which is why he thought about it for a long time before he spoke.

"If that's the case, then someone must have discovered this fact before we did, and maybe they are the ones who are leading the market shorting now!" Julian Robertson had apparently anticipated this for a long time, when Billy. When Kim said this, he did not look surprised at all, but quickly thought about the relevance of this incident to recent events, and immediately analyzed a conclusion that was extremely consistent with the facts.

"In terms of national debt, I'm afraid it won't be clear in the short term. With these assets as collateral, we will lend funds to the banks as soon as possible and go all out to short the Thai baht, this time with a target amount of $2 billion. ”

Others quickly deduced a few relevant details, and finally felt that this was the most likely as Julian Robertson, and after confirming the final plan and the corresponding division of labor, Tiger Fund began a new round of short selling of Thai baht.

Although Julian Robertson reacted quickly, the baht was already in jeopardy at this time. Zhongshi's reckless selling behavior made institutions, including the foreign exchange trading department of commercial banks, also began to follow the trend of selling, and in Thailand, some investment consortiums saw the lack of liquidity of Thai baht for two days, and also began to worry about the repayment ability of Thai financial institutions, and asked to end the contract early to withdraw funds, and this selling of Thai baht reached a climax on June 15.

Tiger Fund entered the market late, and as a result, they only sold about $30 million in baht, and the baht could not hold. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you very much to the book friends Ga Geli, napoleon, let me think about it, mouse flying, lubo98, and Ah Fei for their monthly ticket support! The author tries his best to refuel the code word, looking forward to getting more support from book friends, and at the same time hopes that the subscription can also be powerful~