I have to say that Julian Robertson's judgment is very accurate. When the traders of the Tiger Fund called the foreign exchange brokers, the news of the large financing of the hedge fund giant quickly spread to all corners of the market, and then the multinational banks with Thai baht trading business also received the call to borrow Thai baht, so the foreign exchange trading departments of commercial banks also knew about it.

Like the role played by the Quantum Fund during the pound crisis in '92, the Tiger Fund is one of several focuses that the market is focusing on, and its importance is not inferior to that of the Quantum Fund. In terms of quantum funds, there has been no sign of operation for a long time, and the market has begun to turn its attention to another giant, hoping to follow the Tiger Fund to operate.

Therefore, when the news of the re-entry of the Tiger Fund came out, the giants of the entire foreign exchange market who shorted the Thai baht were boiling, and they heard the signal that a new round of attack was about to be sounded, and they all became extremely active, and they began to gear up, increase leverage, and prepare to do a big job.

In terms of market influence, Tianyu Fund is far behind these old hedge funds, and it is far from being able to achieve the effect of shouting and gathering responders in the market. But the advantage of X-Spatial is that they have an amazingly forward-thinking fund manager who can always be in the right place at the right time.

Although the United States has now noticed it, Zhong Shi has sold about 100 billion baht, which is converted into about 4 billion US dollars, that is, he has sold very little of the loan he borrowed before, and only one billion dollars of Thai baht is left in his hand.

X-Spatial Fund alone swept $4 billion of foreign exchange liquidity from the market. Among them, BOT's foreign exchange reserves probably account for more than half. In addition, the abnormal changes through the brokerage channel have caused a number of commercial banks to follow the trend of Tianyu Fund, and also consumed some of the foreign currency funds traded with the Thai baht in the market, including Japanese yen, British pound and even Hong Kong dollars.

Although the Thai baht is mainly pegged to the US dollar, other major international reserve currencies are also linked, so when there is a problem with the Thai baht, as long as the currency that can be shorted is bought, the corresponding baht is sold.

"Really? They've already made some moves, but what about the scale? "Druckenmiller had just finished the meeting when he received a call from a forex trader. On the phone, the trader who monitors the unusual volatility of the foreign exchange market can't wait to report to him about the changes in his peers. Let his heart move.

The trader was not clear on the phone, and in fact he could not find out more information in such a short period of time, after all, the positions of various hedge funds are top secret and will not be leaked at all. But these funds will appear in the market after all. The approximate size can be estimated.

For Tiger Fund. Druckenmiller had a sense of sympathy. and a little wary, after all, peers are enemies. If Tiger Funds outperform Quantum Funds, their investors may choose to redeem their shares. Instead, he threw himself into the arms of the Tiger Fund.

However, Druckenmiller is not worried about a similar situation, and he has reserved a backup move.

After pacing back and forth in the spacious office, Druckenmiller made up his mind and dialed the phone in Hong Kong: "Rodney, it's me." I just received the news that there will be a big move on the opposite side, the scale of the funds is not large, but it may cause a new round of attacks. ”

On the other end of the line was Rodney, who was based in Hong Kong. Jones, an economist at the Quantum Fund's Asia office, is writing an article about the fact that the main cause of the current currency crisis is not hedge funds, but the stupid Thai government. He reported on this article to the internal management of the Quantum Fund.

"Really? Then I'm going to have to hurry. However, there are some phenomena that you may not know, that is, in the past two days, the foreign exchange accounts of several commercial banks in Hong Kong have sold a large number of Thai baht, and the scale of funds is larger than our position, and it is not clear whether it is the foreign exchange trading department of the commercial bank or their customers. However, I have reason to believe that this is an attack on the baht, not a simple settlement of foreign exchange accounts, because the amount is so huge. ”

Rodney. Based in Hong Kong, Jones has also developed some contacts and has heard of the big moves of several famous banks in Hong Kong. When he heard the news, he didn't think it was right at first, but after two days of selling, he gradually realized that something was wrong.

"Really?" Druckenmiller frowned, thought hard for a long time, and suddenly smiled dumbly, since it was a short sale, wouldn't it be an ally, so why bother where these funds came from? "Leave him alone, maybe it's money from the UK, what we need to do now is to wash us out of the moral blame, and our position is good enough to maintain the excess returns this year, if the baht depreciates."

Rodney. Jones heard something that seemed to be not ready to continue shorting the baht. He couldn't help but be a little anxious, and when Druckenmiller finished speaking, he couldn't wait to ask, "Aren't we going to continue to short?" According to my estimates here, at least $3 billion of foreign exchange reserves have flowed out of Thailand in the past two days. ”

As for the Thai side's so-called foreign exchange reserves of 30 billion US dollars, they do not believe it, and they have also done some investigation in private. Like the Tiger Fund, their investigation of the forward positions of commercial banks found that the Thai side had concealed a large loss of foreign exchange reserves, and according to their internal estimates, the BOT currently has foreign exchange reserves of only about $10 billion to $20 billion.

I'm afraid no one else knows the exact number except for the high-level people who have access to this data in this area. At the time of the second round of attacks in May, it is not known how many foreign exchange traders participated in the market, and how much of the Thai foreign exchange reserves were depleted, and then the Thai side began to fight back, and in the process, no one knows how many foreign exchange traders abandoned their previous operations and turned long baht, so they can only estimate part of the range.

"If you are short, you will naturally continue to be short." If Rodney. Jones was opposite Druckenmiller, and he would have noticed a mysterious smile on his face at this time, and after giving Jones a reassurance, he continued meaningfully into the microphone: "We must not only increase shorting, but also put this blame on others, even our opponents and peers." ”

"Opponents? Peer? "When I heard that the Quantum Foundation continued to short the baht, Rodney. Jones was visibly relieved, but Druckenmiller's next sentence puzzled him again, "Push it to your peers, you mean ......" He recited Druckenmiller's words twice, and then reacted.

"Not bad!" Druckenmiller immediately interrupted Rodney. Jones's words, not letting him continue, "This aspect is just added to that article, we don't need to do anything, just wait and see how the market reacts." ”

Rodney. Jones laughed and said, "I see." ”

……

Time came to June 15th, daytime time in the Eastern Hemisphere, at the beginning of Asian trading hours, due to the strong rebound of the Thai baht in the European and American markets and the expectation that the Bank of Thailand would dare to the market, the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the Singapore market actually opened a high price of 25.89, which is already a new high in recent times.

As soon as this price came out, it suddenly gave a stimulant to the sluggish Thai baht market, and the long side was overjoyed and began to chase the rise in the futures market, and sold the dollar in the spot market in order to arbitrage the double exchange rate difference. Commercial banks in Europe and the United States began to buy and sell Thai baht frequently, but they naturally did not match the buying price at night, but sold the Thai baht at the real-time exchange rate, hoping to earn the exchange rate difference between the low price and the high price.

At the Bank of Thailand, when the Thai baht exchange rate was at a high price, Malaka breathed a sigh of relief. The massive loss of foreign exchange reserves in the past two days has put him under tremendous pressure, and although Mr. Prime Minister's timely speech has contributed to it, the reality is still very urgent, and he has just borrowed two billion US dollars in short-term financial assistance from other countries in the hope of maintaining the exchange rate of the Thai baht for a little longer.

Looking at the jiashi that opened today, I am afraid that not only does not need BOT to enter the market, but on the contrary, they can sell some Thai baht and recover part of the dollar reserves. Thinking of this, he felt a burst of excitement in his heart, yes, he hadn't bought dollars for a long time, and if this situation could happen a few more times, the baht might be able to hold on.

However, his dream did not last long, a large number of baht selling orders appeared in the market, at first it was still sold at the market price, but due to the large quantity, the transaction was not smooth, and soon these prices began to be quoted one basis point below one basis point, and the transaction speed accelerated significantly, and soon the exchange rate in the spot market was suppressed to about 26.93.

Seeing this situation, BOT traders naturally did not sit idly by, and began to buy the baht at a low level, and the two sides began to fight at the position of 25.95, the instant exchange rate of the Thai baht will rise, and the price will fall, but obviously floating around this price, obviously the two sides are fighting very fiercely.

When they saw this, those forex traders who were still bent on going long began to mumble in their hearts, estimating whether this was a short-term surprise attack or a prelude to a large-scale attack. It's just that as soon as they hesitated, many people missed the time to escape. Before they could see the situation clearly, there was another wave of short-selling funds in the market, and this time the selling was even stronger, almost hundreds of millions of dollars of strength to throw a large amount of baht, and in just a few minutes, the baht fell by two basis points again, and the instant quotation reached the point of 25.96 baht to 1 dollar.

The legal boundaries have been approached.

In another market, the situation is not optimistic, hanging in front of the futures to see the long buy order is almost swept away by the autumn wind sweeping the leaves, and then a large amount of sell orders are thrown, just a few minutes will be the baht contract hit the 26 position, and there is a faint Xiangxia breakthrough of Jiashi. (To be continued......)

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