It's another sunny day, and the market is still lying sideways.

Today, the fat man went home, and Zhang Yuanyi came to the sales department alone.

Continue to review, time flies, it's almost eleven o'clock.

Zhang Yuan moved his body together and made a cup of coffee to refresh himself.

The QQ tick sound came on the computer, and a private chat dialog box interface automatically popped up.

Stockholder "Yanyu Jiangnan" sent a message: "Far away, are you there?" ”

Zhang Yuanyi replied: "In"

"Hello everyone", Zhang Yuanyi greeted the stockholders in the group.

There is a lot of excitement in the retail investor group.

"Good from afar!"

……

Yanyu Jiangnan said: "Far away, the market continues to trade sideways today, what do you think?" ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "I still have yesterday's view, and this pullback is a good opportunity to intervene. ”

Little Apple said, "Yes, then I'll buy some."

Zhang Yuan smiled and said, "If there are optimistic stocks, you can indeed buy them." ”

"The market has fallen, still buy?" Dentist Zhou jumped out again.

Zhang Yuanyi said: "From the perspective of long-term trends, I am optimistic about the market. ”

……

Just when everyone thought that Zhang Yuanyi was going to fight with Dr. Zhou again, the old shareholder suddenly sent a message that attracted everyone's attention.

Old shareholders are really old shareholders, and they have been in stock for fifteen years.

The old shareholder said: "Kweichow Moutai's share price is back to 47 after the ex-rights, I rely on it!" ”

Shuye said: "I've been watching Kweichow Moutai recently, and it was very good some time ago!" From February to April this year, Moutai doubled, and the stock price seems to be going up."

Lin said: "It's so expensive, 47 shares!" I can't afford it! ”

Zhang Yuan opened the interface of Kweichow Moutai a little, and Moutai's stock price was a little more than 47. Zhang Yuanyi did not expect at this time that ten years later, in 2018, the share price of Kweichow Moutai would rise to 800 yuan a share.

The recent trend of Kweichow Moutai has also attracted Zhang Yuanyi's attention, and the performance of liquor is more eye-catching in the bull market some time ago.

Moutai, as the most famous liquor in China, has not risen much. However, the stock prices of other liquor stocks have begun to pull back recently, while Moutai's share price is relatively strong.

Zhang Yuanyi looked at the recent trend and felt that the upward trend of Kweichow Moutai's stock price had not changed.

At this time, the old shareholder spoke again and said: "Far away, what do you think of Moutai?" ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "The current stock price trend is very good, and it seems that it will continue." ”

Because he has been paying attention to Moutai recently, and has carefully studied the fundamentals of Moutai, Zhang Yuanyi continued: "Moutai is really arrogant! ”

"There are a lot of companies behind stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, and there are really only a handful of companies that can make money. Kweichow Moutai is one. And it's not the average way to make money. You see, its gross profit margin has been as high as about 85% in recent years! ”

The old shareholder said: "The gross profit margin of the liquor sector is relatively high, but Moutai is the highest. The gross profit margin of some liquor companies is too high, which cannot be believed and is fraudulent! But Moutai is so high, credible, the national wine! Fuck, this bottle isn't wine, it's flowing gold! It's too expensive. ”

The discussion between Zhang Yuanyi and the old shareholders aroused everyone's interest.

The caterpillar said, "Doesn't it mean that liquor has begun to become a sunset industry?" I don't think there are many young people around me who drink liquor."

Xiaojun said: "Yes, now the younger ones like to drink beer and foreign wine, and the older generation drinks more liquor. ”

Happy said: "The people of the previous generation will always get old, so liquor must be a sunset industry." ”

Chenyang objected: "But have you thought about it, the previous generation who drank liquor will be old, but there will be a steady stream of the next generation to become the previous generation!" Sunset industry? That's not right! 04 began to expand the production capacity of alcohol! ”

Dahai said: "Moutai's competitiveness is really strong, the scale of advance collection is really strong, you see its performance has a strong cash flow support: when it was listed in 2001, the cash flow was close to 2 billion, and I think from the third quarter of this year, I guess that the cash flow of this year's 2007 annual report may be close to 10 billion!" ”

"This earning power, where is selling wine, it is selling gold"

"Yes" the old shareholder sighed: "You see, the scale of cash received by Moutai in recent years has been higher than the operating income of the year, and it has never flowed out, it is a net inflow!" ”

"Hey, Moutai's cash flow is greater than the company's operating income, how can this be done?" Ah Chan asked.

Zhang Yuanyi said: "There is only one reason: Moutai appears on various dinner tables. The products are very competitive, and they are collected in advance and not on credit. ”

At this time, a few more shareholders joined in to discuss.

Yanyu Jiangnan also said: "Moutai's performance is really good!" In the past few years since its listing, the performance has maintained a growth rate of more than 40%, and now there are too few listed companies to have such sustainable performance. ”

Brother Hua said: "Moutai's sales expenses accounted for such a low proportion of the year, you see, it has been decreasing year by year in recent years, and it has dropped to 7% this year!" ”

LB said: "Moutai is really powerful, no wonder the stock price is so presumptuous!" ”

Zhang Yuanyi was amused by LB's speech and said: "Not only is the stock price very NB, but the price of Moutai in reality is also very NB, and I went to the * store yesterday and sold it for 600 a bottle!"

"Wow", there was an exclamation in the group.

The old shareholder said: "I have a deep understanding that in the past few years, the price of Moutai has risen year by year, and there are still a few months before the New Year, and the price will definitely be raised again!" ”

"The old stockholders are rich people!" Shareholder Chenyang quipped: "I usually only drink Erguotou, and occasionally drink Moutai to enjoy it"

The old shareholder said: "Now that the economy is developing rapidly, there are more and more people who can afford to buy Moutai, and Moutai is becoming more and more expensive." ”

Leisurely heart said: "Sometimes I go to the * store and want to buy Moutai, but it is too expensive, and I am not willing to buy it." I heard my dad say that in the 80s, a bottle of Moutai was only more than 8 yuan, and now it is almost 700. The price increase is so big. ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "Because of the shortage of goods, the last time I went to the * store to understand, the boss said that the year is almost over, and Moutai's inventory is insufficient." Scarcity is expensive, and when it is out of stock, it will naturally become expensive. This is in line with the law of market value. ”

Leisurely heart said: "My dad used to have a friend from Moutai Distillery, and once told my dad that brewing Moutai seems to require other red tassel sorghum, and what kind of aromatic substances such as tea acid and vanillin should be formed through fermentation, and finally form the unique aromatic substances of Moutai."

The old shareholder asked: "Leisurely heart is working in the winery?" ”

Leisurely heart said, "Yes, so understand a little." The production conditions of Moutai are very harsh, so there should be natural defects in production capacity, and if it is coupled with artificial production restrictions, the production capacity will not be able to keep up. ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "The leisurely heart is on the point, the production capacity can't keep up, and what if you want to make money?" Raise the price!"

LB asked: "The price is raised every year, and so many people still buy?" ”

The old shareholder said: "Because Moutai Distillery is very good at doing business, not to mention the wine, but also to the product to add culture, tell stories, you see that Moutai takes the high-end route more, what custom wine, zodiac wine, aged wine, commemorative wine, etc., plus our Chinese people are superstitious about Moutai, how can some banquets and entertains be without Moutai!" ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "I also paid attention to Moutai some time ago, and also studied the financial statements of Moutai in the past few years, and found that there is a reason why Moutai's performance is always so good, that is, Moutai Company makes corresponding financial adjustments every year, hides profits in good years, and releases profits in bad years, so as to achieve smooth growth in performance!" ”

The old shareholder asked: "Hidden profits? How can Moutai hide its profits? ”

Zhang Yuanyi said: "This is related to accounting principles. The accounting principle is that the parent company's financial statements reflect the data of the distillery, and the consolidated financial statements reflect the data of the selling company. After the distillery makes wine, it is sold to the sales company at a low price, and the cost of the main business is recorded to the parent company; The sales company does not produce liquor, but only sells it at a higher price, and there is no cost of main business, so the consolidated statement will not increase the cost of main business. ”

"Theoretically, the cost of principal business on the parent company's financial statements should be equal to the cost of principal operations on the consolidated financial statements. If the main operating cost of the consolidated statement is less than the main operating cost of the parent company, it means that part of the main business cost of the sales company has not been recognized, and in fact, a part of the revenue has not been recognized. If advance receivables and cash flow continue to flow in, it means that the company's products are not stuck in the sales company, but the products are shipped, but no revenue is recognized. - This is the company hiding its profits. ”

"I see!" The shareholders in the group suddenly realized.

"Yuan Yi is really powerful, this can also be analyzed." Stockholders praised one after another.

The old shareholder also said: "Yuan Yi does know more than us." ”

"I have also paid attention to Moutai's financial statements in recent years, and there is indeed a situation where the main cost of the consolidated statement is less than the main cost of the parent company, and it seems that Moutai has really hidden its profits."

"In this way, in the long run, Moutai's share price will rise. Nowadays, there are many liquor drinkers who say, 'Moutai is a luxury in wine, you see that the bottle is made of art, and investing in Moutai is similar to investing in jewelry, porcelain, calligraphy and painting', so investing in Moutai may really be an alternative investment! ”

Leisurely heart said: "Moutai has culture, and it is still telling stories, and some analysts even say that Moutai is 'thousands of years of accumulation, fragrant and drunk in the world', and its history can even be traced back to the early Han Dynasty!" ”

The doll who loves to drink said: "The quality of Moutai is also good!" The longer the storage, the better the quality, and the higher the price. ”

Little Apple said, "Then I'll buy a few bottles of Moutai tomorrow, maybe I'll be able to make a fortune in a few years!" Haha"

Zhang Yuanyi said: "Today's discussion is more meaningful, and it also strengthens my confidence. ”

"I'm going to buy some Kweichow Moutai stock. Although value investing is not of universal significance in the current market, Moutai can do a little bit to try. ”

What Zhang Yuanyi didn't expect was that his attempt made him a classic case of value investment.

The old shareholder said: "However, the market situation has not been good recently, has Moutai's share price reached a crossroads?" It's already 48 yuan, from a technical point of view, after the resumption, Moutai is sideways at a high level, should I sell Moutai and wait for it to fall down before buying? ”

The old stockholders seem to be asking, and they seem to be talking to themselves.

"Isn't there a joke now: investors who buy Moutai and investors who sell Moutai meet, say silly X to each other, and then leave happily."

Zhang Yuanyi paused after speaking, and then said affirmatively: "If it were me, even if it was a callback now, I would choose to hold"

……