"According to your logic, if we look at the forward positions of Thai banks in markets such as Singapore, we can estimate how much money is actually consumed by BOT?" When everyone listened to Harvey's speculation, they all gasped, completely unable to believe that what Harvey said was the truth. It was Julian Robertson who was the calmest, and only asked for a moment of surprise before asking the key to the matter.

Some time ago, officials of the International Monetary Fund just visited Thailand, and during the visit, the Thai side announced in a high-profile manner that there are still up to 30 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves to defend the Thai baht.

After hearing the news, many capitals attacking the Thai baht stopped one after another, and of course they believed the judgment from the IMF. And with the current scale of their funds, it is difficult to shake tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves in the short term.

And now all this has turned into an "empty city plan" in Harvey's mouth, which of course has caused a great shock to almost all the top executives of the Tiger Fund. They would never have imagined that the officials of a country's central bank would lie to the outside world, and it was a big lie.

To see if the BOT is lying, you need to look at the BOT's forward position in the forex market. Under the free floating interest rate system, the central bank of a country cannot easily intervene in the fluctuation of the currency value of the foreign exchange market, and naturally cannot actively participate in the operation of the foreign exchange futures market. Although the Thai baht is not a free-floating currency, it is not possible for BOT to operate directly in the forward market, but only through accounts with other commercial banks.

Nature. BOT will not operate through foreign exchange banks, but can only operate through domestic banks. The positions of local banks in these forward contracts should not be shown on their balance sheets, as most of them are listed companies that are required to disclose their financial status to the public on a regular basis.

After hearing Julian Robertson's rhetorical question, Harvey thought for a moment before nodding heavily.

"Then it's up to you to take care of it!" Julian Robertson immediately said, his tone full of non-doubt, "Also, before the results of the investigation come out." Our position on the Thai Baht remains the same. It's not just the same. We also need to consider the possibility of further increases, and the funds will be withdrawn from the treasury bond market. ”

Investing in Treasuries is one of the safest ways to invest, so most hedge funds have placed heavy positions in the Treasury market, coupled with good liquidity. Therefore, when a large amount of money needs to be used within the fund. It is also possible to raise the corresponding funds in the first time.

Julian Robertson Zuihou's clapper. Undoubtedly, a final conclusion was drawn to this meeting. After Julian Robertson's words fell, everyone got up and left, and began to prepare for the next stage of the attack on the baht.

……

"Zhong Sheng. Do we still want to short the baht? Although I don't understand that Zhongshi Weishenme did not have the slightest movement in this operation, Andrew knew very well that Zhongshi had borrowed 13 billion baht in January, and this part of the funds has been continuously lent out in the interbank dismantling market to earn a little bit of interest.

"Uh......" Zhong Shi turned his face and looked at Andrew with a smile, "Don't the big celebrities in the financial circle understand it now?" ”

Andrew's face turned red, and then he retorted a little unconvinced: "Aren't you all asking me to say that?" Now it seems that you were right. But I still don't understand, weishenme still holds these baht, is it possible that you really plan to invest in Thailand? ”

"Thailand? Hmph, how is that possible? With this money, I might as well go to the mainland to invest, and now that the rate of return on investment in China is very high, don't you see that the Hong Kong stock market is now very enthusiastic about the factors in the mainland? Zhong Shi sneered slightly, his tone full of disdain.

At this time, Hong Kong was in a "boom" phase of boiling oil and flowers, with the Hang Seng Index between 14,000 and 15,000, and the stocks of red-chip state-owned enterprises turning purple. The capital market is even so crazy that if any third- or fourth-tier junk stock is bought by a red-chip company, regardless of whether the news is true or not, crazy shareholders will immediately push these stock prices up by an astonishing 100% to 200% on the same day.

At the same time, almost 70% of the stocks that rise in the Hang Seng Index every day are red-chip state-owned enterprise stocks. With the surge in the trading volume of these red-chip SOE stocks, the demand for relevant analysts has also increased rapidly, and even the salaries of the best of them will triple or quadruple a year, reaching the level of senior analysts at Tianyu Fund.

Although the market is so crazy, there is an extremely calm attitude towards this kind of fanaticism within the entire Tianyu Fund, and they do not take this kind of pursuit seriously, and even think that it is a false prosperity. Its Hong Kong funds have begun to reduce their holdings of Hong Kong stocks and increase their positions in short-term futures indices and warrants.

This is related to the environment in which Hong Kong is facing the return to the motherland, and also benefits from the strong economic growth data of the mainland. In the past few years, under the governance of Zhuge Pavilion, the economy of the mainland has become more and more market-oriented, various reform and opening up measures have been implemented in an orderly manner, and attracting investment has gradually become the top priority of various local governments. In this environment, companies listed in Hong Kong with domestic capital background have become the favorite of capital.

"Then when are we going to return these baht?" Seeing that Zhongshi had neither the intention of investing nor the idea of reducing his holdings, Andrew naturally thought that Zhongshi might choose to repay the loan after it matured, rather than choosing to roll it over.

Zhong Shi shook his head, denied Andrew's idea, and said slowly in Andrew's puzzled eyes: "We will not repay at this exchange rate level, so we will only lose interest in vain." I'm going to convert this part of the baht into US dollars recently, and make up for it when the baht falls. ”

"And so it was!" Andrew muttered to himself, then came back to his senses, and asked puzzledly, "That weishenme didn't sell some time ago, if we sold it in time." I'm afraid that the baht is already free floating now! ”

It's June 6th, a week after Thailand announced that it had successfully defended the baht, and the baht market is calm, as if nothing had happened a month ago. But Zhong Shi knew that behind this seemingly calm, an undercurrent was brewing that was about to shake the whole Shijie.

"No, we can't do that." Zhong Shi shook his head and calmly analyzed, "Our roots are in Hong Kong, which is too close to Southeast Asia. Political influence should always be taken into account. Those who are far away in the United States, they may not have a way. But we can't. ”

"And, most importantly, they are ahead of the curve and have consumed a lot of Thailand's dollar foreign exchange. I am afraid that there are not many dollars left for them to splurge on. Right now. It's up to us to complete Zuihou's blow! ”

When I say this. Zhong Shi looked at the busy hall of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, where the traders were dressed and ready to start their day's work. No one noticed the presence of him and Andrew, and naturally they would not be heard discussing an attack on a country's foreign exchange system.

Even if someone notices, they will only think that they are chatting, and the traders on the floor will not pay much attention to the nervousness of the executives of these listed companies before the listing.

This is the lobby of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and when the market opens, Zhong Yi will ring the opening bell with other Huade Property executives. This is the practice of the exchange, which means that the listed company will have a very good start here.

The re-listing of Walter Real Estate has attracted the attention of the entire Hong Kong capital market. In January '97, Zhong Shi began to contact investment banks frequently, and finally Macquarie Investment Bank, which had an underwriting fee of 4.9%, won the big order with a total financing amount of 7 billion Hong Kong dollars. Although Da Mo Hong Kong's underwriting rate is lower, it was rejected by Zhong Shi due to his preference.

Originally, due to the existence of interests, Zhong Shi did not plan to let Tianyu Fund enter the basic investors, but later Zhong Zhong returned from the United States, he changed his mind and put Skyline Financial Company into the ranks of basic investors, and put this part of the share in Zhong Xiaohui's name. Zhong Xiaohui, who was completely unaware, didn't notice it at all, and she unknowingly became a super-rich person with a net worth of more than one billion Hong Kong dollars.

With the existence of Tianyu Hong Kong Fund, Macquarie Investment Bank once wanted to play its usual tricks when the issue price was finally set, but it was easily recognized by Zhongyi. In the end, Macquarie Bank had no choice but to raise the issue price in disgrace, and finally set the price of the new shares at the level of HK$20 per share.

Investment banks are like this, they have a much closer relationship with the fund side than with the listed company side, so although the investment banking department wants the higher the issue price, the better, while the sales department wants to lower the issue price, leaving a part of the profits to the underlying investors, which creates a contradiction. This is also the deep reason why a well-known online bookseller in Weishenme fell out with the underwriter shortly after it went public.

It is precisely in order to prevent investment banks from playing tricks in this process that Zhong Shi put Tianyu Hong Kong Fund on the list of basic investors. Sure enough, after Macquarie's trick was discovered, the final issue price was much higher than the previous offer, which also made Huade Real Estate enter the ranks of tens of billions of groups in one fell swoop.

The re-listed Huade Real Estate has also been included in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index. If such a behemoth cannot be put into the constituent stocks, the Hang Seng Index may be questioned by the market for its rationality. As for Huade Real Estate, part of the shares reserved for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in accordance with the weighted ratio.

The re-arranged Zhong Yi will serve as the chairman of the board of directors of Huade Properties, and together with Zhong Xiaohui and Tianyu Hong Kong Fund, he will become the three largest shareholders with a total holding more than 50%. According to this arrangement, the re-listed Huade Real Estate is still firmly in the hands of Zhong Shi, and at the same time, he is not exposed.

Although he felt that something was wrong, Andrew couldn't find a reason to refute for a while, so he could only follow Zhong Shi's gaze to the crowded trading hall, and silently deliberated in his heart about the possibility of attacking the Thai baht.

"Dangdangdang-" At ten o'clock in the morning, the opening time, Zhong Yi, who was full of red light, and several other high-ranking officials, under the instruction of the staff, rang the opening bell of the day with their own hands. As the bell rang, the entire trading floor burst into warm applause. (To be continued......)

PS: It's so deserted during the Qingming season...... I hope you can support a lot, xiexie~