Chapter 20 Spotting the Deception

The most feared situation within the entire Quantum Fund eventually happened, because their reputation in the foreign exchange market, especially in currency attacks, is too great, so when there is a large-scale attack on a country's currency, the market, regardless of the facts, will think that the Quantum Fund is deeply involved, or even played a leading role.

This kind of chasing after the wind and shadows has happened repeatedly since the 92 pound crisis, which was confirmed by Soros himself, and even the 94 Mexican financial crisis, in which the Quantum Fund did not participate in the slightest, was also planted on the heads of Soros and Druckenmiller and others.

Now that this situation is starting to play out across the ocean in Asia, although it is not known how the Thai side "knows" about the so-called hedge fund losses, Jones worries that as the currency crisis continues, the quantum fund will have to be saddled with more black pots.

It is not accurate to say that it is a "black pot", because the Quantum Fund did establish a sizable position in the Thai baht, but their original intention was to attract the attention of the Thai government, and then let them voluntarily choose to depreciate. But apparently, the Thai government sees this as a hostile provocation and has therefore made the opposite of what the Quantum Fund has thought, that is, to fully protect the value of the baht.

It is no longer clear whether this situation is due to the stupidity of the Thai government or the greed of the Quantum Fund. In short, due to the differences in the judgment of the economic situation and the different angles from which the two sides considered the issue, the relationship between the two sides has now evolved into a situation of fire and water.

The quantum fund will not come out and take the initiative to explain anything, because openness and transparency are taboos in the hedge fund industry. Even if they don't have a penny position in the baht, not to mention that they still have a large number of short positions.

When Jones's call came to London, Soros was not as angry as he expected, but said lightly: "I will go to Hong Kong in September, and I will clarify all rumors at that time." ”

In September, there is an annual meeting of Shijie Bank and Shijie IMF in Hong Kong, when Soros intends to make a high-profile appearance and explain to the media the intention of shorting the Thai baht.

It's just that he doesn't know that just two months later, the entire Southeast Asian region has been in chaos, waiting for Soros to explain. He has long been the target of verbal criticism by the people of Southeast Asian countries. Even politicians have spoken harshly about him.

……

At about the same time, a group of Americans waited in front of the TV to watch Savain's press conference, and even though it was late at night EST, the energetic group of traders was still in high spirits. There was no tired look at all. When Sawan spoke of speculative capital losses amounting to $500 million. The traders booed loudly in unison.

"Nonsense. I really don't know how this guy became an official of the central bank! Immediately, there were voices questioning Sawan's professionalism.

"He's probably still in the 80s, no, maybe the 70s......," another voice immediately chimed in. It immediately caused a commotion among the traders.

"Jimmy, I think you're good enough to take on this role!" A senior trader turned around to find a junior trader still staring at the computer screen, and couldn't help but walk over and pat him on the shoulder, teasingly.

His name is Harvey. Capek is a senior trader in charge of emerging markets, and East Asia is one of his jurisdictions. Recently, his department just recruited a rookie researcher named Jimmy. Hudson is usually responsible for buying and selling coffee, delivering documents, and organizing data, which are tedious and do not have much jishu content.

"What?" Jimmy looked up and asked rhetorically, a little puzzled.

Seeing that he was so uninteresting, the person who spoke couldn't help but pout, and was about to turn away, when he heard the trader named Jimmy whisper, "Hey, something is wrong!" ”

"What's wrong?" Harvey stopped what he had just taken, glanced sideways at Jimmy, and saw that his face did not look like he was joking, so he lowered his head and leaned in front of the computer screen, looked at it, and found that there was nothing special, and asked casually.

"Look!" Jimmy quickly tapped the computer keyboard, typed in a command, sifted through the many data bars, and pointed to Harvey, "This is the statistics of the increase in the Thai baht contract in the Singapore market from January to June, all from public data sources. Since January, Hong Kong's HSBC, Standard Chartered, the United States' Chase, and Japan's Nomura Securities have all increased their holdings of bearish Thai baht forward contracts, totaling about 1,897 lots. ”

"And then?" After hearing this number, Harvey's heart moved, thinking that this was a rare generosity, and he didn't know if he had continued to hold it until now, after all, it had been so long.

"No, they're not reducing those positions." Jimmy seemed to sense Harvey's thoughts, and slowly shook his head in denial, "It's strange that these positions haven't been reduced here. On the contrary, it has recently increased its holdings quite a bit, and it is approaching the total number of contracts with a total of 2,000 lots. ”

"HSBC, Standard Chartered, Nomura?" Harvey repeated these three names a few times, and asked to himself: "The focus of these investment banks is in Asia, both Hong Kong and Tokyo, and I don't see any connection." No, could it be that funds from Hong Kong and Japan have long been eyeing the Thai baht? ”

"Quite possibly!" Jimmy nodded, "And there is no news in the market about Asian capital shorting the Thai baht, either these capital are not from Asia at all, or they are extremely well guarded, and there is no rumor at all." ”

Although not watching TV, Jimmy apparently already knows what is going on. His first reaction was that Asian capital was so terrible, and its influence on public opinion was so great that it was leaky, which made his young heart, who had lived in a free public opinion environment since childhood, tremble a little.

"No, no, no......" Harvey suddenly spat out a series of negative words, as if he disagreed with Jimmy's opinion. Jimmy was stunned, looking at the excited Harvey in confusion, and for a moment he didn't understand what he was denying.

It was only after half a day that Harvey's eyes refocused on his mind, apparently trying to understand something. I saw him slap Jimmy on the shoulder and boast loudly, "Good boy, you really have you!" Without looking back, he ran upstairs.

Due to the large number of people in the trading room, there are several large rooms downstairs dedicated to them, while the upstairs space is for senior managers, i.e. those fund managers and senior traders who are qualified to manage their funds.

As soon as he pushed the door open, Harvey found that the conference room was full of people, apparently the managers were in a meeting to discuss the Thai side's statement. As is customary, traders can participate in such meetings and fully express their opinions. However, since they are responsible for investing in different regions and different instruments, traders do not randomly participate in meetings of other groups.

Looking through the translucent glass, Harvey found that in addition to Julian Robertson, there were several economists and strategists from Tiger Fund and several analysts who are good at macroeconomics, and he knew that they were discussing the statement of the Thai side just now.

Fearing that they would make some decision before then, Harvey pushed the opening wall, only to find that there was no discussion in the room, and instead there was silence.

Julian Robertson was annoyed, in fact he was a guy who was afraid of the world, and he had always been jealous of Soros's reputation and status on Wall Street, and he was also jealous that he had managed his money on a scale that had always surpassed himself. Although in 93 he succeeded in forcing the franc to expand its volatility range together with other capitals, it still seemed to be a little insufficient compared to Soros, who defeated the pound.

And now, the Thai side only named the Quantum Fund and did not mention his Tiger Fund, which made him very unhappy. You must know that this kind of fame can attract more investors for him to a large extent. Under the temptation of such interests, what can you do to offend a small country that does not know 108,000 miles away?

"Julian, let's retreat, the Thai side still has so many foreign exchange reserves, and the attitude is tough, we shouldn't fight them anymore!" One of the senior partners said slowly, what he didn't say was that they had lost a lot of money in recent times to keep their positions open.

Robertson turned his head to look at the crowd and saw that many of them nodded, apparently agreeing with what they had just said. According to the information he received from Druckenmiller, the Quantum Fund had cut its position quite a bit, which apparently made him shake a lot.

But Julian Robertson was not about to give up, and his position could continue to support himself after he exited the futures market, even though the interest is now in the staggering millions of dollars per day. It's just that he can't convince the other people at the moment, so he is in a dilemma for a while.

That's why Harvey just entered the conference room and found it silent. At this time, he couldn't care about what the reason was, and after clearing his throat, he said loudly: "We can't give up our position in the Thai baht, the Thai side may not have so many foreign exchange reserves!" ”

"Do you know what you're talking about?" Julian Robertson was the first to react, looking at the senior trader with an incredulous expression, and there was some reproach in his tone.

"I know exactly what I'm talking about, Mr. Julian." Harvey straightened his back and replied loudly. At this time, he was calm and unhurried, his eyes exuded amazing confidence, and there was no timidity or concession under Julian's oppressive eyes, and he was completely confident.

At this time, Harvey only felt that this could be the highlight of his life!

As soon as the words came out, everyone was shocked, and everyone was waiting for Harvey's next words.

Harvey nodded in satisfaction, and then said something that surprised everyone even more: "I think the Bank of Thailand has deceived us." No, it wasn't just that he deceived us, but he deceived all shijie! (To be continued......)