054 Herd effect
"So if we want to succeed in this market, we all have to keep a sense of reverence for the market."
"We must always be aware of risk and remind ourselves that the market cannot rise forever, the higher it rises, the greater the risk, the more cautious it is, and lock in profits while increasing the take profit level."
"At the same time, successful investors in this market tend to split their positions, but most of them are overly greedy and bet all their hopes on one stock. As a result, everyone knows, it was miserable, why is this happening? Because of overconfidence. ”
There was silence in the audience.
They are all listening carefully, combined with their own psychology in the process of operation, carefully experiencing and feeling.
Zhou Ying took a sip of tea and paused deliberately, so that the classmates had time to reflect.
Then he continued: "In the process of participating in the market, retail investors or some institutional investors will not only show overconfidence just mentioned, but sometimes they will go to the other extreme, that is, regret and disgust! ”
"Retail investors in the market, most of them, including our classmates, have had this kind of situation when they buy and sell stocks."
"For example, if you fancy a stock, the original price was 20 yuan, but you didn't expect it to start falling on the same day or the next day after buying, until it fell to 18 yuan, a decline of 10%, you see that the trend has not stabilized, and there is the possibility of continuing to fall, you can't hold on, so you sell."
"But after selling, it began to rise on the same day or the next day, and you didn't dare to buy it at the beginning, and when it rose to 19 yuan, you said that you would wait until it fell to the position you sold and then buy, and it may really call back to 18 yuan again, but you were worried that it would continue to fall, so you didn't buy it, and you had to wait and see, but I didn't expect it to rise again the next day, and it rose to 20 yuan, and you began to regret it a little, 'Why didn't you buy it earlier?' But then I thought, if it goes up again, I will buy it quickly, but I didn't expect that you fell as soon as you bought it at 21, and then you began to have a disgust again, 'Buy and fall, it's really unlucky!' ’。 ”
"That is, in such a process, you have feelings of regret and disgust at the same time."
"When the general trend of the market or individual stocks have fallen for half a year or even more than a year, when most shareholders lose more than 40%, more than 90% of shareholders may be reluctant to look at stocks, and even have an aversion to this market. Like a lot of shareholders at the current stage, that's it. ”
"Continuous decline, loss, big loss, don't play! I regretted that I came to this market and began to dislike stocks, so I cut my flesh out of the market and even uninstalled the stock software. How ruthless you say! ”
There was another burst of laughter from the audience.
"However, it is often at this time, when the stock market or individual stocks are about to bottom, that most of the participants in this market leave the market near the end of the bear market. Actually, it's quite sad to say. ”
"Why? Excessive pessimism, disgust and frustration can affect one's own thinking, which is also a common investment mindset, so you sell stocks on the floor. ”
"Stockholders want to make money in the stock market, but there are few people who rely on their own efforts to find the cycle of the stock market and grasp the law of the rise and fall of the stock market and the conversion of the bull and bear market. Therefore, there are always a few people who make money in the stock market, and most of them are losses, because most people like to follow the herd, and the 'herd effect' in the stock market is unavoidable."
Hearing Zhou Ying mention the "herd effect", some students also knew about the herd effect before, but they wanted to hear Zhou Ying's opinions, so they said:
"Mr. Zhou, in the specific trading process, how to use the 'herd effect'?"
Zhou Ying smiled on stage and said:
"To use the 'herd effect' to trade, you first have to know what the herd effect is."
"Zhang Yuanyi, you are the main trader of the school's listed company, can you talk about the herd effect?"
Zhou Ying said by name.
The classmates all looked back at Zhang Yuanyi.
"Uh......" Zhang Yuanyi stood up and thought, I listened very seriously, why was I named? But such a problem is a small case.
"The herd effect, which refers to the fact that people are often influenced by the majority and follow the thoughts or behaviors of the masses, is also known as the 'herd effect'. People will follow what the masses agree and will not think about the meaning of the event. ”
Zhang Yuan began to talk eloquently.
"In economics, the 'herd effect' is often used to describe the herd mentality of economic individuals."
"We all know that a flock of sheep is a disorganized group, and a flock of sheep, even when they are together, is blindly rushing left and right. But as soon as one of the sheep moves, the others rush forward without thinking, regardless of whether there is fertile grass or a dangerous wolf in front of them! Therefore, the 'herd effect' is a metaphor for people's herd mentality, and the herd mentality can easily lead people to blind obedience, and blind obedience often makes people easy to fall into deception or failure. ”
When the fat man heard this, he gave a thumbs up, which means that you are really good!
The other students also nodded their heads in agreement with Zhang Yuanyi's point of view.
"The herd effect is also reflected in a lot in life, for example, when I go to a conference and everyone else is wearing formal clothes, and I wear a tracksuit alone, it will feel unnatural, I feel like I'm different, I feel a little silly, and I will have the idea that I want to wear a suit too. This is a herd mentality. ”
Zhou Ying smiled on the stage, thinking to herself, this kid will also take an example, and he is speechless, but it is quite appropriate.
"When it comes to the stock market, when the market is falling continuously, especially when the decline is accelerating, the psychology of most retail investors is like this: everyone else is selling, I will also sell, and not selling is alternative and abnormal. This is the herd effect. ”
"Especially when the market is declining, many people are often selling stocks, and panic markets follow the trend and flee, no matter what the market is doing now or in the future? Anyway, if you sell it, I'll sell it. If I am trading, when it falls to a certain extent, I can take advantage of a law in the market, everyone panics that I am greedy, everyone sells, it is very easy to buy, and it is easy to buy cheap chips, so the trader should use the panic of retail investors to absorb chips, or can create panic to absorb chips! ”
"When the stock market rises, everyone is buying, crazy buying, so as to push the stock price up, when the stock price rises wildly, rising rapidly, everyone is excited, people are prone to a herd mentality, you buy me also buy, not buy is abnormal. This herd mentality can also lead to irrational investment behavior. Then as a trader, you should take advantage of everyone's fear of not being able to buy the psychology to distribute chips and lock in profits! Because it's so easy to sell at this time! ”
"Forehead......" Xu Xiaofeng's eyes changed when he looked at Zhang Yuanyi, this guy really has the potential to be a trader! Ruthless, really ruthless!