053 Overconfidence

"For example, a retail investor, seeing such a continuous rise in the market, this stock has been rising, is watching it rise, looking at it, it has been rising for many days, because it has been rising in the past, so I believe he will rise."

So he went in on impulse, who knew that he would pull back as soon as he entered, and at this time he would still be largely affected by the continuous rise thinking in the past, thinking that the stock would still rise, so he kept holding it. I didn't get the deep quilt until I started crawling forward, and then I had to pretend to be dead. ”

There was a burst of laughter from the audience.

"Have any of us who are training traders pretending to be dead?"

There was laughter again.

Looking at the smiling faces of the classmates in the audience, Zhou Ying continued:

"This is because this retail investor stays in the old thinking and does not look forward, so there is a lack of assessment of future returns and risks. This is the fate of most retail investors in this stock market. ”

The fat man sighed when he heard this, and thought to himself, if he hadn't followed his brother, would he have been such a fate?

Zhang Yuanyi thought about the thoughts of little Zhang Yuanyi before he was reborn, even though he studied a stock-related major, isn't it the same?

"Let me ask you two questions: Question one, two stocks with the same profit, one with a large risk and one with a small risk, which one will you choose?"

"Of course, choose the one with less risk," the audience almost said in unison.

"The second question is: between two stocks with the same risk, one with a large profit and the other with a small profit, which one will you choose?"

After the audience finished speaking, many students near the seats looked at each other and smiled.

"I don't need to say the answer, everyone knows it," Zhou Ying said with a smile.

"However, in the actual market, most of our retail investors have abandoned this option."

"Always choose the one with a lot of risk and a little profit."

"Won't it?" Some classmates questioned it.

But when I think about what I did, it seems to be true.

"We know that the more it rises, the greater the risk, and the more it falls, the more opportunities it contains, and the more valuable it is."

If a stock has reached 50% from its high, or even a larger proportion, many people will have a sense of fear of this stock and dare not invest in this stock anymore, because there is fear, thinking stuck in the process of being trapped in the past and falling, and I believe that 90% of people have such thoughts. ”

"Just like the current period of the market, the more it falls, the more confidence is lost, many people think that the stock market is finished now, and there is no fun to play, and people who sing long at the current stage are easy to be considered a big fool."

Hearing this, Zhang Yuanyi and Xu Xiaofeng couldn't help but smile bitterly, isn't it, some time ago, they were scolded for making a big fool because they made remarks that the stock market was about to rise in the future.

"There are always a lot of people who leave the stock market during the bottoming phase, and there are a lot of people who are stuck near the end of the bull market at the top of the bull market. It is because of being anchored in the thinking of the past that the correct judgment of the future opportunities and risks of the stock market is lost. ”

Zhou Ying took a sip of water, paused, and continued:

"How to deal with anchoring thinking in the stock market? We all know that the stock price is an expectation of the future, the more the stock rises, the risk will slowly accumulate, accumulate to a certain extent, the trend of the stock price rise will be reversed, the same situation will appear in the process of falling, the more the stock falls, the greater the fall, the longer the fall, the risk will be smaller and smaller, but is not the more you fall, the more you buy? Then it is safe to wait for the downward trend to reverse before doing it. The most important thing in buying and selling stocks is safety"

Zhou Ying is not only explaining the investment psychology of stockholders, but also talking about her understanding of the trend in the stock market.

It seems that Mr. Zhou is also a trend investor, Zhang Yuanyi secretly thought in his heart that some views are consistent with his own ideas.

Why should we buy a stock? When you first buy a certain stock, you must look at a certain aspect of it, such as good performance, or good trend, or good news......

But how many participants in this market will have their own stock selection ideas? Not to mention having your own operating ideas, do you plan to do short-term or medium-term? Not much thought through.

When selling a stock, how many people have to choose to sell because the stock has reached the target profit or stop loss level, or the trend has changed significantly?

Buy because the trend is getting better, and sell because the trend is getting worse.

This kind of buying and selling thinking is the most ideal investment model, but most investors often fail to do this.

Many retail investors always want to sell when they see that they have just earned 2,000 yuan in their stock account, or they want to run away after losing 1,000 yuan, and as a result, they make the medium-term ticket into a short-term ticket.

Some investors are still looking forward to a rebound after reaching the stop loss level, but they are reluctant to sell the money lost in the account, and as a result, the short-term ticket is finally made into a medium-term and long-term ticket.

In the process of participating in the market, too many investors have forgotten their original intention when buying stocks, and their eyes on stocks only stay on the account and their own psychological tolerance, not using utility maximization, but using emotional maximization.

As a result, the bull stock can't hold it, or the shallow set is reluctant to stop the loss and finally becomes a deep set.

How many people, when buying stocks, always think that the stock will rise when they buy it, and it will rise if it rises, and it still keeps rising, and it should not be called back, nor can it be called!

Emotions and emotions are maximized, and some immediate gains and losses often affect the established plans and ideas, and the ability to judge the future value and expectations of stocks is also lost, and psychology is constantly influencing investment behavior.

Zhang Yuanyi was thinking about it, thinking out of his mind.

Zhou Ying's coughing sound on the stage brought Zhang Yuanyi to the lecture again.

"A successful shareholder will often make the right investment behavior according to the established plan, and will not be affected by short-term changes in thinking."

Zhou Ying's thinking was very clear, and everyone listened attentively.

"Successful investors trust their own judgment, unless there is a reversal."

"Actually, self-confidence is something we should have in everything we do."

"But it is precisely because of self-confidence, or overconfidence, that most retail investors finally fail in this market."

"For example, the market is going up, the stocks are going up, the situation is good, and the stocks you buy make a lot of money. At this time, many investors will unconsciously think that they are successful investors, 'I am the god of stocks!' So I began to be complacent, which is also an extension of the anchoring effect, stuck in the past successes. ”

The audience burst into laughter.

"At this time, because they can't understand themselves correctly, there are many retail investors who can't objectively analyze stocks and markets. Start investing all your belongings, which often happens at the end of the market or at the peak of the stock, and enter the market with everything you have, only to backfire and lose everything. ”

"That's why people jump off buildings just after the bull market is over."

"Overconfidence can lead to a lack of calm, blaming the market rally all to your own success, and getting carried away."