The so-called warm winter naturally refers to a warm winter.

After entering the winter, the cold air from northern Canada enters the United States from the long border between the United States and Canada, including Chicago, Boston, New York and other large cities are the targets of its impact, and even the snow may reach more than one meter in some places, at this time, the demand for natural gas, which is one of the heating energy sources, will naturally double, and the price will also rise.

In the same way, when the winter is no longer so cold, the demand for natural gas is naturally not so strong, and according to the demand theory, although its price will also rise, it will certainly not be comparable to the price in the colder winter.

According to the analysis and judgment of the meteorological numbers over the years, Conrad was stunned to come to the conclusion that this winter is very likely to be a warm winter, and his professional acumen made him immediately realize that if it was a warm winter, between September and October, and March and April next year, this seasonal turning point would not be so drastic, and the current difference between the two would be greatly reduced, so ......

Thinking of this, Conrad didn't dare to continue to think about it, he only felt that one of his hearts was pounding uncontrollably. In order to hide his shock, he picked up the cup in front of him and poured it violently, who didn't want to drink too quickly, the next moment he was choked, accidentally spilled coffee on the white shirt, he quickly took out a tissue to wipe it, and was in a hurry.

"If it's really a warm winter, then wouldn't we have a chance of success?"

After a lot of hard work, Conrad finally cleaned the stain from his chest. Of course, the juice was washed away, and there was still a soaking the size of a bowl on the shirt. But at this time, he didn't care so much, and hurriedly asked John. Arnold, hoping to clear up the doubts in his heart.

"Just yesterday, I just met with a meteorologist."

John. Arnold smiled, pulled out the humidor from his desk, took one out and sniffed it under the tip of his nose, a look of intoxication on his face, and then took out the silver scissors. After carefully cutting off the sections. After lighting a special match and slowly roasting it on the flame ignited by the sulfur for a few moments, the cigar was fully aromatized before taking a satisfying puff.

Watching Arnold finish this qiē slowly and methodically. Conred's heart was as uncomfortable as a cat's scratch. He was curious to know what the next paragraph Arnold was talking about. But he didn't dare to disturb the boss to enjoy the cigar, so he could only wait silently.

"This is a senior meteorologist at NASA who has been tracking cold air movements for 20 years. I had a good relationship with him when I was at Enron. It's not an exaggeration to say that we are old friends. At NASA, he is the head of the climate change department, and he has at least three satellites on hand to track climate change in North America around the clock. ”

After waiting a few more minutes, Arnold finally spoke up again, explaining the meteorologist's background, before moving on to the real point: "This summer's hurricane situation was simulated by their latest climate model, and it turned out to be quite accurate. And their other latest weather model also gives the conclusion that this year is very likely to be a warm winter, and the probability is quite high, 89.24%. ”

"It is with the support of these numbers that I dare to fight with the withered flowers with confidence. Prior to this, he had revealed that the probability of a warm winter this year was about fifty percent, and at that time I had already moved the relevant thoughts, but the momentum of not withering flowers at that time was too fierce, so I could only keep a low profile. But now it's different, with the support of a few jù, plus there is another force entangled with the other party, which attracts most of the firepower, so I can confidently and boldly short. ”

After exhaling a choking puff of smoke, Arnold's expression finally relaxed completely, and the smile on his face could be felt by anyone who seemed to be truly from the heart.

"I didn't expect the boss to do so many things in private, no wonder he can stand in the natural gas market for a long time." After Conrad on the side heard this, his face changed, but he was secretly speculating in his heart. Previously, his old employer, the Muyan Fund, only hired a few meteorologists as outsourced consultants, consulted them when necessary, and usually hung them up high, not taking it seriously at all. And when he arrived at the Withering Fund, he was surprised to find that the research department of this fund covers almost every corner of the natural gas industry, including from the upstream extraction industry, engineering technology to downstream pipeline transportation, destination and use, and other fields There are specialized researchers, and they are or have been the top in this field, and even the meteorological consultants are active personnel of NASA.

"I now have a question, why does the other person know about these things? You know, it's taken me a lot of effort to get these things, and I'm sure there's no other person besides me who can do such a detailed study, not even the withered Bond. Hunter can't, but why can't Hu? ”

After relaxing for a moment, Arnold suddenly thought of something, sat up straight again, and said with a frown, as if he was asking himself, and as if he was asking Conred.

"This ......"

Conrad pondered for a moment before he said uncertainly, "Did they judge from the fundamentals?" Or is it from an investor that the position of the fund is too large? You must know that when the position is too large, it is easy to become the target of others. ”

"Perhaps!" Arnold thought about it and thought about it, but he still couldn't come up with a convincing answer, but he quickly figured it out, and then laughed dumbly, "Anyway, now I'm in the same camp as him, and the goal is the same, so why care so much about what the other party thinks." This qiē, wait for the market shape to be completely clear, and then analyze it! ”

Conrad thought for a moment and nodded silently.

……

"Damn, who the hell is this. Taking advantage of this time to suppress the spot price is simply sticking a knife in my ribs! ”

In the Calgary office, not long after the market closed, traders gathered in the cramped office again, but this time the atmosphere was completely different. In the past day, the gains in the previous day's natural gas contracts have been swallowed up and slightly lowered, which means that the traders of the non-withered fund have worked in vain.

The problem is not limited to this, they also found a group of opponents who were specifically against them in the heavy position month, and after two or three trading days of fierce fighting. Those who don't wither the flowers are stunned to find out. The other party's financial strength is not inferior to them, and even once had the upper hand, if not for Bond. Hunter decisively gave up on the decision to guard the near moon, and I am afraid that their losses will now be much larger.

Yes. The hedging position of the non-withered fund has already incurred a loss.

And just when they were guarding the Far Moon position with all their might. Another unknown force has quietly appeared in the near-month contract. Almost recklessly suppressing the price of natural gas futures, this has kicked the already stretched non-withered fund again, so Bond. Hunter roared out loud and almost out of shape.

For his doubts. Naturally, no one was able to answer. The traders looked at each other, not even daring to take a breath of air, and it was clear that this was not the time to speak.

After five minutes of swearing, Bond. After Hunter swept away the gloom in his chest, he regained his composure and said to a bunch of harrowing traders, "Alright, guys, cheer up." So far, we've not done much, have we? ”

This sentence finally lifted everyone's spirits a little, of course, a large part of the reason for this is because of Bond. Hunter's anger.

"This time it was indeed my negligence, I didn't expect that at this time, such a strong opponent would appear!" Point a Marlboro, Bond. Hunter said to himself, "But don't you worry, we haven't experienced many similar situations?" If nothing else, we've been through a billion dollar losses, but haven't we survived? ”

"Although the current shape is not in our favor, we only need to defeat the opponent of the far moon, and then we have a lot of time left to deal with the opponent of the near moon. However, just in case, our front-month position needs to be gradually reduced to avoid further losses. ”

In the past two days, the non-withered fund has smashed out more than 200 million US dollars of margin on the far month arbitrage contract, and the newly opened position is enough to be able to open the contract price difference of these two months by a grade if it is in normal times, but now the situation is fundamentally different, the other party does not show weakness at all, almost how many new positions they have opened, the other party will take as much as they want, and there is no sign of depletion of funds at all, which makes Bond. Hunter felt a little weak.

However, he still has a lot of confidence in the final victory.

Although he had just received $1 billion from headquarters, in just the past two days, Hunter had spent more than $300 million on his near-month to far-month positions, a speed that even he felt staggering, although some of it was entered into the position as additional margin to maintain the position, which could be withdrawn at any time.

"Also, let people let out the wind in the market, let's just say that this year's winter will come very early, and it will be very cold, especially because of that...... El Niño, yes, that's the phenomenon, the destruction of the ozone layer in the atmosphere or something, in short, the more esoteric it is, the more technical terms are used, the better. ”

"Also, when I went to put the news again, it said that there was a problem with the pressure of the natural gas transportation pipeline in Tennessee, and it was suspected that there was a leak in the natural gas pipeline somewhere. Yes, it's rumors like that, God, how nice it would be if there was an explosion on the gas pipeline in any city at this time! ”

Patted on the head, Bond. After pondering for a moment, Hunt quickly thought of several rumors that might upset the market price, and although these rumors would be confirmed quickly, he had to go to the doctor at this time.

However, what he said in the end was so unbelievable that the other traders were clearly taken aback, albeit by casual remarks. Yes, if there is news of an explosion on a gas pipeline or even a gas company, it will definitely have a violent impact on the market, but where would they really dare to do such a thing?

Looking at everyone's faces, Bond. Hunter smiled reluctantly and said, "Relax, guys, I don't dare do this, I just hope this happens at this time." Alright, guys, let's do what we were told, and this time we must show our opponents how good we are! ”

Everyone nodded in unison, and soon went about their work.

It's just that no one expected that just when these traders were publishing false news through their own channels, a professional meteorological magazine published the news that this year was very likely to be a warm winter the next day, and suddenly the withered fund was thrown into the abyss from which it could never be recovered. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friends cpower and Xiaoqi Civilization Miracle for voting for the monthly ticket!