Over the next few trading days, rumors surged into the market, including a gas pipeline leak somewhere in the United States, what could be the coldest winter of the year, and a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico. These messages affected the table of natural gas prices for a certain extent, but the utility of these news was only a flash in the pan in the market, and they quickly disappeared without a trace, and the price did not change fundamentally.

From August 31, the price of natural gas faced another 3.66% decline, and then began to hover between 6.1 and 5.8. It must be noted that compared with the highest price of 8.61 at the end of July and early August, this price is undoubtedly more rational, because it is close to October and there is no threat of hurricanes, so it is inevitable that natural gas prices will fall at this time.

But not everyone thinks that the current gas price is normal, at least not those who gamble on the far month position. In the past few days, the two sides have continued to compete in the market, and both sides have almost made a bloody investment, and as of September 14, the two sides have opened at least 15,000 new positions, with a total investment of more than 1.5 billion US dollars. And even so, the two sides still failed to suppress the opponent on the far moon, and the two sides were still in an evenly matched situation.

In the recent month market, after the initial raid, Sagittarius Asset Management did not dare to continue such a large-scale attack, after all, they also feared that they would be investigated by the SEC, although there are usually nine times out of ten cases of futures price manipulation. But the Sagittarius company is not willing to take that risk.

Although they did not continue to build positions in the market on a large scale, Sagittarius did not relax its suppression of front-month contracts in the slightest, and they had good reasons to short the September and October contracts, as this is in line with seasonal price fluctuations, and they even prepared a detailed operational strategy to explain to the SEC if necessary, just in case.

In this stalemate, there is an undercurrent, and both the side that is the market hegemon and the side that secretly snipes at them have invested a lot of money. The natural gas position of the Withering Fund surged to 98,400 lots during this time, and these are open lots. It is involved in the months of 0609, 0610, 0703, 0704 and so on. The heavy positions are on 0703 and 0704, and the position is the arbitrage combination of 82500, while the rest of the arbitrage portfolios are only a very small part except for most of the arbitrage combinations in September and October.

In addition to these futures positions. The Withered Fund also has a small option position. However, these options positions are only one addition to the current market. Because it is an arbitrage relationship, their combination is mainly 0703 put options and 0704 long options, which can be regarded as a risk hedge for their huge positions.

And the other end. Leading the sniper fund of the withered flowers, it is basically Zhongshi's funds that are leading the attack. During this time, they absorbed more than 10,000 new positions, and it was precisely when they were under most of the pressure that other funds dared to enter the market to take over other positions, otherwise these funds would have been defeated by the withered fund.

Although the spread between the 0703 and 0704 contracts has narrowed to around $1.8 so far, and according to Bell Stone's estimates, the Withered Fund has lost at least $100 million to $200 million, but these are simply not enough to cause fatal damage to the Withered Fund. And it was at this time that the turning point of fate finally arrived!

The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is responsible for providing weather, water temperature and climate forecasts and warnings to the United States and its possessions, adjacent waters and oceans to protect life, property and the nation's economy.

NWS has at least nine national support centers to provide meteorological support to local sub-stations across the United States, including national environmental forecasting, climate forecasting, environmental modeling, marine forecasting, aviation meteorology, hydrometeorology, space environment, storm forecasting, hurricane forecasting, tsunami forecasting, and more.

This time, in their publication "Meteorological Prediction", a new type of meteorological prediction model was originally introduced, which combined the number jù monitored by NASA's latest penetrating infrared detector from outer space and the climate number jù monitored by NWS in Maryland, and put it into the latest meteorological computer to simulate and evaluate, and the accuracy of the final conclusion was 12.47% higher than that of the previous evaluation and simulation system.

The market doesn't care how advanced the model is, how many jù it can accommodate, etc., they care about what conclusions the latest model can draw. Because this conclusion affects the price of various energy sources in a certain way, not only natural gas, but also oil.

In this publication, there is no shortage of places that will interest the market. In fact, while introducing this latest meteorological model, NWS experts used this model to analyze various meteorological numbers jù since the beginning of this year, and it is said that after repeated tests, meteorologists compared the results of the historical number jù and concluded that this winter is very likely to be a warm winter.

The contents of this publication, which is usually published on the 15th, began to circulate in a small area after the close of the 13th. Although it is said that "the sky is unpredictable", with the increasing development of modern technology, the weather has begun to be predicted in many cases, although this prediction is most accurate in the short term. Because of the "butterfly effect", there is often a big gap between the actual situation and the final real result in long-term weather forecasts.

Nevertheless, this forecast from NWS is enough to convince the market, because they are the absolute authority in the field of meteorology, not only in the United States, but in the whole world. And the market can only refer to their opinions.

"God, is this qiē real? How could it be a warm winter? ”

Not surprisingly, the news also spread to Bond at lightning speed. In Hunter's ears, this time he couldn't help but growl.

Despite the current market downturn. But he found from several exchanges of the far month contract that the other party seemed to be running out of funds. You must know that they have taken a lot of positions at a high level before, and even if they have a small profit now, this is not enough to support them to invest tens of millions of dollars in new positions every day.

According to the analysis during this period, Bond. Hunter has determined that the other party is only about 1 billion funds at most, and in addition to the funds used as additional margin and daily settlement, the funds that can be used are only about 500 million at most, so the reason why he has not been defeated before. This is because the decline in the near-month contract has narrowed the spread of the far-month contract. After the other party makes a profit, it will invest part of the additional margin into the new position, but how long can this kind of behavior be maintained?

Bond. Hunter is confident that in the next few days, he will be able to gather another amount of money to completely defeat his opponent. But at this time. However, rumors of a so-called "warm winter" appeared.

Yes. Hunter is confident that this is definitely a rumor from his opponent, because he has used similar tricks before. And he thinks he's playing too much better than the other party, so when he heard this rumor, he didn't take it too seriously. But then more and more evidence showed that this was not an unfounded rumor, but a message released by an authoritative organization, so he couldn't sit still.

The traders were still hanging their heads, they were used to Hunter's roar, and they knew that it would not help to say anything at this time, and it was better to wait for Hunter to vent his feelings first, and then everyone would work together to figure out a way.

After another half of the day, Hunt's roar finally stopped, and only then did a trader frown and say: "Boss, this news is not necessarily true, even if it is true, it doesn't mean anything, at most we continue to lose a part of it." And once the market price falls to expectations, we continue to trade and close part of the position. "You know what?" Hunter immediately burst into a loud snort, and after immediately silenced the other traders who were about to speak out, he forced himself to suppress the anger in his heart, and pretended to be calm and said, "It's not a problem now, and if things were so simple, I wouldn't be so gaffe." ”

The traders didn't speak, but everyone muttered in their hearts, even if things are simple, do you have times when you don't lose your temper? Of course, such complaints can only be said in their hearts, and they categorically dare not say them.

After calming down a little, Hunter continued: "Can't you still see clearly? Now there are opponents who are working against us and are eyeing our positions. I'm sure we'll be caught up in the slightest bit by the hunters, who will swarm us and tear us apart! ”

"Now the problem has been detached from the fundamentals, look at our positions, how many have not been closed, these are basically impossible to close in the short term, if we are really bitten by them, even if we want to admit defeat, there is no chance. So, all we have to do now is to narrow our position as much as possible. ”

Until this time, Bond. Hunter finally realized that his position was too large and did not turn around at a critical time. But this qiē was caused by his own madness, and when he realized that he might not be able to defeat his opponent, he realized that he had become the target of someone else's hunt.

"So what do we do now?"

"yes, who can absorb such a large position in the short term? We don't even know who the opponent is against us, and even if we want to surrender, we have to know the identity of the other party! ”

"What if the other party doesn't say yes? Do we have to pay a part of the price, and what is this price? ”

……

Although they are well aware that their current positions are too large to turn around, traders are still at a loss when they think of closing their positions. It was only at this time that they were surprised to find that they didn't even know who their opponent was.

"Don't worry, I know who it is, I will communicate with him personally!"

Bond. Hunter waved his hand and signaled that the gossip discussion would stop, and a sarcastic smile appeared on his face, "Don't you know how many giants there are in this market?" In addition to us, there are several other institutions that can be named, and I am sure you are all aware of them. I believe that among them, there are those who are specifically against us, and if I try a little, I will know who the other party really is. At that time, it is enough to close a part of the position at a slight cost. Rest assured, I'm a little sure. ”

"Who is it?" The traders looked at each other, but soon someone thought of a name and blurted out: "John. Arnold, Sagittarius Fund. ”

The conference room, which had been disturbed by the previous disturbances, immediately fell silent when the name was heard, and the eyes of the traders were almost simultaneously turned to Bond. Hunter, hopefully he will be able to give a clear answer.

Although the Sagittarius fund is not as famous as the withered fund, it is not as famous as the genius trader John Brown. Under Arnold's leadership, their record in the natural gas market is also obvious to all, even compared to the withering fund. As peers, unwilted traders have a lot of respect for Sagittarius funds, at least in some ways. So when it comes to the giants on gas, John. Arnold's name was the first to be mentioned.

Meet these anticipatory gazes, Bond. Hunter glanced at it for a moment, then nodded silently. (To be continued......)

PS: I have been writing in a hurry in the past two days, so please forgive me if there are any omissions. The writer will try his best to adjust the state of writing and strive to write well. Now everyone's enthusiasm is starting to be low again, and the author is improving himself at the same time, he also calls on everyone to support more, thank you~