Chapter 14 A huge loss of 640 million in one day
Just do what you say, and when the meeting is over, Bond. Hunter couldn't wait to call John. Arnold's private phone.
"Hi John, this is Hunter, Bond. Hunter. When the call was answered, Bond. Hunter couldn't wait to introduce himself first, he didn't know if the other party had his own number, but at this time, who would care about these small details.
For this opponent who is stronger than himself in the limelight in the natural gas market, John on the other end of the phone. Arnold was naturally familiar with it, but after hearing the other party report his home, he just gave a faint "um" and waited for the other party to continue.
In fact, he had already vaguely guessed the intention of the other party's call, and there was naturally a burst of ecstasy in his heart, but at this time, he naturally would not show it, after all, the winner and defeat have not yet been decided, and he cannot reveal the identity of the sniper in the market.
"Hi man, have you been trading well lately?"
Hearing Arnold's answer, Hunt was undoubtedly a little disappointed, but he quickly adjusted his mentality, first gag, and then said sternly: "Man, I recently got a top-secret news about natural gas extraction technology. I don't know if you're interested in knowing? God, you don't know how many engineers I approached to get this news in order to get this news in my hands. ”
"Really?" Arnold immediately looked interested, his tone was slightly rapid, and his breathing was a little heavier, "Man." Are you telling the truth? I really don't know what progress has been made in mining technology, and my companions and I don't really care much about that. If you really have relevant news, don't bother to say it and share it with you. ”
"Nope! No! No! Hunter saw that the other party was "hooked", so he naturally didn't leak his hole cards lightly, and at this time, after thinking that the conversation had entered the rhythm under his control, he began to slowly guide the topic to the place where he really wanted to express, "Man, this is an epoch-making technological change, if you really let me share it like this." Obviously impossible. You know it too. Friendship is friendship, business is business, these are two different things, if you really want to know. Let's make a price. ”
"Sure enough!" Arnold's mouth turned into a sarcastic smile. Nature. Hunt on the other side of the phone must not have been able to see it, and after a moment of pretended contemplation, Arnold gave a number. "One million, this price to buy a message, it should be enough!"
One million dollars is enough for the top consulting firm in the United States to give a detailed industry report, so this offer can be said to be generous enough and sincere enough.
But Bond. Hunter was not here, so he naturally sneered twice and teased: "A million dollars, my friend, you don't take my news seriously." Frankly, the increase in capacity brought about by this news alone is enough to revolutionize the gas market, you know? Of course, I will never tell you when this technology will be implemented, unless you give a higher price, and I believe that this alone will be enough for you to make a lot of money in the market. ”
"Really?" Arnold was already happy in his heart, but he was still quiet, and after thinking about it, he decided not to break the other party's trick, and decided to continue playing, "Three million dollars, this price is enough to make you satisfied, right?" ”
"Dude, don't tease me, this is at least a piece of news worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and you are simply insulting me by offering this price. Yes, you're definitely insulting me, you're so insincere, I'm going to find someone else, then, goodbye, man! ”
After all that, Bond. Hunter made a gesture to hang up the phone, but his finger was on the button, and he refused to press it down for a long time, naturally waiting for the other party to stay.
Arnold here began to groan, he began to be a little unsure of the other party's intentions, it is really difficult to say whether there is such a thing, and the other party did not mention their current position in the natural gas market from beginning to end, maybe there is really the possibility of cooperation, and hurriedly said: "My friend, don't hang up the phone in such a hurry." Why don't you set a price first, and let me think about it. ”
In fact, he also knows very well that this is the most common trick in negotiations, but in case, if there is really similar news, and once he misses it, I am afraid that the gains outweigh the losses.
"That's business! Man, I have to say, you made a wise choice! ”
I almost couldn't help but press the button to end the call, but as soon as Hunter heard Arnold's words in the microphone, he immediately quickly retracted his fingers, laughed dryly twice, teased a few more words, and finally said sternly: "Man, in fact, I don't have many conditions, compared to your future benefits, it is almost nothing." For the long position in March next year, the short position in April, you help me close 20,000 lots, and this is the price I opened. ”
"What? Let me help you close the arbitrage position combination? At this time, Arnold still didn't understand what the other party's idea was, and he pretended to be surprised and said, "Man, when closing a position can also become a condition of the transaction, I really don't understand what you're thinking." ”
"Man, actually. I used to take arbitrage positions every other month, but then when I learned about this technological revolution, I realized that my position was subject to huge structural risk, so now I urgently need to close some of my positions. Man, can you understand my struggle? ”
Now that we've said that, Bond. Hunter simply stopped hiding, and explained directly to the point, and added a clever sentence at the end, "According to my information, this technology will be officially put into operation in the first quarter of next year, and it is currently in the testing stage. Dude, you should know how to do it! ”
"I see, so it's no wonder why you closed this part of your position!"
John. Arnold's heart was already happy at this time. But the tone still maintained enough calmness to make people not notice the slightest fluctuation of emotion, "According to your inference, it will not only be the price difference between the next month, but even the price of natural gas in the current month will inevitably fall sharply, which is enough to subvert the entire market." ”
At this point, after fully grasping what the situation was, he immediately began to turn against the guest, "But man, you are really unkind. If that's the case, you shouldn't have come to offer me an offer at all. It's that I'm making an offer to you. After all. This is to help you recover some of your losses, and I believe that the difference in price is enough to cover the price I have to pay. ”
"Wow, man, you're shrewd." Bond. Hunter was stunned for a moment. After thinking about it for a long time. Realize that the other party has finally entered his trap. Then he said apologetically, "I'm sorry, my friend. It was all my mistake before. But from now on, we can finally talk openly about cooperation. ”
"As for the position, I believe you should have some of the openings on hand, and if you want, we will close the position at today's market price, but this is obviously unfair to you. In this way, I decided to close the 20,000 contracts with a spread of $0.5, and the price of 10 million is enough to satisfy you, this is my sincerity. ”
Bond. Hunter thinks the price is fair, but John here. Arnold, like a cat whose tail had been trampled, jumped up and complained loudly: "Oh my God, my friend, are you sending the homeless?" $10 million to close so many positions, do you know what we think about this part of the position? You know, the spread is completely contrary to the fundamentals, and even if it hadn't, the difference between the two months would have been enough to make us hundreds of millions of dollars. And you are now using this little price to send us away, is this what you call sincerity? ”
He revealed a lot of things in this sentence, and for the first time admitted on the surface that he was indeed sniping at the position of the Withered Fund. Hunt's offer was a sign of displeasure and clearly did not intend to rest on his laurels.
Got the other man's meaning, Bond. Hunter was silent for a long time, and finally gritted his teeth and made another offer, "Man, $0.8, plus $4 million in cash, $20 million, this price is my bottom line." If not, then I'll take back the deal. ”
The price was doubled all at once, which is not insignificant, but the more this happens, the more it shows the urgency of his liquidation. Naturally, John. Arnold was definitely not willing to use this price to close the position, and after thinking for a moment, he gave an answer, "Man, I'm afraid this price still can't convince me, you must know that I am responsible for investors." But after tomorrow, I think we can sit down and talk about what is the best price. ”
"Why tomorrow?" Hunter, who was already dizzy, subconsciously asked, but the next moment he realized why the other party had to wait until after tomorrow. Because tomorrow, the news of the warm winter will be officially announced, and the price of natural gas futures will inevitably fall sharply, and I will miss such a good opportunity to turn around in vain.
"Why?" John. Arnold's face suddenly showed a sarcastic expression, and the tone of his voice became strange, "Bond, I have a magazine in hand, which is the "Weather Forecast" that will be released tomorrow, and there is a paragraph in it about the temperature forecast for this winter, do you want to know?" If you're wondering, I wouldn't mind having it read to you on the phone! ”
At this point, the irony in his tone was already very strong, Bond. Hunter couldn't hear it, it turned out that after talking for a long time, in addition to perfunctory himself, the other party was completely playing tricks on himself with the psychology of watching a monkey show, which made him feel very humiliated, and hung up the phone after dropping a "fXXk" viciously.
After that, he called several energy fund managers, but the other party either politely declined, or said that he did not have a similar position, etc., and as a result, he was busy. Hunter didn't even reach a deal.
At this point, he had no more to do but sigh. ……
On September 14, affected by the warm winter news, the price of natural gas plummeted in September, from 5.42 at the opening to 4.80, and finally closed at 4.88, and the price of each natural gas contract fell by $0.56, a staggering 10.29%.
On the far month contract, the spread between 0703 and 0704 contracts also shrank sharply because of this news, once reaching $0.74, although it finally fell back to $0.68, but today's spread has narrowed by more than a quarter compared to $2.5 in early September.
The fund's position lost $640 million on this day, the highest loss on the day in the history of the natural gas market. (To be continued......)
PS: I'm sorry it's late today, life is always too busy, and I'm helpless...... By the way, I would like to thank the book friend Hu Wang Daxia and the roaring waster for voting for the monthly ticket!