By the end of May, the weather is getting hotter, and Bangkok, Thailand, on the equator, is entering summer earlier than most other places on Shijie, with temperatures already reaching around 35 degrees Celsius.

Contrary to the hot weather, there is a cool breeze everywhere inside the Bank of Thailand BOT, and several high-powered air conditioners are humming, blowing the cool breeze into the hot trading room.

"Is that sure now?" A dark-skinned, thin-skinned middle-aged man stood in front of a workbench and looked at another person who was rapidly typing on the keyboard, his right hand pressed to the phone, ready to pick it up at any moment.

Although the temperature in the trading room was very low, the person who spoke was still sweating profusely, and after waiting for a long time, he still did not get the answer he wanted. Although he was dissatisfied, he knew that this was not the right time to disturb others, and he still waited patiently.

"Are you sure?" After half a day, there was still no response, he obviously lost his patience, suddenly ripped off the tie on his chest, and asked with some scolding.

"Although it is not yet certain, the short positions in the futures market have been decreasing for three consecutive days, and the most positions have been closed today." After waiting for a long time, the trader who had been typing on the keyboard for a long time helped the heavy glasses on the bridge of his nose before replying without emotion, "Judging from today's market, the Thai baht contract has closed a total of 8,420 hands, and the number of open positions is only 25,704 hands, although it is much higher than the usual trading volume, but it has finally returned to the normal level." ”

The middle-aged man breathed a sigh of relief when he heard this. Patting the trader on the shoulder with satisfaction, he walked out with brisk steps, he also wanted to find out about the trading situation in the foreign exchange market today.

"Half a billion dollars, and most of them are us coming in to buy dollars. Although the value of the currency fluctuates slightly, it is not large, and investors who hold the local currency can rest assured. When the middle-aged man first appeared in the trading department of the spot exchange, he heard a loud voice, and his tone revealed an unconcealable joy.

The middle-aged man nodded, clenched his fists vigorously, and waved it suddenly. "Guys," he shouted. I think we won. ”

When the many traders who had already stood up heard his words, there was a deathly silence at first, and then a moment later suddenly erupted in an earth-shattering cheer.

After this period of apprehension, traders were finally able to put their minds at ease. Since the beginning of the international speculative capital began to attack the Thai baht in a big way. Most of these people have not had a good night's sleep. Although even if the Thai baht defense failed, they can't be blamed. But every trader still feels a great deal of responsibility on their shoulders.

After resisting the frenzied sell-off from the spot market on the 14th and 15th, traders had a faint feeling in their hearts that they were not far from victory. It's just that none of them thought of it. It will take nearly two weeks to confirm the arrival of this day.

After announcing countermeasures against international speculative capital, the BOT and the Monetary Authority of Singapore joined forces to buy Thai baht in the spot market, using more than $8 billion on the 14th, and $6 billion worth of baht on the 15th.

Then the bears, who were unwilling to fail, began to attack the Thai baht futures contract, because it was no longer realistic to borrow the Thai baht and sell it, and only by depressing the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the futures market could the foreign capital invested in Thailand have a continuous panic, and then exchange it into US dollars to flow out, so as to be able to "cooperate with the outside world" and completely defeat the Thai baht.

The two sides have also begun to fight over baht contracts in futures markets such as Singapore, London and Chicago. Although the tour capital once approached the fluctuation range of the Thai baht stipulated by the BOT, because the exchange rate of the spot market was not moved at all, so whenever they suppressed the baht exchange rate from the level of 26 baht to 1 US dollar, there will always be some bears who turned from short to long, and the BOT side always made a move at a critical time to steadily nail the exchange rate level above the level of 26 baht to 1 US dollar.

After several tug-of-wars, the investors could no longer hold on, and began to gradually reduce their positions in futures contracts, while buying Thai baht in the market to repay the loans they had borrowed earlier. With the support of this double force, the value of the baht has risen step by step, and it has been 10% higher than the lowest price, reaching the level of 25.13 baht to 1 US dollar.

Although the form has improved significantly, the staff of BOT did not dare to be careless at all, and continued to stare at the two markets for more than a week, until today they dare to be sure that the international tour capital has really withdrawn.

The thin, middle-aged man had no time to celebrate with the traders, and he had to update the governor on the situation, as well as the finance ministry and even the prime minister's office. And when necessary, he also has an obligation to ventilate to the media.

"So, did they really retreat?" Malagar's face was calm, and he didn't seem to have the slightest mood swing. Sawan was in awe, thinking that Mr. President's cultivation skills were indeed good.

Wichai. Sawan is the dark and thin middle-aged man just now, he is the vice president in charge of foreign exchange at BOT, and he is also a senior staff member of the prime minister, and most of the operations in this campaign to defend the baht were commanded by him.

"Yes!" Although he would love to replace the Malajia, Sawan knows that he does not have the qualifications and the prestige to do so, and even if he is nominated for prime minister, he will still be rejected by parliament, "Now that the trading situation in the main markets has returned to normal levels, although there are still a lot of open futures contracts, in terms of the overall amount, it is not enough to pose a threat to our current foreign exchange reserves." ”

Malagar, of course, knew the ambition of his subordinate, but he didn't care at all, and even hoped that it was Sawan who was currently sitting in his place. To be honest, he couldn't have done a better job in his post, but the Thai economy has gone terribly wrong, and this is clearly not the fault of monetary policy and the central bank.

"In that case, it's up to you to announce it!" The malagarat rubs gently on the temples. Relieves faint headaches. After a long time, he opened his eyes again and said slowly to Sawan, who was still standing on the side.

"What?" Sawan was stunned for a moment, and then a look of surprise appeared on his face. You must know that announcing it to the outside world is a great achievement, and it is also a great opportunity to show his face, he didn't expect Malajia to give him such an opportunity so lightly.

"No problem, I'm going to get the word out!" Afraid that Malajia would regret it, Sawan agreed after understanding it. Seeing that Malagar's eyes were closed again, Sawan walked out of the governor's office with a quick and playful look.

Hearing the door slam shut, Malaka reopened his eyes. A sneer appeared on his face: "What an idiot." I don't know what Mr. Prime Minister likes about him, and he wants such a person to be in charge of the BOT? What a whims! ”

Sawan may not know, but Malaka knows very well that the Thai baht is not out of danger at the moment. It's even more dangerous than it was before it was attacked. The spot market depletes a lot of their foreign exchange reserves. Even worse than the spot market is the forward market. The amount of US dollar money consumed in this market is even greater than that in the spot market, which has a lot of help from Singapore.

In the past May, the BOT has consumed a total of $21 billion in foreign exchange reserves of around $30 billion. It accounts for two-thirds of the country's total foreign exchange reserves. Now the Thai side is only an empty shell, and if there is another such attack, the Thai side is afraid that it will immediately announce a devaluation.

The reason why no one, even the IMF's International Monetary Fund observers, knew about it was because Maraj and his cronies did not add to their balance sheets the depletion of foreign exchange reserves in the forward market. Naturally, it is observed that the Thai side still has a large amount of dollar money, but the reality is quite the opposite.

Only a few people know about this, and this does not include Sawan. The Thai side hoped to discourage the idea of international travel through this concealment, and in fact they did succeed. Among them, the Quantum Fund reduced its position by 500 million US dollars, and the Tiger Fund repaid all the Thai baht borrowings and went all out to operate in the futures market.

However, due to the deterioration of the economic environment, more and more foreign capital has begun to flee, and in this case, Malaka really does not know how long the Thai baht will be able to support it, but it can support it for a while.

Because of the outflow of funds, Malaka is now facing pressure to raise interest rates, because to maintain the stability of the Thai baht, it is necessary to attract funds into Thailand, and interest rate hikes are naturally the most important way to attract capital inflows. But Thailand's current poor financial system no longer allows for aggressive interest rate hikes, which would push the already fragile financial system further to the brink of collapse.

In a dilemma!

The Malagar had already suggested to the prime minister to announce a devaluation at the right time, but it was vetoed by the highest level. The Prime Minister and the Finance Minister agreed that unless foreign exchange reserves are completely depleted, it is unlikely to be actively devalued, as this would minimize political pressure from Southeast Asia's neighbors.

Today, Malagar's resignation is in mind, even though everything looks very good at the moment.

At five o'clock in the afternoon of Bangkok time, BOT's press conference was held in the conference hall, and Sawan, dressed in a new hairstyle, announced with great confidence in front of many TV cameras and microphones: "The attack on the Thai baht by international travel funds has failed, and the value of the Thai baht is stable at present, and there is no risk of depreciation." ”

As soon as the jubilant words were finished, Sawan immediately changed his tone and unceremoniously criticized the international tour capital: "In addition, we warn those who try to attack the baht, especially hedge funds like the Quantum Fund!" Your actions are not as simple as attacking a country's monetary system, but destroying the economic foundation of a country! If you dare to do it again, it won't be as simple as losing $500 million! ”

He went out of his way to point out the hedge fund's losses, a figure that was estimated by their insiders. Of course, some people estimate that it is 300 million US dollars, but who knows the exact number? Sawan is naturally based on a relatively large amount.

These words caused an uproar not only at the scene, but also in front of the audience. Ignoring the discipline of the venue, the reporters crowded in front of Sawan and asked questions about hedge funds.

Compared to the general financial industry, hedge funds have always been shrouded in a shrouded in mystery. Now that there is finally an opportunity to get a glimpse of what is going on, how can these journalists miss it?

……

In Hong Kong, there are many people watching in front of the TV at this time, including Jones, an economist at the Quantum Fund in Hong Kong. He was both surprised and a little angry when he heard Sawan bluntly name the Quantum Fund, because in fact the Quantum Fund had also cut its position in the market, and now all the fingers were pointed at them. (To be continued......)