0877 Grim Reality
On the third day of the National Conference on Population and Development, the group discussed the impressions of the visit and the special report of Xu Haodong, Secretary of the Yunling Municipal Party Committee.
…… The sixth and final day of the National Conference on Population and Development.
In the morning, a vice minister of the Ministry of Population, Resources and Social Security of the People's Republic of China made a report entitled "It is urgent to liberalize childbirth."
The deputy minister said: "...... Comrades, judging from the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population situation is becoming more and more severe, showing a trend of three declines, one rise, and one contraction. ”
"The first is the decline in the birth rate, which was 12.43 per 1,000 in 2017 and 12.95 per 1,000 in 2016."
"The second is the decline in the size of births, with 630,000 fewer babies born in 2017 than in 2016, which is equivalent to 4 percent fewer births."
"The third is the decline in the fertility rate, which was only 1.24 in 2016 and may be around 1.2 in 2017."
"One rise refers to an increasing degree of population ageing. In 2017, there were 240.9 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 17.3 per cent of the total population, of which 158.3 million were aged 65 and above, accounting for 11.4 per cent of the total population. The number of people over the age of 60 and the number of people over the age of 65 both increased by 0.6 percentage points over the previous year. ”
"A contraction refers to the fact that the main population of the economy continues to shrink. Last year, the working-age population between the ages of 16 and 59 was 901.99 million, accounting for 64.4 percent of the total population. In 2016, the working-age population in the country was 907.47 million, accounting for 65.6% of the total population. ”
"Because of the combined effect of the above factors, China's population has formed a pattern of accelerating declining birthrate, intensifying aging, and shrinking of the main economic population, and the prospects are not optimistic."
"The main reason for this problem is the sharp decline in the resources of women of childbearing age who have two and multiple births. Women of childbearing age who were willing to have a second child concentrated in 2016 and the first half of 2017, and in the second half of 2017, the fertility rate of the second child began to decline. ”
"The reasons for this are the difficulty of employment, the high cost of education, medical care, housing, etc., and the low supply of nurseries and kindergartens, which are all important reasons why couples of childbearing age are reluctant to have a second child."
"In the next five years, China's youth population will decrease by about 30 million, and the main economic population will shrink greatly. China is likely to show a faster rate of aging, even faster than countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China, and the proportion is higher. ”
"The acceleration of aging will further increase the pressure on economic growth to slow down, the pension burden will become more and more serious, and the pressure and risks on the fiscal and financial system will also increase."
"In the face of the grim situation, we should study and formulate strategies and policies to promote population development as soon as possible, and we should urgently and completely liberalize childbearing, and cancel the one-child birth system. Family planning personnel shall be resettled by the treasury, and the collection of social maintenance fees shall be abolished, and the past shall not be recovered. ”
"There is no cost to this move, but it is a reform measure to improve the national economy and meet the people's will. For families who have given birth to a second child, individual income tax refunds should be appropriately given, so as to achieve the purpose of encouraging childbirth. ”
"At the same time, the past birth control is an important reason for the formation of the current population pattern, and the state should correct this by establishing voluntary nurseries and kindergartens by the state to reduce and eliminate the opportunity cost of giving up work during childbirth."
"The reform of rural land property use rights, incremental land property rights, and the increase of freshwater to transform land and forest land should be accelerated, and the reform should be completed when the aging of the rural population is not too severe, and the vitality should be brought into play to create and accumulate wealth."
"As the rural population continues to age, the difficulty of reform will greatly increase, and the effect will be greatly reduced. Pension insurance should be centralized and unified as soon as possible to the central collection and management, transfer state-owned assets and income to supplement the pension, and more and more financial revenue may have to be transferred to pensions. ”
"For the elderly in rural areas, improve the rural medical system; The reform of the rural land use property rights system should be promoted as soon as possible, and the state should set up special banks related to rural land assets, so that some rural elderly people can reverse mortgage their land for their retirement. ”
"In short, we must take precautions and study and design the pension source model of the country, family, individual, asset and other combinations as soon as possible, so as to prevent the emergence of a huge gap in pensions that will affect the stability of the fiscal and financial system."
Finally, the vice minister suggested that the meeting should produce an official report, which should be submitted to the Central Committee and the State Council, and the core theme of the report is to liberalize childbirth, which brooks no delay.
The vice minister also suggested that Yunling City should take the lead in carrying out a pilot project of liberalizing childbirth.
Immediately afterwards, Xu Haodong spoke again at the meeting.
Xu Haodong's opening remarks said something related to him personally. "Leaders, distinguished guests, comrades, friends, I am a lucky person, a lucky person in the tide of family planning in the early 80s of the last century. I have an older sister above me, and my father is a worker in a military factory, and according to the rules, I am not qualified to come into this world. ”
"However, there is no end to it, and my mother is an agricultural household and an ethnic minority, which gave me an opportunity to be born. In this way, I am fortunate to have come into this world, and in this sense, I am qualified to stand here and speak. ”
There was laughter in the hall, that is, Xu Haodong, who dared to speak like this on such an occasion.
"Ladies and gentlemen, I fully agree with the deputy minister's speech that it is urgent to let go of childbirth. But there is one thing that I dare not agree with, and I firmly oppose it. That is, what the vice minister said should be carried out in Yunling to carry out the pilot work of liberalizing childbirth. ”
"Everyone knows that three and a half years ago, Yunling was just a county-level city. At that time, the registered population was less than 2.5 million, but now it has almost tripled. Although the land area of our Yunling has also doubled, the reality of the rapid population has brought tremendous pressure to our Yunling. ”
"As of today, there are as many as 1.37 million people who have applied to settle in our Yunling. Our population policy in Yunling has to be lenient to strict, and now 500,000 people are allowed to move in every year, and everyone queues up to move in according to the regulations. ”
"If, according to the vice minister, if we in Yunling City are allowed to give birth, then I dare to say that we will have 800,000 to 100,000 more newborn babies every year. I frankly admit that we in Yunling City are not ready to let go of childbirth. Of course, in two to three years, we in Yunling City will be able to meet the requirements of completely liberalizing childbirth. ”
"Therefore, Dear Comrade Deputy Minister, we also need to build more hospitals, more schools, kindergartens, nurseries, more houses, create more jobs, and the municipal treasury can have more people's livelihood expenditures...... In short, please spare Yunling City, Comrade Vice Minister. ”
The hall was full of laughter, and the deputy minister was even more laughing.