At the end of 1920, when Soviet Russia smashed the joint offensive of domestic and foreign opposition forces and turned to peaceful construction, Lenin proceeded from reality and gave up the idea of using the policy of war communism to make a direct transition to socialism, believing that it was necessary to implement the new economic policy. Do you know that Soviet Russia was really poor the year before last, how poor it was, and even the supply of sweet potatoes was difficult. The Russian top brass also had a meal, they destroyed the natural economy of the countryside, imposed a wartime system on the peasants that belonged to the state except for seeds, and seriously weakened the peasants' enthusiasm for production, which led to the famine that began in 1920.

Beginning in 1921, the surplus grain collection system was replaced by a grain tax, and farmers were free to dispose of their own grain after paying taxes. Industrial: domestic and foreign capitalists are allowed to operate certain small and medium-sized enterprises. Commercial: Abolish rationing in kind and resume the sale of goods. The implementation of the NEP made it possible for the crisis of the spring of 1921 to disappear quickly and production to recover steadily. It satisfies the economic requirements of laborers and is welcomed by the vast number of peasant workers. It explored ways and methods for building socialism in small peasant countries, promoted the development of productive forces, and created conditions for socialist industrialization and agricultural collectivization in Soviet Russia.

Soviet Russia seems to have weakened, but in essence it is a phoenix nirvana, brutally and brutally grinding the old system with a bloody knife and reconstructing a new state structure. As long as this country is given five or six years of development time, it will be a behemoth, but now we don't have to worry about him, he is in a weak period, and it is more difficult to speak badly than our country.

Let me focus on two countries that will have a huge impact on China in the next four to five years, and if we are not careful, we will jeopardize the opportunities we have at our disposal. I will talk about these two countries together.

One United States of America, one Japan State. There is an old saying in my country: Read 10,000 books, travel 10,000 miles. For a great country to be born, two prerequisites must be met: a vast territory and a large number of citizens.

The vast territory naturally provides an infinite supply of natural resources, from grazing and farming in ancient times to high-quality coal and iron ore in modern times. For example, the Chinese school in our country is divided into the North and South painting schools, and the martial arts have Southern Shaolin and Northern Shaolin, and it is precisely because of cultural diversity that the development of society will be promoted. Without competition, excellent ideas are not born.

A country relies on a copy of "The Tale of Genji" to win the world, this morning Matsushita-kun packed his bags and prepared to travel thousands of miles, OK, and in the evening he found that he had arrived in front of the Pacific Ocean. Only when he came home stupidly, he told his parents how to read 10,000 books on "The Tale of Genji", how to travel 10,000 miles in one day to the Pacific Ocean, and how my mother and I were born in a country with a big nose. The audience laughed, and Liang Qichao whispered to Lu Yongxiang: "My disciple, every time a witty remark becomes a pearl, it is a shame that he wants to come up with a big country." ”

Hu Wenkai paused, waited for the laughter in the audience to disappear, and continued:

After comforting his son, the elder Matsushita handed him a ticket to China and a handful*. Matsushita-kun came to China with a knife wielded.

didn't wait for the discussion below to subside, and the conversation changed.

Historically, the development of a country and its population have a great relationship with the size of the country, and the population determines the number of armies and elites. The necessary conditions for the rise of a world power are the revolutions in territory, resources and science and technology. In terms of probability, one scientist may be born in 10,000 people, and now China has a population of 400 million, which means that there may be 40,000 scientists in China, of course, this requires many prerequisites, such as education, economy, and political environment.

The narrowness of the territory is a bottleneck that prevents Japan from becoming a great power, and this has created the idea of hollowing out the Japanese to grab some territory from their neighbors. I will tell you about the two wars that interrupted China's incurrence.

China and Japan are separated by a strip of water, and in the trend of historical development, they always influence each other, but it has to be said that China has always driven Japan's development at critical moments, but Japan, every time at the critical moment and turning point of the Chinese nation's fortune, can always find Japan's ghostly figure, which has repeatedly shattered China's hope of "rising and rising", which is a nightmare that has made modern China sink repeatedly. This is a strong sense of island nations, for fear that a powerful China will deprive them of their living space.

The first time was far away in the Ming Dynasty, how did the Ming Empire fall, it is estimated that you can't help but say that it was a peasant uprising, Li Zicheng overthrew the Ming Dynasty with this-stirring stick, and the traitor Wu Sangui led the Qing soldiers into the customs. In the twentieth year of Wanli, that is, in 1592 AD, Japan's Kanbai Toyotomi Hideyoshi made the Japanese Warring States elite invade Korea. At the request of the Joseon Dynasty Lee, the suzerainty of the Ming Dynasty sent troops to rescue Korea.

Seven years later, the Japanese army was completely expelled from the Korean Peninsula, Toyotomi Hideyoshi died of anger, and at the ceremony of surrendering prisoners on the day of the triumph of the Ming Dynasty's army, the Wanli Emperor announced to dozens of vassal states: "Righteous and strong, those who jump off the beam, although strong, will be killed!" ”

This campaign had a profound impact on the political and military landscape of East Asia at that time. As a result, the Ming Dynasty was unable to suppress the Later Jin forces within twenty years, making the Jurchen tribe increasingly powerful, and finally posed a mortal threat to the Ming Dynasty. Seven years before and after the war. Although the Ming Dynasty won, it brought serious consequences: the war consumed a lot of manpower, material and financial resources of the Ming Dynasty, and increased the burden on the people; The war weakened the military strength of the Ming Dynasty and provided an opportunity for some ethnic minority leaders to develop their forces, such as Yang Yinglong of Panzhou who took the opportunity to launch a rebellion, and the Jurchens of Jianzhou rose rapidly, and so on. The Ming Dynasty, which had fallen into a full-scale political and economic crisis, finally fell to an end less than 50 years after the war.

At this time, China was already in the embryonic stage of capitalism, and if the Ming Empire had not perished, China would have been the first country to enter modern capitalism. In the middle and late Ming Dynasty, capitalist production relations, that is, employment relations, emerged in some handicraft sectors in the south of the Yangtze River.

It is manifested in three aspects: first, in Suzhou and Hangzhou, the center of the silk weaving industry, machine owners hire mechanics. Some large workshop owners, that is, "machine owners", use the accumulated funds to set up manual workshops - machine rooms, and hire machine workers to produce, that is, "machine owners contribute, machine workers contribute", and they form a relationship between employment and employment, machine owners are early capitalists, and machine workers are hired workers, and the relationship between the two is basically pure economy, that is, commodity money relations. The mechanic contributes his labor force into a commodity, and the machine owner contributes capital and pays the wages to the mechanic. Second, in Songjiang, the center of the cotton textile industry, contractors hired residents. Merchants in Songjiang, the center of the cotton textile industry in the Ming Dynasty, opened summer sock shops, and used abundant funds to purchase a large number of Youdun cloth (fine, soft three-gauze cloth improved on the basis of Wunijing quilt) to distribute summer socks to local residents, and pay wages by piece, so that an employment relationship was formed between merchants and residents. These contractors directly control production, which in essence is controlled by commercial capital, except that in the process, commercial capital is transformed into industrial capital. Third, employment relations also appear in Guangdong's iron smelting and iron manufacturing industries.

The most critical and significant one is the establishment of factory and health secret services in the Ming Dynasty, which shows that the feudal rulers could not manage the country by normal means, illustrated the decline of the feudal system, and was also a manifestation of the budding capitalism in the middle and late Ming Dynasty.

This issue is not the topic of today, I will pass it aside. The second interruption of China's process, as everyone knows, was the First Sino-Japanese War.

China and Japan, both Asian countries, started their modernization from roughly the same starting point, both beginning around the 60s of the 19th century. After 1885, Japan entered the stage of modern industrialization as the development of its manufacturing industry accelerated. However, at that time, Japan's national power was still not comparable to that of China.

In 1895, the Beiyang Navy and Army were completely annihilated, which to a certain extent declared the bankruptcy of the "self-improvement" of the Westernization Movement. After the First Sino-Japanese War, the foreign national industry collapsed. The Treaty of Shimonoseki provided for compensation of 200 million taels of silver for Japan's military expenses and allowed Japan to set up factories in China. This is because the great powers enjoy the privilege of "equalizing interests," that is, they formally recognize the legitimate right of foreign capital to invest directly in China, thus elevating the imperialist economic aggression against China from the export of commodities to the export of capital. The implementation of this regulation has directly led to the bankruptcy of China's private enterprises.

The sum of China's military spending, indemnity, and ransom alone amounted to 300 million taels of silver, and together with some other immeasurable direct economic losses, China's direct losses amounted to at least 500 million or 600 million taels of silver, equivalent to the total fiscal revenue of the Qing government for six or seven years. Japan's huge wealth has provided a strong financial guarantee for its domestic modernization, and it has taken advantage of this opportunity to complete the transformation from an industrial type dominated by light industry to an industrial type dominated by heavy industry. At the same time, Japan tasted the sweetness of war.

Now let's get down to business, what is the situation of Japan after World War I. Although Japan was the victorious country, Japan's industrial capacity was very weak and it could not withstand the blows of the industries of the United States and Europe. At the end of World War I, the economies of Britain, France, Germany and other countries had not yet recovered, and Japan received a large number of orders from American industry, and a large number of silk fabrics and ships were exported to the United States, and the economy was prosperous for a time. However, a large number of European and American goods flocked to the Japanese and Asian markets, and Japanese goods continued to decline, leading to an unprecedented economic crisis. Between 1920 and 1921, Japan's total industrial output fell by 19.9 percent, with shipbuilding 88.2 percent, mining 55.9 percent, machine building 55.9 percent, and pig iron 16.7 percent. Prices of major industrial products fell by 55%-82%. Exports fell by 40.3 percent, the balance of payments deficit reached 350 million yen, and foreign exchange reserves fell from 1.3 billion yen to 600 million yen.

Many people in our country think that Japan is a developed capitalist country, but in fact, Japan is at best a combination of feudal remnants and strange production technology of developed countries in Europe and the United States. First, he did not overthrow the imperial system, but opened his constitution and laws, and the whole article was the system of a decadent feudal dynasty.