On the review platform on the side of the training ground of the Mausoleum of the King of Shu, a group of wooden shelves rests a black lacquered wooden board more than a foot wide.

Wu Tai, who is in his middle age, drew a rough map of the western Liaoning corridor on the blackboard. The sea represented by the wavy lines, the mountains represented by the pointed horn symbols, and the castles represented by the quadrangular pattern are clearly visible on the topographic map.

The thin bamboo stick in Wu Tai's hand accurately hit a square pattern.

"Look, this is Jinzhou! Although Jinzhou is an important town, what is it called in military science? ”

"Deadland!" A young officer in the audience shouted.

"What is the place of death?" Wu Tai asked.

The young officer stood up from the crowd, and Zhu Pingjin, who was in the front row of the audience, looked back and saw that it was a Chengdu scholar named Zhang Wenjiang, who stood out in the Shu examination this time, and was now a probationary supervisor of the Huzhuang Cadre Squadron in Shifang County.

"Jinzhou is close to the sea on the left, the mountains on the right, the strong enemy is attacking, and the place of danger is also!"

Zhang Wenjiang paused for a moment, and then added: "Jinzhou is four hundred miles away from Shanhaiguan, and there is only a narrow corridor connecting to it. Zu Dashou rashly went out of Jinzhou, and the Tartars flanked his wings and attacked on all sides, then the back road of the Guanning army was cut off, and the army would be defeated due to lack of food! ”

It is not easy for Zhang Wenjiang to see this layer, which shows that he has carefully studied the characteristics of Jinzhou's topography. Zhu Pingjin nodded secretly. Sun Hong observed his words and immediately wrote down Zhang Wenjiang's name.

Wu Tai on the stage also affirmed Zhang Wenjiang's answer.

"Zu Dashou rashly built a city in Jinzhou, and this is the cause of his defeat!" Wu Tai came to his first conclusion.

Due to the insufficient supply of military food for the imperial court, and because the hereditary generals of the Guanning Army were also hereditary landlords, the Guanning Army had long coveted the fertile land of Jinzhou. After the fiasco of Dalinghe City in the fourth year of Chongzhen, Guan Ningjun has always been obsessed with Jinzhou and is unwilling to stay in Ningyuan City to eat a limited amount of imperial grain. They believed that as long as Jinzhou was built, they could control a large area of land in western Liaoning, and they could continue to ask the imperial court for a large amount of military pay on this ground. Zu Dashou was besieged, not only trapped all the Guanning army, but also kidnapped all the limited troops and military expenses of the imperial court.

"Inspector Hong's long-lasting strategy, at first glance, is stable and will not fail miserably, which is really wrong. This is the bane of its great defeat! ”

Wu Tai's tone was calm, but it was like thunder, disturbing the atmosphere of the venue.

Since the arrival of the angel, there has been a saying in the streets of Chengdu, saying that Inspector Hong advocates a long-term plan, first defend and then fight; However, a group of Beijing officials headed by Chen Xinjia, the secretary of the Ministry of War, advocated a quick victory on the grounds of supply difficulties and "too many soldiers and difficult salaries." Emperor Chongzhen first agreed with the correct opinions of Hong Chengchou and others, but under the prodding of the traitor Chen Xinjia and others, he changed his original intention and sent Zhang Ruoqi to Ningyuan to supervise the army. Hong Chengchou was besieged in Songshan, and many people put the responsibility on Chen Xinjia and Zhang Ruoqi. Zhu Pingjin's generals had also heard these statements, and when Wu Tai accused Hong Chengchou of making a big mistake in his enduring strategy, there was some commotion in the audience.

Wu Tai believes that Jinzhou is located at the northeastern end of the Liaoning West Corridor. If you rely on the land supply channel from Shanhaiguan, it is not only a long distance and a large loss, but more importantly, it is unsafe and there is a danger of being cut off at any time. Now that Huang Taiji has conquered the Mongol tribes, he has formed an external encirclement posture for the Liaoxi Corridor, and the Tatar cavalry can choose to kill from any mountain pass in the Liaoxi Corridor, thus cutting off the supply line of the Ming reinforcements.

Therefore, Hong Chengchou could only use the sea by sea, and Ningyuan City, Juehua Island, and Bijia Mountain near Lianshanyi on the shore of Liaohai Sea were the rear grain storage locations. If you want to attack Jinzhou, Bijia Mountain, which is closest to Songshan, is the best logistical starting point for the Jinzhou front. Bijia Mountain is about 80 miles from Jinzhou and Ningyuan; It is about sixty miles from Matsuyama; It is about forty miles away from Xingshan; It is only about ten miles away from Lianshan and Gaoqiao. Therefore, the logistics base chosen by Hong Chengchou does not look right.

So what's wrong with Hong Chengchou?

"Guanning's military quartermaster has exhausted its national strength! The saint promotes the war, and he has no choice but to do it! ”

Wu Tai explained that when Hong Chengchou left the customs, he brought 130,000 horses with him, plus the original garrisons in Ningyuan, Xingshan, Songshan and other places, the number of more than 150,000, about 50,000 horses, plus auxiliary soldiers and people, the number was 20,000 more.

How much food do these centaurs have to eat each month? Wu Tai wrote down a number on the blackboard for everyone on the spot: 85,000 stones of grain, 45,000 stones of beans, and 1 million bundles of forage. If we count the practice of 30% drifting in the sea transportation, then this number has increased to 120,000 stone of grain, 64,000 stone of beans, and 1.4 million bundles of forage!

Wu Tai further explained that according to Hong Chengchou's strategy, he must wait until the food and grass are ready before he can act. But since it is by sea, the grain ship departs from Tianjin Wei and various ports in Shandong, and the time to arrive at Bijia Mountain is not at all. Even if it is a few months late, the local officials responsible for transporting the grain can easily shift the blame to the vagaries of the sea.

So Hong Chengchou fell into a logistical circle: because of the huge consumption of grain and grass, he wanted to reserve more grain. Because he wanted to stock up on more grain, he had to continue waiting for the grain ships to arrive. While continuing to wait, consume more food.

Therefore, Hong Chengchou's long-term strategy is an out-and-out war of attrition, which not only competes with the Qing army for the consumption of food, but also competes with Zu Dashou for the consumption of life.

Hong Chengchou chose a war of attrition, and the loser must be Hong Chengchou. Because it is impossible for the reserves of the imperial court to maintain such a large army in Ningyuan for a long time, and the defenders of Jinzhou have reached a desperate situation of running out of oil and lamps.

Wu Tai asserted that with Hong Chengchou's level of strategic command, it was impossible for him not to see the fatal flaw in his strategy.

Hong Chengchou must know that his long-term strategy is a torment for Zu Dashou, who is waiting for help in Jinzhou City. Because of hunger, Zu Dashou's army is rapidly losing its combat effectiveness, so he will have to lose Zu Dashou's support under the city of Jinzhou, so that he can fight alone; Hong Chengchou also knew that his long-term strategy was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the Tartar side. They could repair their armies and improve their fortifications in a good time, and then launch a counterattack against the Ming troops who came to reinforce them.

Although Hong Chengchou must know this, he still has to persevere. Because the army in his hand is the last army that the Ming Dynasty can draw outside the Guan. With this army, the Ming Dynasty's Liaoxi defense line is there, and his political life is there. He has to be steady because he can't afford to lose. Therefore, his long-lasting strategy is essentially to stick to Ning Yuan, and in essence, to give up Zu Dashou. With the sacrifice of Zu Dashou and the consumption of Daming's national strength, in exchange for the stability of Ningyuan's defense line!

Hong Chengchou's enduring policy was in his own best political interests, but not in the political interests of the imperial court. It is impossible for the emperor to give up such an important military force as the Guanning army, and it is impossible for Hong Chengchou to sit back and watch the entire army of Zu Dashou be destroyed. Therefore, in this way, Hong Chengchou's demands are at odds with those of the emperor, courtiers, and Guan Ningjun. With four months of waiting with nothing to do, the emperor, courtiers, and Guan Ningjun had already seen through Hong Chengchou's true intentions, and naturally forced Hong Chengchou to send troops for a decisive battle. In this way, Hong Chengchou fell into the dilemma of not wanting to fight but having to fight.

Because of his own selfishness, strategic thinking is divorced from logistics reality, which is the root cause of Hong Chengchou's failure!

As for why Hong Chengchou concentrated all his troops on the front line, and neglected to guard against the rear, so that Huang Taiji could easily cut off the grain route of the army? Wu Tai said that he had too little accurate information in his hands to make a precise judgment. However, he deduced that since Hong Chengchou's heart was not willing to attack at all, his deployment was only an explanation of the various forces that demanded to attack.

Because of this, his deployment was in fact a speculative gamble, by replicating Yang Guozhu's victory in May, quickly breaking down the Qing army's defensive line on the outskirts of Jinzhou, and accomplishing his mission to rescue Jinzhou. Because of this, Hong Chengchou arrived at Songshan within two days after he swore an oath in Ningyuan, and quickly occupied the advancing high ground outside Songshan, Rufeng Mountain.

However, Hong Chengchou miscalculated. He did not expect that during the two months he was passively waiting, the Qing army was not idle. Through large-scale construction, the Qing army's external frontal defense line was already extremely strong, and it was impossible to break through it easily. Yang Guozhu continued his attack after occupying Rufeng Mountain, but soon suffered a defeat and was killed by an arrow.

The failure of Yang Guozhu's offensive put the Ming army in a confrontation with the enemy again, which immediately pushed Hong Chengchou into an embarrassing situation: there was no way to attack, and there was no reason to retreat. If you want to divide your troops and drill into a gap, you can kill your generals to escape. Hedgehogs are gathered in one place, so that they can strengthen each other's courage, and it is also convenient to monitor and control the group of fleeing generals under them. So the deployment of the 130,000 army has become a strange formation in Huang Taiji's eyes!

Wu Tai also said that according to his estimates, there is only so much grain that the imperial court can give Hong Chengchou. Hong Chengchou took these grains and ate them, and he had to make a result. He must not retreat without a fight, otherwise he will definitely not end well when he returns to Beijing. The constraints of logistics and politics make Hong Chengchou's tactics like a pawn crossing a river, and he can only move forward, not backward.

So when Hong Chengchou found out in mid-August that Huang Taiji had entered the front line with new troops, he had no choice but to fight a decisive battle with the Qing army. The movement speed of the Ming army was far inferior to that of the Qing army, and the hasty and chaotic retreat would only be overwhelmed by the Qing army pursuing on horseback, and one by one they were cut to the ground. Therefore, Hong Chengchou's strategy of shrinking first and then turning his head to attack is completely correct.

The success of the Qing army's sneak attack on Beacon Hill was only a tactical victory, not the end of the Ming army. The grain stock in Beacon Mountain is only a small part, and most of the grain stock is still in Ningyuan, and the troops will also carry a large amount of military food. If the Ming army defeated Huang Taiji in a decisive battle, not only would there be no food shortage, but the siege of Jinzhou would also be resolved.

However, the inferiority of the Ming official army was exposed again - Wang Pu, the general soldier of Datong, was "very cowardly" and ran away in advance. There are two when there is one. The soldiers scrambled to flee, and the whole army quickly collapsed, and was killed by a small group of Qing troops in ambush on the way. Only Wang Tingchen and Cao Bianjiao did not run, so they were trapped in Songshan together with Hong Chengchou and Qiu Minyang, the governor of Liaodong.

In the end, Wu Tai spoke out his conclusion:

"The defeat of Songjin is not defeated by food, but by spirit; Not defeated by the enemy, but defeated by oneself!

If we protect the caravan, even if we are surrounded by captives three times, surrounded on all sides, and run out of food, how can the enemy defeat our army without a fight?

The army has no fighting spirit, and will have no fighting spirit, even if it is carried with him, how can he get it all?

There are no ministers in the country, traitors and dynasties, no one is greedy and profane, and no one is afraid of death. Even if one or two can be good generals, how can they reverse the tide and save the world? ”