Chapter 32: The Big Short (19)

After expressing his views on Fisher and the speculators, Contini deliberately raised his voice and accentuated his tone: "I repeatedly emphasize one sentence: no country can prosper by speculating in stocks and real estate, and even if it occasionally succeeds for a while, it will eventually be liquidated by history, and the saddest thing is that the victims of the moment of reckoning are also the victims of speculation - this is what makes me the most sad." ”

"I'm Thomas, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, will the United Group continue to reduce its stock holdings?"

"In fact, we have already issued a statement on reducing the number of shares, but everyone has not paid attention to it at the beginning, and now that it has fallen, we find that the United Group is reducing its stock holdings, and we are actually victims - if there is no run pressure, what will I do to raise funds by reducing my stock holdings?" Contini said coldly, "What to do in the future, we will deal with it according to the actual needs of the market, all in all, the United Group will use up the last $1 for the defense of the Union Bank!" ”

Everyone can't blame the United Group, this is indeed their power, but when they think of the sword of Damocles that the 100000000000000 stocks on the stock market may fall at any time, everyone feels that the risk in the future market is indeed very great.

On September 18, the stock market did not fall sharply this time, but began to consolidate and rest, but the bonds that had not fallen much in the previous two days showed signs of large-scale selling, not only the long-term bonds of the United Group were sold, but also the bonds of other large conglomerates. Contini knew that the effect of his shouting to the market emerged, many institutions are reducing their holdings of bonds to offset the stock margin to reduce leverage, the reason why they are unwilling to reduce leverage by reducing their holdings is because there is still a trace of luck in their hearts, thinking that this time is just a fake fall similar to the previous two times, and they will eventually get up, if they get off now, it will be difficult to get on the bus again.

So Livermore's operation became a small harvest, climbing over 390 points to press, less than 380 points to close, with repeated back and forth oscillations to squeeze oil - now is the best time for traders to perform individually, the big ups and downs actually can't see the trader's skills, this technique is a test of the trader's actual combat ability.

"Hooray!" The 12 traders couldn't help but cheer.

It is very boring to throw big orders and receive large orders, and they can only see their level by placing orders with flexible operation, only to see their fingers flying, drawing arrows on the telex paper, and then passing the data to the trading seats, through such repeated harvesting, they also got more than 50 million US dollars in a day, and then all went to undertake the long-term bonds of the United Group sold by the outside world - under the large-scale purchase of the United Trust, the current long-term bonds of the United Group are less than 50 million US dollars - These positions do not emerge unless there is an extreme panic.

Withdrawals from Union Bank are still continuing, but now there are significantly fewer new withdrawals, and institutional withdrawals are beginning to increase - although shareholders are annoyed that United Group took the lead in reducing their holdings, but depositors think that the president is good, he is a responsible person, and only by reducing his holdings of stocks can he have money to deal with the run, and now everyone is more confident that the United Group can hold out for a few more days. In society, one faction is also pro-Contini, and the other faction is anti-lip ridicule.

In the middle of the night, Francisco went outside for a walk, visited the crowd still queuing to withdraw money, chatted with them, and gave the security guard a number for them to go home and rest, and they could come back tomorrow morning with the number, and there was no need to queue up - many depositors paid attention to Contini's speech, and everyone had mixed feelings when they heard that the president advised everyone to reduce their shares.

Someone asked, "Mr. Francisco, is the stock really going down?" ”

Francisco smiled: "The president said that it will fall several times, the difference is when it will fall, how much it will fall, you asked me to say specifically which day it will fall, which day it will fall sharply, I can't tell you the exact answer, but there is no doubt that I am not optimistic about the market outlook, which does not have to be hidden." ”

"Won't the Wall Street tycoons come to the rescue?"

"How to save? Now that the money is so nervous, aren't you also afraid that you won't be able to get the money and come to the queue? If everyone can promise not to withdraw money, will there be a run on the market? In the same way, if everyone could agree not to sell stocks, would the stock market fall? Francisco said helplessly, "We can't do it, so we can only do our best......

On September 19, the stock market was once again consolidating, and even closed a doji - it seemed to be at the equilibrium point. So all kinds of remarks appeared in the market, and many people promoted: "Don't be afraid, this is a technical adjustment, and it will rise!" ”

This kind of self-talk shouting has also infected many people, everyone is expressing a cautious and bullish attitude, even Fisher, who was a little disheartened two days ago, also regained his strength when interviewed by reporters: "I called the president and asked for my opinion, but it doesn't mean that I admit defeat...... What, you say applying for financial aid? I'm joking with him, he's a big deal, so I'll see if I can beat the autumn breeze - my assets are enough to withstand a 20% drop from the current base, do you believe it will continue to fall by 20%? I don't believe it anyway. ”

However, Livermore sees very clearly that the downward force of the disk silt is getting bigger and bigger, as the saying goes, "the market will fall for a long time", depending on how the stock market will fall - whether it is mainly a yin decline, or a consolidation first, and then a painful plunge.

At the press conference in the past two days, everyone asked about the topic of the run, and it seems that the United Bank has no problem dealing with small and medium-sized depositors at present, but it seems that the relationship between the docking institution and the lending has not been completely straightened out, which is widely criticized by the market. As for Contini's judgment on the market outlook, since there was neither an increase nor a fall, Contini and the reporters tacitly stopped talking to each other.

Just as the situation was slowly evolving, a conspiracy around the United Group and the Union Bank was also being organized, and the six bankers who had initially used the stability maintenance fund to stabilize the market structure gathered together to discuss the harvest of the Union Bank. Mitchell has been positive, and he has received a clear message from the board that they have approached the Fed and that they will not let down their pressure on Union Bank because of Hoover's pressure and ideas. This was even recognized by Mellon, who and Hoover were clearly not exactly of the same mind.

"Gentlemen, the news will spread soon, and it will be better to circulate this afternoon, enough to have a weekend of brewing, and then we will join forces to bring down the share price of Union Bank on Monday, triggering a panic selling, and then we will take it over at the right time, so that there is a possibility of gradually increasing the share of shares at a low level."

"You Citi want to annex Union Bank?"

"No, no, no, we don't have that intention, we just express our concern about it and hope that we can cooperate in other areas." Mitchell did not disclose the content of the "cooperation" - the backstage boss has already said that Union Bank is the financial tentacle of the United Group, and it cannot be moved, and if it moves, it will be to lift the table, but it seems that the Bailang multi-interest patent of United Medicine can be moved, and it is best to buy out the drug directly - there are also tens of millions of profits a year here, and it is preliminarily judged that Contini will be willing to cut the meat - as long as he wants to keep other more important industries.

"Will that lead to a sharp drop in the stock market?"

"So we have to go short as soon as the market opens, and this afternoon we can ambush some short lists, of course, not too much, and let the market close smoothly as much as possible."

The others glanced at each other and agreed with the idea: everyone had worked hard for 2 days, and found that it was too tiring to pull up, so it was better to look down and play a dozen more. What the? You say that the stability maintenance fund is unanimously optimistic about the market outlook? Don't be stupid, the stability maintenance fund is for making money, not for being a philanthropist. Just as some national teams can't lose money, how can a stability maintenance fund set up by a Wall Street tycoon not make money?

Friday, September 20th.

This morning, a reporter interviewed an official of the Federal Reserve, who revealed that Union Bank currently has $600 million in loans from the Federal Reserve and $1.4 billion in other banks, and the rest has not yet been returned except for the $100 million. Among them, 300 million are due within one month, 800 million are due within 3 months, and the rest are due in 6-12 months.

Although it is normal for a loan to be renewed at the end of the term, the Fed has hinted that given Union Bank's record of large external loans, it will not roll over or renew loans even if President Hoover presses them, and as for whether other banks will renew or renew their loans, the Fed will not interfere in the specific affairs of other banks.

Journalists in the financial circle have been in the financial circle for a long time, how can they not understand the voice of the Federal Reserve? - You see, I don't plan to continue borrowing, do you still want to borrow? Don't blame me for not reminding me when the time comes.

This is where the whole Wall Street capital circle works: with Mellon as a link, Wall Street tycoons are ready to take advantage of the Fed's pressure to take advantage of Union Bank - whoever told you to rather reduce your holdings of stocks than come to us to ask for 25% interest on the "bailout" money, you "break the rules." "Since Contini refuses to go to the road, he can only toast and not eat and drink: take the initiative to release the regulatory atmosphere, let the market suppress the Union Bank, and at the same time stop lending and renewing loans, and pressure the United Group to give up benefits.

Don't look at the tycoons who are usually polite to Contini, "Calais is long and Calais is short", and at the critical moment, except for the green ticket, nothing else is recognized! Isn't it the same with Contini?

Just as they were about to ask about the news at the press conference of the United Group on Friday night, they suddenly received a notice from the press office of the President of the United Group that the press conference originally scheduled for Friday had been postponed to Sunday evening due to major matters that needed to be announced.

What exactly is a big deal? Reporters couldn't resist inquiring, and in the end there was only a faint piece of news: the United Group was meeting behind closed doors, and the topic might be how to respond to the Fed's hints, an explanation that quickly convinced everyone, so I was especially looking forward to what Contini would say at Sunday night's press conference.

Some people are worried that the stock market will continue to fall, but some people think that the United Bank and the United Group are currently a time bomb, and they don't know when it will explode, so it is better to take the initiative to clear the mines.

Hoover, who used to be a little bit of a fuss, was not ready to call Contini at this time, because the Fed had made up its mind, and he couldn't be shaken in his eagerness, and the call would only provoke Contini's questions and criticism, and Mellon didn't care - this was originally a unanimous decision on Wall Street, although Contini was only a second-generation Italian, and the United Group was just an outsider? Who do you eat if you don't eat?

"Calais, I heard the news that the Federal Reserve is ready to cooperate with the consortium to suppress us." Francisco frowned and said, "Either Mellon is making trouble in the back, or Morgan is making trouble in the back, all in all, someone must have a problem......"

Contini nodded: "I know, but don't be afraid, I can't ask for it, I have nuclear weapons ready for them!" ”

"Nuclear weapons? What is this? ”

Contini found that he was in a hurry to say something, so he covered it up: "It's nothing, it's just a powerful weapon, enough to change the pattern of the whole world!" ”

Many years later, Francisco wrote in his diary: Before the crisis broke out in 1929, the president said that he would use nuclear weapons to detonate it - I didn't understand it at the time, but now I finally understand, and I wonder why the president knew about it so godly at that time. I made a sneaky inquiry once, and the president prevaricated me with the results of the cutting-edge research and deduction of nuclear physics at that time, but I found that he still has a lot of secrets, and even I can't see clearly, could it be that he is the illegitimate child of God? Thankfully, such a character was born in Italy! It actually has a relationship with our family...... Vivian is really discerning, and I'm ashamed of being a father! Consider oneself inferior to another! Consider oneself inferior to another!

He expressed his amazement with three consecutive "shames", and Vivian later found this page of the diary after he died, when she packed up her belongings - she thought about it for a long time and burned it. There are some things that it is not good to know too much, and women have to learn to pretend to be confused.

"Let's get Mr. Livermore over first." Contini changed the subject at the right time, and when Livermore arrived, he asked the other party bluntly: "How many short positions have you reached?" ”

"According to your requirements, it has reached 5 billion, if it is not enough, you can add another 2-300 million this afternoon, and I am afraid that more will cause market changes."

Contini shook his head: "It doesn't matter, the news has come out, you can go to a wave...... Let's get 5.5 billion. ”

Livermore nodded solemnly: he also knew what the news was, and he was sweating for the future of Union Bank - it was really uncomfortable for so many old guys who ate people and didn't spit out bones on the other side.

"What? Scared? Any idea why I got the press conference until Sunday night? ”

Livermore shook his head.

"I have a surprise package for them!" Contini slowly stood up and walked to the huge floor-to-ceiling windows, looked out the streets of Manhattan, and spat out a sentence that Livermore will never forget, "It's not that I look down on them, in my eyes, these so-called investors and speculators are all rubbish!" Only me and you are worthy of this era! ”

"President, it's just you, I'm just a butler......" Livermore said respectfully.

Contini laughed: "Jesse, you are humble again, listen to me, enjoy it after you make money from shorting, don't rush to copy the bottom ...... in the future"

"Okay......

"Tell the press, we'll see you on Sunday!" Mediterranean hegemon