Before the stock market closed, Hoover's phone call had already been slashed: "Calais, how did you reduce your stock?" This is a big blow to market confidence. ”

"Your Excellency, I can't help it...... "Contini said aggrievedly, "how can I deal with the run if I don't reduce my holdings?" Since yesterday, 150 million funds have flowed out of the United Bank system, if I can't contain the risk, other banks will fall like dominoes, not only can you not criticize me, but you should affirm and appreciate me, our United Group is the mainstay of defending the financial stability of the United States! ”

Hoover was so choked by this sentence that he almost couldn't lift it in his breath, and said a little unhappily: "Since you have difficulties, why don't you bring it up?" Everyone can figure out a way together, and the interbank industry is not incapable......"

"Your Excellency, I can't afford this ability, do you know how much interest they want?" Contini said in an exaggerated tone, "The annual interest rate of 25%, which is 5 percentage points higher than the current highest stock margin loan interest, do you think I will take this knife or reduce my holdings?" I can still sell it for a good price if I reduce my holdings. ”

"You can ...... to the Fed"

"The Fed says I ...... unless I pull back the positions that I have transferred"

"Then draw it back......"

"Your Excellency, I have repeatedly explained that this is a matter of credibility, why do you have to withdraw it? Isn't it the same if I reduce my holdings to raise funds? It is my responsibility to maintain the stability of the Union Bank, but it is not my responsibility to maintain the stability of the stock market...... Besides, it's also my right to reduce my holdings, so I can't move any stocks, right? Then why do you want to open the door to the stock market and engage in capital trading? Take 10,000 steps back and say, isn't the decline something the Fed likes to see? They have spent so much time to suppress the stock market, and now they are finally starting to see results, you let me do this or that, have you considered their feelings? ”

Hoover was overwhelmed by his angry words, and hurriedly said: "Okay, okay, I understand that it's not easy for you, what are you going to do now that the stock market is like this?" ”

"This is a question for the Fed, ......are they satisfied with the current decline," Contini said, "Besides, the stock market doesn't have a stability fund at the moment, they can play a role and value, they called me in the afternoon and wanted me to buy back a little bit, and then I bought back some of the shares - 40% of the sale was bought back." ”

Hoover was relieved to hear that Contini had bought back another 40 percent, and indeed he also thought it was unreasonable not to allow the United Group to reduce its holdings, and Contini's willingness to work together seemed to be the only way to do it at the moment. And as he said, after two consecutive days of sharp declines, the stock market has entered a relatively reasonable valuation range, which may be better for long-term development. The run has only been 2 days and there is no problem, but if it is 5-6 days, the Union Bank has no problem, and he believes that this matter can finally be settled. So he comforted Contini a few words and hung up the phone, turning to Mellon and the others to figure out a way.

At 7 o'clock that night, the press conference was held as usual, and this time there were more people pouring in, because many people had received the news of the United Group's reduction of shares from other sources, and saw that the Dow Jones index had not been able to regain 380 points at the end of the day, which was great bad news for the market, and they couldn't wait to inquire about the news, Alessandro reported three news before starting:

"First, since September 16, in 36 hours of uninterrupted work, the United Bank has jointly withdrawn $190 million from depositors, and the entire revenue and expenditure system is still stable, and we have the ability to provide sufficient liquidity for depositors;

Second, the United Group today reduced its holdings of more than $300 million in shares to supplement the liquidity of the United Bank, and in the afternoon, President Hoover had a telephone conversation with the president out of the hope of stabilizing the stock market, and at his request, the Group repurchased 40% of the shares, and the remaining part of the reduction has not yet been withdrawn, and the other peers who have not yet recovered the dismantling of the United Bank do not need to worry about the market outlook;

Thirdly, the United Group will continue to fulfill its commitment to not stop working 24 hours a day until the people queuing up to withdraw money get the desired results, and the Bank will pay three times the salary of employees who have worked overtime recently this month to express condolences! Let's move on to the free question time. ”

There was a buzz in the venue, everyone didn't expect the United Group to admit today's shareholding reduction so quickly, and they didn't expect Hoover to call the president directly - in fact, Contini was giving Hoover face, and the 40% was repurchased before the call, and Hoover should know about it.

"May I ask the president, is there a suspicion of inconsistency when you were optimistic about the U.S. stock market, advocating that 300 points is the starting point of a new round of bull market in the United States, and now you are reducing your holdings of stocks?"

Contini said unhurriedly: "There are a couple of issues to look at separately. First, I said that 300 points is the starting point of a bull market, and what was the highest point of the stock market in September, folks? More than 450 points! From 300 points to 450 points, it has risen by 150 points, and the U.S. stock market has spent nearly 4 years from the start to the confirmation of the stock market, and the first 4 years have only risen by 200 points, and the next year has risen by more than 150 points. It turns out that I am not only right, but also very timely, when I said this sentence was less than 280 points, even if I had not played the stock a day before, at that time I rushed into the investment at least to earn more than half, if you add 2-3 times leverage, you have already bought a car and a house to become a winner in life...... Secondly, the stock market could have risen even higher, and I thought it was possible to rise by more than 500 points, but because of the United - I'm sorry, I promised the president that I wouldn't scold people anymore, I'm a civilized person, and I'm in public, so I will do what I say......"

The crowd burst into laughter!

"Because some institutions have implemented a policy of brain-opening - brain-opening is not a curse, is it?" While talking to himself, Contini said, "Desperately suppressing the stock market, I can't wait to go straight to the battlefield shirtless to drag down the stock market points, desperately introduce some policies that run counter to the interests of the vast majority of American investors, in the name of controlling risks, protecting the interests of small and medium-sized investors, in their life dictionary, losing money or making less money is the interest of small and medium-sized investors, otherwise it is difficult to explain this motive." ”

Everyone laughed again: the president said that he didn't scold, and he did it, although he didn't use a dirty word here, but he scolded the Federal Reserve to the fullest.

"Based on this position and judgment of the situation, so this round of the big bull market I think is almost, it's time for a pullback - this is the second sentence I said, I am not optimistic about the follow-up development of the stock market I said a few months ago, I repeatedly emphasized at that time, if some policies are enforced, the stock market will encounter a severe test, how the facts have been, measured by the data and market trends in the past two days, it means that I am right again!" Contini smiled, "I think you should send me a golden prophecy trophy to show that I still have the ability to see, not to close my eyes and talk nonsense, let alone speak with a clear conscience." ”

There was a round of applause from the audience, and Contini said two no, so who is? The answer is self-explanatory!

"Are you still optimistic about the market outlook? Is this decline a preparation for a better rise? Just like last November, March this year. ”

"I think it's basically hard." "I've heard a lot of investors jumping off buildings in the past two days, why did the stock market go down from its peak of only 20% to force them to jump off buildings?" Because their leverage is too heavy, they are generally leveraged at 8 times or 10 times, and some people even borrow part of the principal by scraping together - some irresponsible small banks provide funds in the form of consumer credit in violation of regulations, nominally commercial credit, but in fact they are called 'principal loans' in the circle - this is used to speculate in the stock market, and those who speculate in real estate are called 'down payment loans'...... All in all, what you see on your face is 8-10 times leverage, but in fact their leverage is as high as 15-20 times, and with just one point dive, their account will be wiped out, and jumping off a building is a relief from despair. It's the last performance!

Now the market value of the stock market has fallen below 60 billion, if it wants to rise by another 10%, it will need 6 billion funds, even if it is 4-5 times leverage, it will also require 12-1.5 billion funds, which is a very large number, because the previous deleveraging also needs to increase investment. In other words, if we want to keep the principal safe in the face of such a violent shock, we must reduce the leverage ratio - one is to reduce the deleveraging by reducing the number of stocks, and the other is to increase the investment to deleverage, for the United Group, we are mainly reducing the stock deleveraging, because the United Group has a large credit exposure, we must ensure credit, it doesn't matter to us a little more or less stocks, for ordinary people, they may need additional funds, which will put the banking system to the test. The information I got today is that not only is there a run on Union Bank, but the number of withdrawals from other major banks is also increasing, and everyone is adding their own liquidity, and it is impossible to rebuild consensus after this expectation is changed.

The last and most fundamental judgment is from the economic data: from 1923 to the present, the US stock market has risen by more than three and a half times and nearly four times in six years, and among the world's major powers, Italy has performed the best, the output value of industry, especially heavy industry, has doubled, light industry has increased by 80%, agriculture has increased by 40%, and all other countries are below this figure, and the growth rate of American industry may not exceed 50%, and agriculture may only be 10-15%, at most 20%, and you have a more comprehensive grasp of these data than me. I use a not very appropriate analogy, the economic basis is gravity, the stock market points are the upward launch of cannonballs, although at the beginning of the violent shells will seem to fly faster and higher out of the limits of gravity, but in the end it is still inevitable to be constrained and fall back to the ground - stock points may outperform the actual economic data by a large margin, but in the end it is inevitable to be consistent with the fundamentals - it is impossible to create a strong country or a strong economic system out of thin air by stock market speculation. ”

There was silence as everyone began to ponder Contini's words.

Another reporter stood up and asked: "You mean, the stock market has risen almost 4 times and should fall back to the 150-180 point position?" How does this match the economic data? ”

Contini sneered in his heart: At the height of the Great Depression, the US stock market will fall to a lower position than it began to rise, and the Dow Jones even set an unprecedented record of 47 points, although I don't know how this time, but at least a fall below 100 is expected, of course he can't say this - there are still more than 370 points.

"As I have said, sometimes the economy runs fast, sometimes the stock market runs fast, and if the two can be measured by precise mathematics or formulas, then I can guarantee that the most profitable must be mathematicians or astronomers, but as far as I know, there is no mathematician or astronomer who makes a fortune from the stock market, and that kind of thing does not exist for the time being. Even a great physicist like Isaac Newton was swallowed up by speculative bubbles, and you must have heard his famous quote that I can calculate the laws of the heavenly bodies, but I cannot calculate the degree of greed of the human heart.

Now there is a professor who is more famous for engaging in stock speculation, and I know one - Mr. Fisher. In the past two days, his wealth has shrunk a lot, and today he called me and asked me how I see the market outlook, and tentatively asked me if I could support him with some funds. I said that I am not optimistic about the market outlook, but you have no problem asking for money, I personally appreciate your knowledge, it is no problem to support dozens or even millions, the only requirement, first give me the accounts in hand to clear the position, he said to consider it again...... You see, it is harder to touch interests than souls! Last week, he and I had our own opinions at the Investor Summit, and he didn't agree with me at that time, but today the situation is completely different, although he has not yet admitted defeat and refuses to lose his position, but he has begun to doubt in his heart. I'm not optimistic about his investment prospects, he's too optimistic about the stock market! ”

The reporters immediately wrote down these contents, and Fisher actually called the president today? It seems that he is not determined to be determined either? You must know that he used to be full of confidence and bullishness......

"Mr. Fisher is a professor I respect very much, he has a good set of economics, he invests in stocks and applies what he has learned, accumulates data and experience, just like I invest in stocks to cooperate with the industrial operation of the United Group, I am very disgusted that others call me an investor - I am an industrialist, not an investor, and investment is incidental to me! United Group is the first industrial group in Italy, and it is also the most comprehensive, the most promising and technological multinational consortium in the world, which is my foundation.

I am even more disgusted by the fact that those speculators who got rich overnight by relying on stocks make a lot of nonsense in the media: they ridicule those honest and conscientious operators, entrepreneurs, skilled workers, and skilled workers, saying that they do not earn as much as they make in a day of hard work in the stock market, and that it is easy to earn. In my opinion, this is completely putting the cart before the horse, the latter is the backbone of the American nation, as long as they are still there, and the industry is still there, even if the stock market plummets by half or more tomorrow, the United States will not collapse; On the other hand, if these people are also attracted by the frenzied stock market, keen to make quick money, make speculative money, even if the US stock market continues to double tomorrow, I think the country is finished! "Hegemon of the Mediterranean