Chapter 27: The Big Short (14)
"Listen to my instructions, and when it falls below 390 points, close one-eighth of the position, spread it as much as possible, don't concentrate on individual stocks, and the orders are mainly small orders and high frequencies, not large orders." After a moment of contemplation, Livermore gave new orders to the 12 traders.
"Yes, boss!" A trader couldn't help but respond.
Livermore hurriedly said: "How many times have you said it, don't call me boss, the boss is sitting in the back, what if he hears it?" ”
"That's the big boss! Forehead...... President! ”
A bunch of people burst into laughter, and the air was filled with a cheerful atmosphere......
Just as Livermore gave the order, Citibank President Mitchell also paid close attention to the market trend, pondered for a while, made a phone call, muttered a few words, and nodded: "Okay, I understand." ”
As soon as he put down the phone, he issued an order to his subordinates: "Throw out the fixed long-term bonds of the United Group, and then buy back some of the shares of the United Group in the market, first of all, the ......shares of the United Bank."
"What about the price of the reduction?"
"It's good to be higher than the original cost."
"How much?"
"Don't care about the quantity, how much you can throw is how much, throw it out first, and then say, if you can sell, it is a victory! If you can't go to the volume, it's okay to lower it appropriately, and we have to withdraw the funds. "Mitchell was anxious," I just called the president, and he said he was confident in dealing with the run, so he did so. ”
Someone below muttered: Why is that? Selling United Group bonds to buy shares does not avoid risks, but magnifies them.
"Pig brains!" Mitchell scolded angrily, "Whoever wants to avoid risks, now buy more shares of Union Bank, we have the opportunity to control, even if we can't control it, it is good to increase our influence...... The Board has other considerations. ”
Bond liquidity is much worse than stocks, under the pressure of Citibank, 40 million United Group long-term bonds were quickly sold out, the regular trading price was 107-109 US dollars, after the fermentation of the incident, Citi directly hit the price to about 100 US dollars, and then triggered a bunch of followers, the price went straight to 98, and then stopped a little to 95.
However, Mitchell's subordinates never dreamed that the other party was not telling the truth at all, he was not on the phone with Contini just now, he was calling Standard Statistics. It is the oldest rating agency on Wall Street, established by Henry Vanum Poole in 1860, published "The History of the Railroad" and "The American Canal", and pioneered the establishment of the financial information industry with the purpose of "investors have the right to know".
In the future, there are two other rating agencies on a par with Standard & Poor's, one is Moody's, but at the moment Moody's is still a subsidiary of Dun & Bradstreet (an internationally renowned consulting agency), and the other is Fitch International, which is more focused on European affairs at the moment.
Standard & Poor's credit rating for the long-term bonds of the United Group is A-, A is the third level in the rating, and there are two main grades of AAA and AA above, for the appropriate distinction, there are two auxiliary symbols of +-, in fact, the United Group can reach AA in the minds of Wall Street investors, but because the Italian national sovereignty rating is only A, coupled with the inseparable relationship between the United Group and the Italian state as a whole, most of the United Bonds are rated A-, A series and BBB series are standard investment grade, The other B grades are speculative grades, and by the time they reach the CCC, they are junk grades, and there is a high probability of default.
[Author's note: The three major rating companies have a series of data assistance in the rating process, although it cannot be said to be completely credible, but compared with the practice of a certain country represented by Dagong International to rate bonds AAA at every turn, I don't know how much fairer, so other ratings other than AAA in a certain country can not be seen, all are garbage grades, there is no need to distinguish, and more than half of the AAA ratings are only speculative, you should be careful to step on the thunder......]
Mitchell's question to Standard is whether the credit rating of the United Group bonds will be downgraded, and if so, by how much?
According to the confidentiality norms, Standard Company can refuse to answer, but Mitchell is a Wall Street boss and a member of the New York Federal Reserve, so he has to give some face, and he can't refuse outright, and the answer he gave is very vague: "We are currently in a meeting to discuss, and judging from the situation in the morning, although the Union Bank has been impacted, there have been no major problems in its ability to perform the contract, so you know ......."
This sentence means that it is imperative to reduce the down, but the amplitude will not be too large, and Mitchell knows it as soon as he hears it.
"Someone sold the long-term bonds of the United Group in the interbank market, and the price has now fallen to $95, and the trading volume has increased 8 times more than usual, and has exceeded $80 million......"
Bonds are generally issued at the face value of $100 with coupon payment, so if the interest rate is attractive and the rating is high, it is generally traded at a discount above the face value, and now it falls below par, which means that the market is not optimistic about the bond.
"Who's selling?"
"I can't see it, but it's not small, at least it's a big bank."
Contini frowned: "Which rating company lowered our rating?" ”
"Not yet, but both Moody's and Standard have said they will make a statement on whether to downgrade the bond based on the actual situation."
"It seems that someone has leaked the news, at least judging from the rapidly amplified sell-off, it will definitely be lowered." "I just don't know how much it's going to go down, or I'm going to call them?" ”
Contini shook his head: "How much of an impact?" ”
"If the current rating is downgraded from A- to BBB, it could take the bond below $90, and if it goes to BB, it could fall below $80."
"What can I do to get them down to BB?"
"Calais, BB is going to the speculative level......"
"Speculative-grade...... Let them fall, it's better if it falls below 80. Contini smiled, "I'll pick it up at that time - not to mention the money, you can also get a discount." ”
Francisco instantly understood his thoughts: if the price of the bond fell below 80, then if the United Group, which was issued at $100, buys it off and writes it off, it is equivalent to paying off it with $80 - even the interest does not have to be paid again, of course, the premise is that the repayment is written off, which is to be paid out with real money.
"But that would disrupt our strategy, and now the money is ready for use."
"Then it depends on whether Livermore can harvest an additional wave, what is the difference between a joint trust purchase and a group buyback?" Contini smiled, "If you buy something in your right pocket with your left hand, you may have to pay an extra tax, but are we afraid of paying taxes?" I spend more than several times my taxes on buying equipment for the army and navy every year! You have to remember that we do rush to make money, but don't make money like ordinary Wall Street adventurers with defaults, debt swaps, asset restructuring and other notorious ways, I never consider default, and the brand of the United Group is not earned back by default and cheating, I rely on strength, relying on planes in the sky, battleships in the sea, and tanks on the ground to ensure credibility! If I default now, how will I sit in that position in the future? ”
"That's just as well." Francisco also laughed: the United Group is the company with the least incentive to evade taxes in Italy, and the tax authorities never inspect it.
Livermore came over and reported: "President, it's below 390 points...... It is said that someone has jumped off the building. ”
"How many?"
"There is only 1 for the time being...... This guy may be too poor. ”
"It's not that the tolerance is too poor, it's that the leverage is too high, and it's too greedy." Contini shook his head, "Even if he doesn't jump this time, he will jump next time, no one can save him, you go on, there seems to be a little less ...... people jumping off the building"
Livermore's face froze, and then he continued to work as if nothing had happened: the president was right, those who jumped off the building were too greedy, and if they didn't pick this time, they would jump next time, and their job should be to purify society and educate investors about risks.
At 2:47 p.m., the Dow Jones touched 380 points, and then a little bit down, data-wise, this has broken through the lowest point in August, opening the trouble of further decline, but from the disk, the selling has decreased a lot, which is a signal of the day's initial bottom, but whether it is a rebound, a reversal or a downward relay, completely needs to be further observed. The floating profit of the United Trust has exceeded 700 million, and Livermore and 12 traders are slowly closing the stock positions with the largest decline with small orders.
It is said that it is a small order, but in fact, hundreds of thousands of dollars are coming in every minute, although these orders are not enough to completely withstand the selling pressure above, but at least they do not let the stock price continue to fall into the abyss.
At 3 o'clock, the Dow Jones index regained 390 points, and there was a wave of buy orders on the market - such buy orders appeared many times in the morning, and each time they were swallowed up by more turbulent orders, so that Livermore did not have a decent follower when he first placed buy orders, so the traders' orders were quickly filled.
At 3:19, the stock index stabilized at 395 points, and the position of the United Trust has been closed by more than one-eighth, which means that nearly 90 million profits are in place in the case of an overall floating profit of nearly 700 million yuan.
"The president said that the plan has changed temporarily, and 50 million US dollars will be allocated to the bond account, and he is ready to undertake the long-term bonds of the United Group tomorrow and the day after tomorrow."
Looking at the bond price and the related trading volume, Livermore took a deep breath, instantly understood Contini's thoughts, and said: "I think we can wait a little longer, there must be news for such a big sell-off." ”
Francisco smiled: "You guessed it, Moody's called Standard and said that we would downgrade our credit rating by one level tonight, but promised that it would not be adjusted again until it continued to deteriorate." ”